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African Union 2026

Afrika Birliği

The African Union enters 2027 with a growing and young population, an economy that grew 4.1% in 2025 on the World Bank Sub-Saharan Africa measure, and large gaps in the services that tie water, energy, food and health together. In 2024, 55.1% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa had electricity, 22.9% had clean cooking, 32.4% had safely managed drinking water and 25.9% had safely managed sanitation.

Read the editionTehlikeye maruziyet
Bulgular
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Kaynaklar
51
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

African Union in six readings.

Six readings that frame the African Union baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 1.32billionpeople, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2025 [4]
  • 40.4%aged under 15, 2025 [6]
  • 3.2%aged 65 or over, 2025 [7]
  • 44.7%urban population, 2025 [8]
  • 2.21USD trillionGDP, current prices, 2025 [11]
  • 55member statesin the Union at evidence close [1]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATSu1 finding

    32.4% People using safely managed drinking water, 2024. Bildirilen

    32.4% safely managed drinking water; 25.9% safely managed sanitation (2024).

  2. ENEEnerji3 findings

    55.1% People with access to electricity, 2024. Bildirilen

    55.1% with electricity; 22.9% with clean cooking (2024).

  3. INFAltyapınot assessed

    Infrastructure programme is set out in PIDA; asset condition is not assessed here.

  4. FOOGıda2 findings

    22.3% Prevalence of undernourishment, 2024. Bildirilen

    22.3% undernourished; 49.8% of employment in agriculture.

  5. HLTSağlık1 finding

    71.2 per 1,000 Under-5 mortality, per 1,000 live births, 2024. Bildirilen

    Under-5 mortality 71.2 per 1,000; life expectancy 62.8 years (2024).

  6. BIOBiyoçeşitlilik1 finding

    17.3% Land in terrestrial protected areas, 2025. Bildirilen

    Protected land 17.3% and sea 7.1% (2025); forest 25.7% of land (2023).

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 1, Development 1, Finance 1, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-AU-CLI-001

    Drought across several member states in one season

    InferredEQL 3

    İtici güç
    failed rains and heat in several regions at once
    Maruziyet
    farming households and rain-fed sistemleri; 49.8% of employment [15]
    Kırılganlık
    undernourishment 22.3% [16]
    Kapasite
    AU climate strategy [30]; erken uyarıyı not assessed here
    Zincirleme etki
    CLI → FOO, WAT, HLT
    Ufuk
    seasonal

    Su sistemleriAtmosfer ve hava durumu

  • RSK-AU-ENE-002

    Household and clinic power and cooking gaps persist

    BildirilenEQL 3

    İtici güç
    slow pace of access gains
    Maruziyet
    households without electricity or clean cooking
    Kırılganlık
    55.1% with electricity; 22.9% with clean cooking [17] [18]
    Kapasite
    Mission 300 declaration [36]
    Zincirleme etki
    ENE → HLT, WAT, FOO
    Ufuk
    1 to 5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-AU-HLT-003

    Outbreaks cross borders faster than response

    InferredEQL 3

    İtici güç
    cholera, mpox and other pathogens
    Maruziyet
    dense settlements and mobile populations
    Kırılganlık
    safely managed water 32.4%; sanitation 25.9% [22] [23]
    Kapasite
    Africa CDC communiqués in operation [3]
    Zincirleme etki
    WAT → HLT → FOO, FIN
    Ufuk
    seasonal

    No domain reading

  • RSK-AU-FIN-004

    Uninsured disaster losses reach public budgets

    Expert inputEQL 2

    İtici güç
    floods, drought, storms and cyclones
    Maruziyet
    households and public infrastructure
    Kırılganlık
    loss and insured-share data not read in this edition
    Kapasite
    national schemes; not assessed
    Zincirleme etki
    CLI → FIN → public budgets
    Ufuk
    yıllık

    Su sistemleriAtmosfer ve hava durumu

Scenario · SCN-AU-CLI-01

Compound drought, price and outbreak year

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

1 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → FOOdrought and heat cut crop and livestock output
  2. 2FOO → HLTprices rise and undernourishment grows
  3. 3CLI → WATlow flows cut safe water supply
  4. 4WAT → HLTunsafe water and weak sanitation raise outbreak risk
  5. 5ENE → HLTpower and cooking gaps limit clinic and household response
  6. 6HLT → FINpublic budgets absorb relief and response costs

