Skip to content

Reports · GCRI · Country profile

Canada 2026

Канада

Canada enters 2027 with electricity that is largely non-emitting, an oil and gas sector that still produced 30% of national emissions in 2024, a freshwater endowment that is vast in total but thin where people live, and a hazard regime in which лесные пожары, hail, flood and ice storms now set the pace of losses. National emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and almost unchanged on 2023.

Read the editionПодверженность опасностям
Выводы
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
4 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Источники
48
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Canada in six readings.

Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 41.5millionpopulation, 2025 [11]
  • 8.79million km²land area [32]
  • ≈9%of the world’s forests [31]
  • ≈83%electricity from non-emitting sources [9]
  • ≈⅓of world potash output [30]
  • 12.4% GDPhealth spending, 2024 [21]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATВода1 finding

    ≈7% Share of the world’s renewable freshwater, long-run mean. Сообщённые данные

    Abundant in total, scarce where people and farms are; drought on the Prairies and in southern British Columbia is the binding stress.

  2. ENEЭнергетика2 findings

    50 Mt CO₂e Electricity-sector emissions, 2024. Сообщённые данные

    Low-emitting power; emissions concentrated in oil and gas; hydro output exposed to dry years.

  3. INFИнфраструктураnot assessed

    Long, thin corridors carry trade; gateways have shown capacity and continuity limits.

  4. FOOПродовольствие0 findings

    70 Mt CO₂e Agriculture-sector emissions, 2024. Сообщённые данные

    A major exporter of grains, oilseeds and potash; yields swing with Prairie drought.

  5. HLTЗдравоохранение1 finding

    619 deaths Heat-related deaths, 2021 heat dome (BC), 2021. Сообщённые данные

    Heat and smoke now load the health system each season; «Единого здравоохранения» signals include H5N1 in poultry and a domestic human case in 2024.

  6. BIOБиоразнообразие1 finding

    13.7% Land in protected and conserved areas, 2023. Сообщённые данные

    Vast forest and freshwater ecosystems; conservation at about half of the 2030 target.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 2, Systemic 1, Trade 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-CAN-CLI-001

    Compound wildfire, smoke and heat season

    Сообщённые данныеEQL 3

    Движущая сила
    longer fire seasons; heat; drought
    Подверженность
    communities at the wildland–urban edge; city populations under smoke
    Уязвимость
    older adults, outdoor workers, people with chronic illness; single-access towns
    Мощность
    interagency fire mutual aid; public alerting; clean-air spaces
    Каскад
    CLI → BIO → HLT → ENE cooling load
    Горизонт
    seasonal · 1 and 5 years

    Суша и экосистемыАтмосфера и погодаВодные системы

  • RSK-CAN-WAT-002

    Multi-year drought in western Canada

    InferredEQL 3

    Движущая сила
    low snowpack; heat; low summer flows
    Подверженность
    Prairie agriculture; western hydro; municipal supply
    Уязвимость
    rain-fed farms; reservoir-limited системы
    Мощность
    drought monitoring; crop insurance; interties and imports
    Каскад
    WAT → ENE → FOO → TRD
    Горизонт
    1–3 years

    Водные системыАтмосфера и погода

  • RSK-CAN-CLI-003

    Pluvial and riverine flooding in cities and corridors

    Сообщённые данныеEQL 4

    Движущая сила
    extreme rainfall; atmospheric rivers; snowmelt
    Подверженность
    basements and networks in large cities; rail and road links
    Уязвимость
    older drainage; high-risk households with thin cover [22]
    Мощность
    flood mapping; disaster assistance; insurance
    Каскад
    CLI → INF → FOO, FIN
    Горизонт
    ежегодно

    Водные системы

  • RSK-CAN-TRD-004

    Trade-terms shock to integrated supply chains

    InferredEQL 3

    Движущая сила
    tariffs; the 2026 CUSMA joint review [35]
    Подверженность
    autos, steel and aluminium, energy, agri-food
    Уязвимость
    concentration of export markets [12]
    Мощность
    trade diversification; fiscal measures
    Каскад
    TRD → FIN → households
    Горизонт
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

