Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Russian Federation 2026
Российская Федерация
The Russian Federation enters 2027 as a large continental economy whose energy, forest and permafrost системы are central to its climate position, and whose official data releases have narrowed. Its second nationally determined contribution sets net emissions in 2035 at 65 to 67% of the 1990 level, with removals by forests counted, against a 1990 net base of 2,427.2 Mt CO₂e.
- Выводы
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 6 of 6
- on the sector hexagon
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Источники
- 50
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Russian Federation in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Russian Federation baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score.
- WATВода1 finding
76.3% People using safely managed drinking water, 2024. □Сообщённые данные
Abundant freshwater per person; spring floods; dam safety shown at Orsk in 2024.
- ENEЭнергетика1 finding
1,166 TWh Electricity generation in the unified system, 2025. □Сообщённые данные
Gas-heavy primary energy; thermal power above 57%; large fossil exports.
- INFИнфраструктура1 finding
Permafrost thaw reaches northern infrastructure; condition not bound.
- FOOПродовольствие1 finding
141.2 Mt Grain harvest, Rosstat series excluding new regions, 2025. □Сообщённые данные
Grain harvest 141.2 Mt in 2025; undernourishment at the reporting floor.
- HLTЗдравоохранение2 findings
73.4 years Life expectancy at birth, 2024. □Сообщённые данные
Ageing population; national health series narrowed from 2025.
- BIOБиоразнообразие1 finding
8.6 % of territory Terrestrial and marine protected areas, 2025. □Сообщённые данные
Forest on 50.8% of land; protected share 8.6%; fire and thaw pressure.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, SEI 1, Systemic 1, Trade 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-RUS-CLI-001
Heat, drought and wildfire in grain and forest regions
□Сообщённые данныеEQL 3
- Движущая сила
- record-warm years and seasonal extremes
- Подверженность
- grain land, forest, cities downwind of smoke
- Уязвимость
- sink loss and crop loss in the same season
- Мощность
- forest fire monitoring; not reviewed in depth
- Каскад
- CLI → FOO, BIO, HLT, ENE
- Горизонт
- ежегодно
RSK-RUS-WAT-002
Spring flood and dam failure on regulated rivers
□Сообщённые данныеEQL 3
- Движущая сила
- snowmelt and rain on frozen ground
- Подверженность
- river towns below dams
- Уязвимость
- design levels below event levels, as at Orsk
- Мощность
- federal emergency regime; evacuation
- Каскад
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
- Горизонт
- ежегодно
RSK-RUS-INF-003
Permafrost thaw under northern infrastructure
▲InferredEQL 2
- Движущая сила
- ground warming and Arctic amplification
- Подверженность
- northern industry, pipelines, housing
- Уязвимость
- foundation design; monitoring coverage
- Мощность
- operator monitoring системы reported in the NDC
- Каскад
- CLI → INF → ENE, BIO
- Горизонт
- 5 to 30 years
No domain reading
RSK-RUS-ENE-004
Cold extremes and export dependence of the energy system
▲InferredEQL 2
- Движущая сила
- temperature extremes; external demand and logistics
- Подверженность
- power, heat supply, fossil exports
- Уязвимость
- gas-heavy supply; northern heat supply
- Мощность
- large installed base of 271 GW [8]
- Каскад
- TRD → ENE → FIN
- Горизонт
- 1 to 5 years
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-RUS-HTD-01
Heat, drought and smoke in a grain and forest region
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → FOOheat and drought cut yields in the grain belt
- 2CLI → BIOforest fire area grows; removals fall
- 3BIO → HLTsmoke reaches cities and raises respiratory demand
- 4CLI → ENEcooling demand raises peak load
- 5FOO → TRDharvest and export outlook change
- 6TRD → FINrevenue and prices respond
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Russian Federation matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core системы. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| От | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Умеренные | Strong |
| ENE | Умеренные | · | Strong | Strong | Умеренные |
| FOO | Умеренные | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Умеренные | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Умеренные | Strong | Умеренные | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → FOOheat and drought lower yields and raise export and price pressure▲Inferred
- CLI → INFpermafrost thaw weakens foundations, tanks and pipelines in the north□Сообщённые данные