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The African Union matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core sistemleri. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
KimdenWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongOrtaStrong
ENEOrta·StrongStrongOrta
FOOOrtaWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakOrta·Weak
BIOStrongOrtaStrongOrta·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → FOOdrought and heat cut crop and livestock outputInferred
  2. CLI → WAT → HLTlow flows and heat reduce safe water and raise disease riskInferred
  3. ENE → HLTno power or clean fuel raises household health and clinic riskInferred
  4. FOO → HLTprice and income shocks raise undernourishmentBildirilen
  5. BIO → WAT, FOOforest loss changes water regulation and land useInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of African Union.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of African Union
IDBaskıSector or systemDurumStatement
DEV-001Afrika BirliğiDEV Geliştirme BildirilenSub-Saharan Africa had 1.32 billion people in 2025, growing 2.4% a year, and 40.4% of them were under 15.
ENE-002Afrika BirliğiENE Enerji BildirilenIn 2024, 55.1% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa had electricity, up from 46.4% in 2018; about 579 million had none (derived).
ENE-003Afrika BirliğiENE Enerji BildirilenOnly 22.9% of people had access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking in 2024; about 994 million did not (derived).
ENE-004Afrika BirliğiENE Enerji BildirilenRenewables supplied 32.6% of electricity output in 2021, the latest year published, and 70.3% of final energy consumption in 2020.
FOO-005Afrika BirliğiFOO Gıda BildirilenThe prevalence of undernourishment was 22.3% in 2024, up from 19.3% in 2018; about 288 million people (derived).
FOO-006Afrika BirliğiFOO Gıda BildirilenAgriculture employed 49.8% of workers in 2024 and produced 18.0% of GDP, so farm shocks reach half the labour force.
WAT-007Afrika BirliğiWAT Su BildirilenIn 2024, 32.4% of people used safely managed drinking water and 25.9% used safely managed sanitation; withdrawals were 3.4% of internal resources in 2022 on average.
HLT-008Afrika BirliğiHLT Sağlık BildirilenUnder-5 mortality fell from 79.0 to 71.2 per 1,000 live births between 2018 and 2024, and life expectancy reached 62.8 years.
FIN-009Afrika BirliğiFIN Finans BildirilenGDP was USD 2.21 trillion in 2025 and grew 4.1%, with GDP per person of USD 1,673 in current terms.
BIO-010Afrika BirliğiBIO Biyoçeşitlilik BildirilenProtected areas covered 17.3% of land and 7.1% of territorial waters in 2025, and forest fell from 27.1% to 25.7% of land between 2015 and 2023.
CLI-011Afrika BirliğiCLI Climate forcing BildirilenWMO reported 2024 as one of the warmest years on record for Africa, and the warmest decade; CO2 emissions were 0.70 tonnes per person in 2024.
SYS-012Afrika BirliğiSYS Sistemik Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought year across several member states, met by high food prices and a disease outbreak.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for African Union.

The desks’ editions for African Union
MasaBaskıStatüTanımlayıcı
GCRI Systems EvidenceAfrican Union 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: African Union 2026Hazırlanıyor
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: African Union 2026Hazırlanıyor
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: African Union 2026Hazırlanıyor

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Kanıt kapanışı30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Düzeltmelerafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-AU-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Düzeltme günlüğü

Versions and corrections
SürümTarihStatüDeğişimBildirim
NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,yok
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
AçıkShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/au/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
RaporlarKatkıda bulunun

Send evidence or a correction on African Union.

Raporlar is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Sistem Kanıt masasında yer alır. Bu konu hakkında bildikleriniz, bir sonraki sayıda kanıt, vaka veya düzeltme haline gelebilir; size atfedilir ve kendi çalışmanızsa CC BY 4.0 altında yayımlanır. Yanlış masaya gönderilirse reddedilmez, yönlendirilir.

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