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Canada 2026

Kanada

Canada enters 2027 with electricity that is largely non-emitting, an oil and gas sector that still produced 30% of national emissions in 2024, a freshwater endowment that is vast in total but thin where people live, and a hazard regime in which şewata daristanan, hail, flood and ice storms now set the pace of losses. National emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and almost unchanged on 2023.

Read the editionRûbirûbûna metirsiyê
Encam
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
4 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Çavkanî
48
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Canada in six readings.

Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 41.5millionpopulation, 2025 [11]
  • 8.79million km²land area [32]
  • ≈9%of the world’s forests [31]
  • ≈83%electricity from non-emitting sources [9]
  • ≈⅓of world potash output [30]
  • 12.4% GDPhealth spending, 2024 [21]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATAv1 finding

    ≈7% Share of the world’s renewable freshwater, long-run mean. Raportkirî

    Abundant in total, scarce where people and farms are; drought on the Prairies and in southern British Columbia is the binding stress.

  2. ENEEnerjî2 findings

    50 Mt CO₂e Electricity-sector emissions, 2024. Raportkirî

    Low-emitting power; emissions concentrated in oil and gas; hydro output exposed to dry years.

  3. INFBinesazînot assessed

    Long, thin corridors carry trade; gateways have shown capacity and continuity limits.

  4. FOOXwarin0 findings

    70 Mt CO₂e Agriculture-sector emissions, 2024. Raportkirî

    A major exporter of grains, oilseeds and potash; yields swing with Prairie drought.

  5. HLTTenduristî1 finding

    619 deaths Heat-related deaths, 2021 heat dome (BC), 2021. Raportkirî

    Heat and smoke now load the health system each season; Tenduristiya Yekgirtî signals include H5N1 in poultry and a domestic human case in 2024.

  6. BIOCûrbecûrbûna jîndaran1 finding

    13.7% Land in protected and conserved areas, 2023. Raportkirî

    Vast forest and freshwater ecosystems; conservation at about half of the 2030 target.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 2, Systemic 1, Trade 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-CAN-CLI-001

    Compound wildfire, smoke and heat season

    RaportkirîEQL 3

    Faktorê ajokar
    longer fire seasons; heat; drought
    Rûbirûbûn
    communities at the wildland–urban edge; city populations under smoke
    Lawazî
    older adults, outdoor workers, people with chronic illness; single-access towns
    Kapasîte
    interagency fire mutual aid; public alerting; clean-air spaces
    Kaskade
    CLI → BIO → HLT → ENE cooling load
    Horizon
    seasonal · 1 and 5 years

    Erd û ekosîstemAtmosfer û hewaPergalên avê

  • RSK-CAN-WAT-002

    Multi-year drought in western Canada

    InferredEQL 3

    Faktorê ajokar
    low snowpack; heat; low summer flows
    Rûbirûbûn
    Prairie agriculture; western hydro; municipal supply
    Lawazî
    rain-fed farms; reservoir-limited pergalan
    Kapasîte
    drought monitoring; crop insurance; interties and imports
    Kaskade
    WAT → ENE → FOO → TRD
    Horizon
    1–3 years

    Pergalên avêAtmosfer û hewa

  • RSK-CAN-CLI-003

    Pluvial and riverine flooding in cities and corridors

    RaportkirîEQL 4

    Faktorê ajokar
    extreme rainfall; atmospheric rivers; snowmelt
    Rûbirûbûn
    basements and networks in large cities; rail and road links
    Lawazî
    older drainage; high-risk households with thin cover [22]
    Kapasîte
    flood mapping; disaster assistance; insurance
    Kaskade
    CLI → INF → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    annual

    Pergalên avê

  • RSK-CAN-TRD-004

    Trade-terms shock to integrated supply chains

    InferredEQL 3

    Faktorê ajokar
    tariffs; the 2026 CUSMA joint review [35]
    Rûbirûbûn
    autos, steel and aluminium, energy, agri-food
    Lawazî
    concentration of export markets [12]
    Kapasîte
    trade diversification; fiscal measures
    Kaskade
    TRD → FIN → households
    Horizon
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