- CLI → WAT → INFspring flood overtops a dam and cuts housing and roads□Сообщённые данные
- SEI → INFa great subduction Землетрясение и цунами strike a remote coast□Сообщённые данные
- TRD → ENE → FINexternal demand and logistics shifts pass into energy and public revenue▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Russian Federation.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Выпуск | Sector or system | Статус | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Российская Федерация | CLI Climate forcing | □ Сообщённые данные | The second NDC sets 2035 net emissions at 65 to 67% of the 1990 level, with removals by forests counted; the 1990 net base is 2,427.2 Mt CO₂e. |
| ENE-002 | Российская Федерация | ENE Энергетика | □ Сообщённые данные | Thermal plants produced 57.5% of electricity in the unified system in 2025, nuclear 18.7% and hydropower 16.7%; natural gas supplied 53% of primary energy in 2023. |
| CLI-003 | Российская Федерация | CLI Climate forcing | □ Сообщённые данные | 2025 was the second-warmest year on record in Russia, +1.24 °C against the reference period, after 2020 at +2.03 °C. |
| BIO-004 | Российская Федерация | BIO Биоразнообразие | □ Сообщённые данные | The NDC reports forest fund land of more than 1.1 billion ha and average removals of 1.2 Gt CO₂e a year since 1990; a peer-reviewed study finds managed-forest biomass uptake 47% above the earlier national inventory. |
| SEI-005 | Российская Федерация | SEI SEI | □ Сообщённые данные | A magnitude 8.8 Землетрясение struck off the Kamchatka Peninsula on 29 July 2025 and generated a цунами; losses are not bound in this edition. |
| FOO-006 | Российская Федерация | FOO Продовольствие | □ Сообщённые данные | The 2025 grain harvest was 141.2 Mt, including 91.1 Mt of wheat, on the Rosstat series that excludes the new regions; the preliminary figure in December 2025 was 139.4 Mt. |
| HLT-007 | Российская Федерация | HLT Здравоохранение | □ Сообщённые данные | 17.8% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2025 and life expectancy was 73.4 years in 2024; monthly births and deaths were withdrawn from Rosstat releases in 2025. |
| HLT-008 | Российская Федерация | HLT Здравоохранение | · Not bound | Heat-attributable deaths are not bound: no national cause-of-death series was available at evidence close. |
| WAT-009 | Российская Федерация | WAT Вода | □ Сообщённые данные | The Orsk dam on the Ural River failed on 5 April 2024 when the river reached 9.6 m against a design level of 5.5 m; more than 7,700 people were evacuated across the Orenburg Region. |
| INF-010 | Российская Федерация | INF Инфраструктура | □ Сообщённые данные | The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, and permafrost temperatures have risen globally; a fuel tank failure at Norilsk in 2020 released about 17,500 t of diesel. |
| TRD-011 | Российская Федерация | TRD Торговля | ▲ Inferred | Exports of crude oil, gas, coal and grain tie national income and supply to external demand and logistics; GDP growth was 4.9% in 2024 and 1.0% in 2025. |
| SYS-012 | Российская Федерация | SYS Системные риски | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer of heat and drought in a grain and forest region, with лесные пожары smoke over cities and strain on power and health services. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Russian Federation.
| Бюро | Выпуск | Статус | Идентификатор |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Russian Federation 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Russian Federation 2026 | В подготовке | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Russian Federation 2026 | В подготовке | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Russian Federation 2026 | В подготовке |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Закрытие доказательной базы30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Исправленияafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-RUS-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- ИзучениеThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- Внести вкладSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- РецензированиеJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Журнал исправлений
| Версия | Дата | Статус | Изменение | Уведомление |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | нет |
Data gaps2What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Разрыв | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/rus/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
Send evidence or a correction on Russian Federation.
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