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Russian Federation 2026

Russian Federation

The Russian Federation enters 2027 as a large continental economy whose energy, forest and permafrost systems are central to its climate position, and whose official data releases have narrowed. Its second nationally determined contribution sets net emissions in 2035 at 65 to 67% of the 1990 level, with removals by forests counted, against a 1990 net base of 2,427.2 Mt CO₂e.

Read the editionHazard exposure
Findings
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
6 of 6
on the sector hexagon
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Sources
50
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Russian Federation in six readings.

Six readings that frame the Russian Federation baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 146.0millionpopulation, 1 January 2025, Rosstat preliminary [23]
  • 17.8%aged 65 or over, 2025 [13]
  • 2,427Mt CO₂e1990 net base year in the NDC [1]
  • 1,166TWhelectricity generation, 2025 [8]
  • 50.8%forest share of land, 2024 [15]
  • ≤2.5%prevalence of undernourishment, 2024 [19]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score.

  1. WATWater1 finding

    76.3% People using safely managed drinking water, 2024. Reported

    Abundant freshwater per person; spring floods; dam safety shown at Orsk in 2024.

  2. ENEEnergy1 finding

    1,166 TWh Electricity generation in the unified system, 2025. Reported

    Gas-heavy primary energy; thermal power above 57%; large fossil exports.

  3. INFInfrastructure1 finding

    Permafrost thaw reaches northern infrastructure; condition not bound.

  4. FOOFood1 finding

    141.2 Mt Grain harvest, Rosstat series excluding new regions, 2025. Reported

    Grain harvest 141.2 Mt in 2025; undernourishment at the reporting floor.

  5. HLTHealth2 findings

    73.4 years Life expectancy at birth, 2024. Reported

    Ageing population; national health series narrowed from 2025.

  6. BIOBiodiversity1 finding

    8.6 % of territory Terrestrial and marine protected areas, 2025. Reported

    Forest on 50.8% of land; protected share 8.6%; fire and thaw pressure.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, SEI 1, Systemic 1, Trade 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-RUS-CLI-001

    Heat, drought and wildfire in grain and forest regions

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    record-warm years and seasonal extremes
    Exposure
    grain land, forest, cities downwind of smoke
    Vulnerability
    sink loss and crop loss in the same season
    Capacity
    forest fire monitoring; not reviewed in depth
    Cascade
    CLI → FOO, BIO, HLT, ENE
    Horizon
    annual

    Atmosphere and weatherWater systemsLand and ecosystems

  • RSK-RUS-WAT-002

    Spring flood and dam failure on regulated rivers

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    snowmelt and rain on frozen ground
    Exposure
    river towns below dams
    Vulnerability
    design levels below event levels, as at Orsk
    Capacity
    federal emergency regime; evacuation
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

    Water systems

  • RSK-RUS-INF-003

    Permafrost thaw under northern infrastructure

    InferredEQL 2

    Driver
    ground warming and Arctic amplification
    Exposure
    northern industry, pipelines, housing
    Vulnerability
    foundation design; monitoring coverage
    Capacity
    operator monitoring systems reported in the NDC
    Cascade
    CLI → INF → ENE, BIO
    Horizon
    5 to 30 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-RUS-ENE-004

    Cold extremes and export dependence of the energy system

    InferredEQL 2

    Driver
    temperature extremes; external demand and logistics
    Exposure
    power, heat supply, fossil exports
    Vulnerability
    gas-heavy supply; northern heat supply
    Capacity
    large installed base of 271 GW [8]
    Cascade
    TRD → ENE → FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

    No domain reading

Scenario · SCN-RUS-HTD-01

Heat, drought and smoke in a grain and forest region

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → FOOheat and drought cut yields in the grain belt
  2. 2CLI → BIOforest fire area grows; removals fall
  3. 3BIO → HLTsmoke reaches cities and raises respiratory demand
  4. 4CLI → ENEcooling demand raises peak load
  5. 5FOO → TRDharvest and export outlook change
  6. 6TRD → FINrevenue and prices respond

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Russian Federation matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
FromWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongModerateStrong
ENEModerate·StrongStrongModerate
FOOModerateWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakModerate·Weak
BIOStrongModerateStrongModerate·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → FOOheat and drought lower yields and raise export and price pressureInferred
  2. CLI → INFpermafrost thaw weakens foundations, tanks and pipelines in the northReported
  3. CLI → WAT → INFspring flood overtops a dam and cuts housing and roadsReported
  4. SEI → INFa great subduction earthquake and tsunami strike a remote coastReported
  5. TRD → ENE → FINexternal demand and logistics shifts pass into energy and public revenueInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of Russian Federation.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Russian Federation
IDEditionSector or systemStatusStatement
CLI-001Russian FederationCLI Climate forcing ReportedThe second NDC sets 2035 net emissions at 65 to 67% of the 1990 level, with removals by forests counted; the 1990 net base is 2,427.2 Mt CO₂e.
ENE-002Russian FederationENE Energy ReportedThermal plants produced 57.5% of electricity in the unified system in 2025, nuclear 18.7% and hydropower 16.7%; natural gas supplied 53% of primary energy in 2023.
CLI-003Russian FederationCLI Climate forcing Reported2025 was the second-warmest year on record in Russia, +1.24 °C against the reference period, after 2020 at +2.03 °C.
BIO-004Russian FederationBIO Biodiversity ReportedThe NDC reports forest fund land of more than 1.1 billion ha and average removals of 1.2 Gt CO₂e a year since 1990; a peer-reviewed study finds managed-forest biomass uptake 47% above the earlier national inventory.
SEI-005Russian FederationSEI SEI ReportedA magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off the Kamchatka Peninsula on 29 July 2025 and generated a tsunami; losses are not bound in this edition.
FOO-006Russian FederationFOO Food ReportedThe 2025 grain harvest was 141.2 Mt, including 91.1 Mt of wheat, on the Rosstat series that excludes the new regions; the preliminary figure in December 2025 was 139.4 Mt.
HLT-007Russian FederationHLT Health Reported17.8% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2025 and life expectancy was 73.4 years in 2024; monthly births and deaths were withdrawn from Rosstat releases in 2025.
HLT-008Russian FederationHLT Health Not boundHeat-attributable deaths are not bound: no national cause-of-death series was available at evidence close.
WAT-009Russian FederationWAT Water ReportedThe Orsk dam on the Ural River failed on 5 April 2024 when the river reached 9.6 m against a design level of 5.5 m; more than 7,700 people were evacuated across the Orenburg Region.
INF-010Russian FederationINF Infrastructure ReportedThe Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, and permafrost temperatures have risen globally; a fuel tank failure at Norilsk in 2020 released about 17,500 t of diesel.
TRD-011Russian FederationTRD Trade InferredExports of crude oil, gas, coal and grain tie national income and supply to external demand and logistics; GDP growth was 4.9% in 2024 and 1.0% in 2025.
SYS-012Russian FederationSYS Systemic Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer of heat and drought in a grain and forest region, with wildfire smoke over cities and strain on power and health services.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Russian Federation.

The desks’ editions for Russian Federation
DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceRussian Federation 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Russian Federation 2026In preparation
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Russian Federation 2026In preparation
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Russian Federation 2026In preparation

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Evidence close30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Correctionsafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-RUS-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Corrections log

Versions and corrections
VersionDateStateChangeNotice
NR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,none
Data gaps2What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
GapShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/rus/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
ReportsContribute

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