Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

13 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and carried by services that do not yet reach everyone
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compound drought, price and outbreak year
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 51 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.151 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1African Union Commission (ed.), Member States of the African Union. African Union, Addis Ababa, page states 55 member states, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
  2. 2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
  3. 3Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (ed.), Mpox updates, including the communiqué dated 22 January 2026 on lifting the Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (title read; full text not read). Africa CDC, Addis Ababa, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  4. 4World Bank (ed.), “Population, total, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  5. 5World Bank (ed.), “Population growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.GROW. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  6. 6World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 0-14 (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  7. 7World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 65 and above (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8World Bank (ed.), “Urban population (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6
  9. 9World Bank (ed.), “Life expectancy at birth, total (years), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10World Bank (ed.), “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, series compiled by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11World Bank (ed.), “GDP (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  12. 12World Bank (ed.), “GDP per capita (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  13. 13World Bank (ed.), “GDP growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  14. 14World Bank (ed.), “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  17. 17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19World Bank (ed.), “Renewable electricity output (% of total electricity output), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2021, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20World Bank (ed.), “Renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy consumption), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2020, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21World Bank (ed.), “Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions excluding LULUCF per capita, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  22. 22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24World Bank (ed.), “Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2022, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
  25. 25World Bank (ed.), “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26World Bank (ed.), “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27World Bank (ed.), “Forest area (% of land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  28. 28African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want, framework document. African Union, Addis Ababa, 2015. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  29. 29African Union (ed.), Constitutive Act of the African Union. African Union, Lome, 2000. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  30. 30African Union Commission (ed.), African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022 to 2032). African Union, Addis Ababa, 2022. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  31. 31African Union Commission (ed.), Programme of Action for the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 in Africa. African Union, Addis Ababa. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32African Union (ed.), Agreement Establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area. African Union, Kigali, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33African Union (ed.), Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods. African Union, Malabo, 2014. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34African Union (ed.), Kampala CAADP Declaration, Extraordinary Summit on the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme. African Union, Kampala, January 2025. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  35. 35African Union Commission and AUDA-NEPAD (eds.), Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) Priority Action Plan 2021 to 2030. African Union, Addis Ababa. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  36. 36Heads of State and Government (eds.), Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit declaration. Dar es Salaam, January 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  37. 37International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022, World Energy Outlook special report. IEA, Paris, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 9. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
  39. 39E. Archer, L. Dziba, K. J. Mulongoy et al. (eds.), The Regional Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for Africa. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2018. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  40. 40UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2022: Our World at Risk. UNDRR, Geneva, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41Africa Climate Summit (ed.), Nairobi Declaration. Africa Climate Summit, Nairobi, September 2023. Cited in chapter 4
  42. 42United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  45. 45Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  46. 46UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  49. 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  50. 50S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  51. 51United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution A/RES/70/1. United Nations, New York, 2015. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
African Union Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-AU-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
AUNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-NAT-AU-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. AU edition Reports African Union 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; AU is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In African Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the African Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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