Scenario · SCN-CAN-HDF-01

Western heat, drought and fire year

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

4 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → WATlow snowpack and heat cut summer flows and reservoir inflow
  2. 2WAT → ENElower hydro output; imports at peak prices
  3. 3CLI → HLTheat deaths and emergency visits; cooling in care settings
  4. 4BIO → HLTsmoke over Prairie and BC cities for weeks
  5. 5WAT → FOOcanola and wheat yields fall by a third or more
  6. 6CLI → INFfire and heat slow rail operations; export delays

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Canada matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core системы. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
ОтWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongУмеренныеStrong
ENEУмеренные·StrongStrongУмеренные
FOOУмеренныеWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakУмеренные·Weak
BIOStrongУмеренныеStrongУмеренные·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. WAT → ENE → HLTa dry year cuts hydro; heat raises peak demand; care settings need power and coolingInferred
  2. CLI → BIO → HLTa fire season sends smoke over distant cities for weeksСообщённые данные
  3. WAT → FOO → TRDdrought cuts yields and export volumesСообщённые данные
  4. CLI → INF → FOOflood or fire cuts rail links to portsInferred
  5. ENE → FOOfuel and fertiliser costs pass into food pricesInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of Canada.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Canada
IDВыпускSector or systemСтатусStatement
CLI-001КанадаCLI Climate forcing Сообщённые данныеNational GHG emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024: 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023.
FIN-002КанадаFIN Финансы Сообщённые данныеInsured catastrophe losses reached a record C$9.1 billion in 2024, then C$2.4 billion in 2025, with 17 catastrophes declared.
FIN-003КанадаFIN Финансы Сообщённые данныеInsurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses over 43 years; the long-run loss trend is rising by about 9% a year after inflation.
ENE-004КанадаENE Энергетика Сообщённые данныеOil and gas remained the largest emitting sector (208 Mt, 30%, up 1.8%), while methane fell to its lowest level on record (105 Mt CO₂e).
ENE-005КанадаENE Энергетика InferredElectricity emitted 50 Mt CO₂e (7.2%). Hydro’s dominance makes multi-year drought a direct risk to supply and to exports.
WAT-006КанадаWAT Вода Сообщённые данныеCanada holds about 7% of the world’s renewable freshwater; most of it drains north, away from population and agriculture.
CLI-007КанадаCLI Climate forcing Сообщённые данныеCanada has warmed at about twice the global rate (1.7 °C, 1948–2016), and northern Canada faster still.
HLT-008КанадаHLT Здравоохранение Сообщённые данныеThe 2021 heat dome caused 619 heat-related deaths in British Columbia, establishing heat as a first-order health–power coupling.
BIO-009КанадаBIO Биоразнообразие Сообщённые данныеProtected and conserved areas covered 13.7% of land and 14.7% of marine territory in 2023, against a 30% target for 2030.
CLI-010КанадаCLI Climate forcing Сообщённые данныеThe 2023 лесные пожары season burned more than 15 million hectares, the largest on record, and 2025 led the record for fire catastrophes declared.
TRD-011КанадаTRD Торговля InferredAbout three-quarters of goods exports go to the United States, so trade policy is the main channel for economic shocks in 2026–2027.
SYS-012КанадаSYS Системные риски Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from heat and drought through hydro shortfall, лесные пожары smoke and rail disruption into health and food logistics in Western Canada.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Canada.

The desks’ editions for Canada
БюроВыпускСтатусИдентификатор
GCRI Systems EvidenceCanada 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Canada 2026В подготовке
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Canada 2026В подготовке
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Canada 2026В подготовке

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Закрытие доказательной базы30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Исправленияafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-CAN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Журнал исправлений

Versions and corrections
ВерсияДатаСтатусИзменениеУведомление
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,нет
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
РазрывShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/can/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
ОтчётыВнести вклад

Send evidence or a correction on Canada.

Отчёты is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Системная и доказательной базы Глобального центра по рискам и инновациям (Global Centre for Risk and Innovation, GCRI): доказательная база, пример или исправление в следующем выпуске могут быть основаны на том, что вы знаете по этой теме. Авторство указывается за вами, а собственная работа публикуется по лицензии CC BY 4.0. Если материал отправлен не в то бюро, его перенаправляют, а не отклоняют.

Служба GCRI «Системы и доказательная база»

Никогда не отправляйте персональные данные, сведения о чувствительной инфраструктуре или то, чем вы не вправе делиться. Материал проходит рассмотрение перед использованием; его отправка не дает авторских или редакционных прав, а спонсорство никогда не покупает выводы.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.