Scenario · SCN-CAN-HDF-01

Western heat, drought and fire year

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

4 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → WATlow snowpack and heat cut summer flows and reservoir inflow
  2. 2WAT → ENElower hydro output; imports at peak prices
  3. 3CLI → HLTheat deaths and emergency visits; cooling in care settings
  4. 4BIO → HLTsmoke over Prairie and BC cities for weeks
  5. 5WAT → FOOcanola and wheat yields fall by a third or more
  6. 6CLI → INFfire and heat slow rail operations; export delays

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Canada matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core pergalan. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
FromWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongNavînStrong
ENENavîn·StrongStrongNavîn
FOONavînWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakNavîn·Weak
BIOStrongNavînStrongNavîn·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. WAT → ENE → HLTa dry year cuts hydro; heat raises peak demand; care settings need power and coolingInferred
  2. CLI → BIO → HLTa fire season sends smoke over distant cities for weeksRaportkirî
  3. WAT → FOO → TRDdrought cuts yields and export volumesRaportkirî
  4. CLI → INF → FOOflood or fire cuts rail links to portsInferred
  5. ENE → FOOfuel and fertiliser costs pass into food pricesInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of Canada.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Canada
IDÇapSector or systemRewşStatement
CLI-001KanadaCLI Climate forcing RaportkirîNational GHG emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024: 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023.
FIN-002KanadaFIN Fînans RaportkirîInsured catastrophe losses reached a record C$9.1 billion in 2024, then C$2.4 billion in 2025, with 17 catastrophes declared.
FIN-003KanadaFIN Fînans RaportkirîInsurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses over 43 years; the long-run loss trend is rising by about 9% a year after inflation.
ENE-004KanadaENE Enerjî RaportkirîOil and gas remained the largest emitting sector (208 Mt, 30%, up 1.8%), while methane fell to its lowest level on record (105 Mt CO₂e).
ENE-005KanadaENE Enerjî InferredElectricity emitted 50 Mt CO₂e (7.2%). Hydro’s dominance makes multi-year drought a direct risk to supply and to exports.
WAT-006KanadaWAT Av RaportkirîCanada holds about 7% of the world’s renewable freshwater; most of it drains north, away from population and agriculture.
CLI-007KanadaCLI Climate forcing RaportkirîCanada has warmed at about twice the global rate (1.7 °C, 1948–2016), and northern Canada faster still.
HLT-008KanadaHLT Tenduristî RaportkirîThe 2021 heat dome caused 619 heat-related deaths in British Columbia, establishing heat as a first-order health–power coupling.
BIO-009KanadaBIO Cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran RaportkirîProtected and conserved areas covered 13.7% of land and 14.7% of marine territory in 2023, against a 30% target for 2030.
CLI-010KanadaCLI Climate forcing RaportkirîThe 2023 şewata daristanan season burned more than 15 million hectares, the largest on record, and 2025 led the record for fire catastrophes declared.
TRD-011KanadaTRD Bazirganî InferredAbout three-quarters of goods exports go to the United States, so trade policy is the main channel for economic shocks in 2026–2027.
SYS-012KanadaSYS Systemic Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from heat and drought through hydro shortfall, şewata daristanan smoke and rail disruption into health and food logistics in Western Canada.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Canada.

The desks’ editions for Canada
DeskÇapDewletNasker
GCRI Systems EvidenceCanada 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Canada 2026Di amadekirinê de
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Canada 2026Di amadekirinê de
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Canada 2026Di amadekirinê de

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Evidence close30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Rastkirinafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-CAN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Corrections log

Versions and corrections
GuhertoyDateDewletChangeNotice
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,tune
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
ValahîShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/can/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
rêzeya Pergalên StratejîkTevkarî bike

Send evidence or a correction on Canada.

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CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.