Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Canada 2026
Canada
Canada enters 2027 with electricity that is largely non-emitting, an oil and gas sector that still produced 30% of national emissions in 2024, a freshwater endowment that is vast in total but thin where people live, and a hazard regime in which wildfire, hail, flood and ice storms now set the pace of losses. National emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and almost unchanged on 2023.
- Findings
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 4 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Sources
- 48
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Canada in six readings.
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATWater1 finding
≈7% Share of the world’s renewable freshwater, long-run mean. □Reported
Abundant in total, scarce where people and farms are; drought on the Prairies and in southern British Columbia is the binding stress.
- ENEEnergy2 findings
50 Mt CO₂e Electricity-sector emissions, 2024. □Reported
Low-emitting power; emissions concentrated in oil and gas; hydro output exposed to dry years.
- INFInfrastructurenot assessed
Long, thin corridors carry trade; gateways have shown capacity and continuity limits.
- FOOFood0 findings
70 Mt CO₂e Agriculture-sector emissions, 2024. □Reported
A major exporter of grains, oilseeds and potash; yields swing with Prairie drought.
- HLTHealth1 finding
619 deaths Heat-related deaths, 2021 heat dome (BC), 2021. □Reported
Heat and smoke now load the health system each season; One Health signals include H5N1 in poultry and a domestic human case in 2024.
- BIOBiodiversity1 finding
13.7% Land in protected and conserved areas, 2023. □Reported
Vast forest and freshwater ecosystems; conservation at about half of the 2030 target.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 2, Systemic 1, Trade 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-CAN-CLI-001
Compound wildfire, smoke and heat season
□ReportedEQL 3
- Driver
- longer fire seasons; heat; drought
- Exposure
- communities at the wildland–urban edge; city populations under smoke
- Vulnerability
- older adults, outdoor workers, people with chronic illness; single-access towns
- Capacity
- interagency fire mutual aid; public alerting; clean-air spaces
- Cascade
- CLI → BIO → HLT → ENE cooling load
- Horizon
- seasonal · 1 and 5 years
RSK-CAN-WAT-002
Multi-year drought in western Canada
▲InferredEQL 3
- Driver
- low snowpack; heat; low summer flows
- Exposure
- Prairie agriculture; western hydro; municipal supply
- Vulnerability
- rain-fed farms; reservoir-limited systems
- Capacity
- drought monitoring; crop insurance; interties and imports
- Cascade
- WAT → ENE → FOO → TRD
- Horizon
- 1–3 years
RSK-CAN-CLI-003
Pluvial and riverine flooding in cities and corridors
□ReportedEQL 4
- Driver
- extreme rainfall; atmospheric rivers; snowmelt
- Exposure
- basements and networks in large cities; rail and road links
- Vulnerability
- older drainage; high-risk households with thin cover [22]
- Capacity
- flood mapping; disaster assistance; insurance
- Cascade
- CLI → INF → FOO, FIN
- Horizon
- annual
RSK-CAN-TRD-004
Trade-terms shock to integrated supply chains
▲InferredEQL 3
- Driver
- tariffs; the 2026 CUSMA joint review [35]
- Exposure
- autos, steel and aluminium, energy, agri-food
- Vulnerability
- concentration of export markets [12]
- Capacity
- trade diversification; fiscal measures
- Cascade
- TRD → FIN → households
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-CAN-HDF-01
Western heat, drought and fire year
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
4 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATlow snowpack and heat cut summer flows and reservoir inflow
- 2WAT → ENElower hydro output; imports at peak prices
- 3CLI → HLTheat deaths and emergency visits; cooling in care settings
- 4BIO → HLTsmoke over Prairie and BC cities for weeks
- 5WAT → FOOcanola and wheat yields fall by a third or more
- 6CLI → INFfire and heat slow rail operations; export delays
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Canada matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| From | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Moderate | Strong |
| ENE | Moderate | · | Strong | Strong | Moderate |
| FOO | Moderate | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Moderate | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Moderate | Strong | Moderate | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- WAT → ENE → HLTa dry year cuts hydro; heat raises peak demand; care settings need power and cooling▲Inferred
- CLI → BIO → HLTa fire season sends smoke over distant cities for weeks□Reported
- WAT → FOO → TRDdrought cuts yields and export volumes□Reported
- CLI → INF → FOOflood or fire cuts rail links to ports▲Inferred
- ENE → FOOfuel and fertiliser costs pass into food prices▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Canada.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Edition | Sector or system | Status | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Canada | CLI Climate forcing | □ Reported | National GHG emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024: 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. |
| FIN-002 | Canada | FIN Finance | □ Reported | Insured catastrophe losses reached a record C$9.1 billion in 2024, then C$2.4 billion in 2025, with 17 catastrophes declared. |
| FIN-003 | Canada | FIN Finance | □ Reported | Insurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses over 43 years; the long-run loss trend is rising by about 9% a year after inflation. |
| ENE-004 | Canada | ENE Energy | □ Reported | Oil and gas remained the largest emitting sector (208 Mt, 30%, up 1.8%), while methane fell to its lowest level on record (105 Mt CO₂e). |
| ENE-005 | Canada | ENE Energy | ▲ Inferred | Electricity emitted 50 Mt CO₂e (7.2%). Hydro’s dominance makes multi-year drought a direct risk to supply and to exports. |
| WAT-006 | Canada | WAT Water | □ Reported | Canada holds about 7% of the world’s renewable freshwater; most of it drains north, away from population and agriculture. |
| CLI-007 | Canada | CLI Climate forcing | □ Reported | Canada has warmed at about twice the global rate (1.7 °C, 1948–2016), and northern Canada faster still. |
| HLT-008 | Canada | HLT Health | □ Reported | The 2021 heat dome caused 619 heat-related deaths in British Columbia, establishing heat as a first-order health–power coupling. |
| BIO-009 | Canada | BIO Biodiversity | □ Reported | Protected and conserved areas covered 13.7% of land and 14.7% of marine territory in 2023, against a 30% target for 2030. |
| CLI-010 | Canada | CLI Climate forcing | □ Reported | The 2023 wildfire season burned more than 15 million hectares, the largest on record, and 2025 led the record for fire catastrophes declared. |
| TRD-011 | Canada | TRD Trade | ▲ Inferred | About three-quarters of goods exports go to the United States, so trade policy is the main channel for economic shocks in 2026–2027. |
| SYS-012 | Canada | SYS Systemic | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from heat and drought through hydro shortfall, wildfire smoke and rail disruption into health and food logistics in Western Canada. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Canada.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Canada 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Canada 2026 | In preparation | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Canada 2026 | In preparation | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Canada 2026 | In preparation |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Evidence close30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Correctionsafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-CAN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- ReadThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ContributeSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- ReviewJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | none |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Gap | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/can/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Canada.
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