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African Union 2026

아프리카연합

The African Union enters 2027 with a growing and young population, an economy that grew 4.1% in 2025 on the World Bank Sub-Saharan Africa measure, and large gaps in the services that tie water, energy, food and health together. In 2024, 55.1% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa had electricity, 22.9% had clean cooking, 32.4% had safely managed drinking water and 25.9% had safely managed sanitation.

Read the edition재해 노출
조사 결과
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
출처
51
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

African Union in six readings.

Six readings that frame the African Union baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 1.32billionpeople, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2025 [4]
  • 40.4%aged under 15, 2025 [6]
  • 3.2%aged 65 or over, 2025 [7]
  • 44.7%urban population, 2025 [8]
  • 2.21USD trillionGDP, current prices, 2025 [11]
  • 55member statesin the Union at evidence close [1]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WAT물1 finding

    32.4% People using safely managed drinking water, 2024. 보고값

    32.4% safely managed drinking water; 25.9% safely managed sanitation (2024).

  2. ENE에너지3 findings

    55.1% People with access to electricity, 2024. 보고값

    55.1% with electricity; 22.9% with clean cooking (2024).

  3. INF인프라not assessed

    Infrastructure programme is set out in PIDA; asset condition is not assessed here.

  4. FOO식량2 findings

    22.3% Prevalence of undernourishment, 2024. 보고값

    22.3% undernourished; 49.8% of employment in agriculture.

  5. HLT보건1 finding

    71.2 per 1,000 Under-5 mortality, per 1,000 live births, 2024. 보고값

    Under-5 mortality 71.2 per 1,000; life expectancy 62.8 years (2024).

  6. BIO생물다양성1 finding

    17.3% Land in terrestrial protected areas, 2025. 보고값

    Protected land 17.3% and sea 7.1% (2025); forest 25.7% of land (2023).

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 1, Development 1, Finance 1, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-AU-CLI-001

    Drought across several member states in one season

    InferredEQL 3

    동인
    failed rains and heat in several regions at once
    노출
    farming households and rain-fed 시스템; 49.8% of employment [15]
    취약성
    undernourishment 22.3% [16]
    역량
    AU climate strategy [30]; 조기경보 not assessed here
    캐스케이드
    CLI → FOO, WAT, HLT
    예측 시계
    seasonal

    물 시스템대기와 날씨

  • RSK-AU-ENE-002

    Household and clinic power and cooking gaps persist

    보고값EQL 3

    동인
    slow pace of access gains
    노출
    households without electricity or clean cooking
    취약성
    55.1% with electricity; 22.9% with clean cooking [17] [18]
    역량
    Mission 300 declaration [36]
    캐스케이드
    ENE → HLT, WAT, FOO
    예측 시계
    1 to 5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-AU-HLT-003

    Outbreaks cross borders faster than response

    InferredEQL 3

    동인
    cholera, mpox and other pathogens
    노출
    dense settlements and mobile populations
    취약성
    safely managed water 32.4%; sanitation 25.9% [22] [23]
    역량
    Africa CDC communiqués in operation [3]
    캐스케이드
    WAT → HLT → FOO, FIN
    예측 시계
    seasonal

    No domain reading

  • RSK-AU-FIN-004

    Uninsured disaster losses reach public budgets

    Expert inputEQL 2

    동인
    floods, drought, storms and cyclones
    노출
    households and public infrastructure
    취약성
    loss and insured-share data not read in this edition
    역량
    national schemes; not assessed
    캐스케이드
    CLI → FIN → public budgets
    예측 시계
    연간

    물 시스템대기와 날씨

Scenario · SCN-AU-CLI-01

Compound drought, price and outbreak year

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

1 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → FOOdrought and heat cut crop and livestock output
  2. 2FOO → HLTprices rise and undernourishment grows
  3. 3CLI → WATlow flows cut safe water supply
  4. 4WAT → HLTunsafe water and weak sanitation raise outbreak risk
  5. 5ENE → HLTpower and cooking gaps limit clinic and household response
  6. 6HLT → FINpublic budgets absorb relief and response costs

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The African Union matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core 시스템. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
출발WATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrong중간 규모 손실Strong
ENE중간 규모 손실·StrongStrong중간 규모 손실
FOO중간 규모 손실Weak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeak중간 규모 손실·Weak
BIOStrong중간 규모 손실Strong중간 규모 손실·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → FOOdrought and heat cut crop and livestock outputInferred
  2. CLI → WAT → HLTlow flows and heat reduce safe water and raise disease riskInferred
  3. ENE → HLTno power or clean fuel raises household health and clinic riskInferred
  4. FOO → HLTprice and income shocks raise undernourishment보고값
  5. BIO → WAT, FOOforest loss changes water regulation and land useInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of African Union.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of African Union
ID판Sector or system상태Statement
DEV-001아프리카연합DEV 개발 보고값Sub-Saharan Africa had 1.32 billion people in 2025, growing 2.4% a year, and 40.4% of them were under 15.
ENE-002아프리카연합ENE 에너지 보고값In 2024, 55.1% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa had electricity, up from 46.4% in 2018; about 579 million had none (derived).
ENE-003아프리카연합ENE 에너지 보고값Only 22.9% of people had access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking in 2024; about 994 million did not (derived).
ENE-004아프리카연합ENE 에너지 보고값Renewables supplied 32.6% of electricity output in 2021, the latest year published, and 70.3% of final energy consumption in 2020.
FOO-005아프리카연합FOO 식량 보고값The prevalence of undernourishment was 22.3% in 2024, up from 19.3% in 2018; about 288 million people (derived).
FOO-006아프리카연합FOO 식량 보고값Agriculture employed 49.8% of workers in 2024 and produced 18.0% of GDP, so farm shocks reach half the labour force.
WAT-007아프리카연합WAT 물 보고값In 2024, 32.4% of people used safely managed drinking water and 25.9% used safely managed sanitation; withdrawals were 3.4% of internal resources in 2022 on average.
HLT-008아프리카연합HLT 보건 보고값Under-5 mortality fell from 79.0 to 71.2 per 1,000 live births between 2018 and 2024, and life expectancy reached 62.8 years.
FIN-009아프리카연합FIN 금융 보고값GDP was USD 2.21 trillion in 2025 and grew 4.1%, with GDP per person of USD 1,673 in current terms.
BIO-010아프리카연합BIO 생물다양성 보고값Protected areas covered 17.3% of land and 7.1% of territorial waters in 2025, and forest fell from 27.1% to 25.7% of land between 2015 and 2023.
CLI-011아프리카연합CLI Climate forcing 보고값WMO reported 2024 as one of the warmest years on record for Africa, and the warmest decade; CO2 emissions were 0.70 tonnes per person in 2024.
SYS-012아프리카연합SYS 시스템 Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought year across several member states, met by high food prices and a disease outbreak.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for African Union.

The desks’ editions for African Union
데스크판상태식별자
GCRI Systems EvidenceAfrican Union 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: African Union 2026준비 중
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: African Union 2026준비 중
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: African Union 2026준비 중

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03근거 마감30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07정정after release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-AU-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

정정 기록

Versions and corrections
버전날짜상태변화공지
NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,없음
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
격차Shown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/au/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
보고서기여하기

Send evidence or a correction on African Union.

보고서 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) 시스템 증거 담당 부서에 속합니다. 이 주제에 대해 아시는 내용은 다음 판에서 증거, 사례 또는 정정이 될 수 있으며, 귀하의 이름으로 표기되고 직접 작성한 저작물인 경우 CC BY 4.0으로 발행됩니다. 잘못된 부서에 보내더라도 거절되지 않고 전달됩니다.

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