Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Russian Federation 2026
ロシア
The Russian Federation enters 2027 as a large continental economy whose energy, forest and permafrost システム are central to its climate position, and whose official data releases have narrowed. Its second nationally determined contribution sets net emissions in 2035 at 65 to 67% of the 1990 level, with removals by forests counted, against a 1990 net base of 2,427.2 Mt CO₂e.
- 調査結果
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 6 of 6
- on the sector hexagon
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- 出典
- 50
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Russian Federation in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Russian Federation baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score.
- WAT水1 finding
76.3% People using safely managed drinking water, 2024. □報告値
Abundant freshwater per person; spring floods; dam safety shown at Orsk in 2024.
- ENEエネルギー1 finding
1,166 TWh Electricity generation in the unified system, 2025. □報告値
Gas-heavy primary energy; thermal power above 57%; large fossil exports.
- INFインフラ1 finding
Permafrost thaw reaches northern infrastructure; condition not bound.
- FOO食料1 finding
141.2 Mt Grain harvest, Rosstat series excluding new regions, 2025. □報告値
Grain harvest 141.2 Mt in 2025; undernourishment at the reporting floor.
- HLT健康2 findings
73.4 years Life expectancy at birth, 2024. □報告値
Ageing population; national health series narrowed from 2025.
- BIO生物多様性1 finding
8.6 % of territory Terrestrial and marine protected areas, 2025. □報告値
Forest on 50.8% of land; protected share 8.6%; fire and thaw pressure.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, SEI 1, Systemic 1, Trade 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-RUS-CLI-001
Heat, drought and wildfire in grain and forest regions
□報告値EQL 3
- 要因
- record-warm years and seasonal extremes
- 曝露
- grain land, forest, cities downwind of smoke
- 脆弱性
- sink loss and crop loss in the same season
- 能力
- forest fire monitoring; not reviewed in depth
- カスケード
- CLI → FOO, BIO, HLT, ENE
- ホライズン
- 年次
RSK-RUS-WAT-002
Spring flood and dam failure on regulated rivers
□報告値EQL 3
- 要因
- snowmelt and rain on frozen ground
- 曝露
- river towns below dams
- 脆弱性
- design levels below event levels, as at Orsk
- 能力
- federal emergency regime; evacuation
- カスケード
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
- ホライズン
- 年次
RSK-RUS-INF-003
Permafrost thaw under northern infrastructure
▲InferredEQL 2
- 要因
- ground warming and Arctic amplification
- 曝露
- northern industry, pipelines, housing
- 脆弱性
- foundation design; monitoring coverage
- 能力
- operator monitoring システム reported in the NDC
- カスケード
- CLI → INF → ENE, BIO
- ホライズン
- 5 to 30 years
No domain reading
RSK-RUS-ENE-004
Cold extremes and export dependence of the energy system
▲InferredEQL 2
- 要因
- temperature extremes; external demand and logistics
- 曝露
- power, heat supply, fossil exports
- 脆弱性
- gas-heavy supply; northern heat supply
- 能力
- large installed base of 271 GW [8]
- カスケード
- TRD → ENE → FIN
- ホライズン
- 1 to 5 years
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-RUS-HTD-01
Heat, drought and smoke in a grain and forest region
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → FOOheat and drought cut yields in the grain belt
- 2CLI → BIOforest fire area grows; removals fall
- 3BIO → HLTsmoke reaches cities and raises respiratory demand
- 4CLI → ENEcooling demand raises peak load
- 5FOO → TRDharvest and export outlook change
- 6TRD → FINrevenue and prices respond
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Russian Federation matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core システム. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| 起点 | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | 中程度 | Strong |
| ENE | 中程度 | · | Strong | Strong | 中程度 |
| FOO | 中程度 | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | 中程度 | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | 中程度 | Strong | 中程度 | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → FOOheat and drought lower yields and raise export and price pressure▲Inferred
- CLI → INFpermafrost thaw weakens foundations, tanks and pipelines in the north□報告値
- CLI → WAT → INFspring flood overtops a dam and cuts housing and roads□報告値
- SEI → INFa great subduction 地震 と 津波 strike a remote coast□報告値
- TRD → ENE → FINexternal demand and logistics shifts pass into energy and public revenue▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Russian Federation.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | 版 | Sector or system | ステータス | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | ロシア | CLI Climate forcing | □ 報告値 | The second NDC sets 2035 net emissions at 65 to 67% of the 1990 level, with removals by forests counted; the 1990 net base is 2,427.2 Mt CO₂e. |
| ENE-002 | ロシア | ENE エネルギー | □ 報告値 | Thermal plants produced 57.5% of electricity in the unified system in 2025, nuclear 18.7% and hydropower 16.7%; natural gas supplied 53% of primary energy in 2023. |
| CLI-003 | ロシア | CLI Climate forcing | □ 報告値 | 2025 was the second-warmest year on record in Russia, +1.24 °C against the reference period, after 2020 at +2.03 °C. |
| BIO-004 | ロシア | BIO 生物多様性 | □ 報告値 | The NDC reports forest fund land of more than 1.1 billion ha and average removals of 1.2 Gt CO₂e a year since 1990; a peer-reviewed study finds managed-forest biomass uptake 47% above the earlier national inventory. |
| SEI-005 | ロシア | SEI SEI | □ 報告値 | A magnitude 8.8 地震 struck off the Kamchatka Peninsula on 29 July 2025 and generated a 津波; losses are not bound in this edition. |
| FOO-006 | ロシア | FOO 食料 | □ 報告値 | The 2025 grain harvest was 141.2 Mt, including 91.1 Mt of wheat, on the Rosstat series that excludes the new regions; the preliminary figure in December 2025 was 139.4 Mt. |
| HLT-007 | ロシア | HLT 健康 | □ 報告値 | 17.8% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2025 and life expectancy was 73.4 years in 2024; monthly births and deaths were withdrawn from Rosstat releases in 2025. |
| HLT-008 | ロシア | HLT 健康 | · Not bound | Heat-attributable deaths are not bound: no national cause-of-death series was available at evidence close. |
| WAT-009 | ロシア | WAT 水 | □ 報告値 | The Orsk dam on the Ural River failed on 5 April 2024 when the river reached 9.6 m against a design level of 5.5 m; more than 7,700 people were evacuated across the Orenburg Region. |
| INF-010 | ロシア | INF インフラ | □ 報告値 | The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, and permafrost temperatures have risen globally; a fuel tank failure at Norilsk in 2020 released about 17,500 t of diesel. |
| TRD-011 | ロシア | TRD 貿易 | ▲ Inferred | Exports of crude oil, gas, coal and grain tie national income and supply to external demand and logistics; GDP growth was 4.9% in 2024 and 1.0% in 2025. |
| SYS-012 | ロシア | SYS システミック | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer of heat and drought in a grain and forest region, with 林野火災 smoke over cities and strain on power and health services. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Russian Federation.
| デスク | 版 | 状況 | 識別子 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Russian Federation 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Russian Federation 2026 | 準備中 | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Russian Federation 2026 | 準備中 | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Russian Federation 2026 | 準備中 |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03エビデンス締め切り30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07訂正after release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-RUS-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- 読むThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- 貢献するSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- 審査Join the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
訂正履歴
| バージョン | 日付 | 状況 | 変化 | 通知 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | なし |
Data gaps2What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| ギャップ | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/rus/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
Send evidence or a correction on Russian Federation.
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