Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables25 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and carried by services that do not yet reach everyone
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Development
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Food
    5. 2.5 Water
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Finance
    8. 2.8 Biodiversity
    9. 2.9 Climate forcing
    10. 2.10 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compound drought, price and outbreak year
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002

In 2024, 55.1% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa had electricity, up from 46.4% in 2018, and the recent pace of about 1.5 points a year is about one fifth of the pace that universal access by 2030 would need.

Figure 2.1People with electricity, Sub-Saharan Africa (%)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
201846.4
202048.5
202251.5
202455.1

Source: World Bank indicator EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS17.

Implication

A household without power also lacks reliable cooling, refrigeration, pumping and clinic equipment, so the gap shows up in water, food and health outcomes. Clean cooking is lower still, at 22.9%18. The universal-access target in the 2030 Agenda sets the benchmark51; the 2025 Mission 300 declaration names the same aim for the continent36.

What would move it

The next World Bank release, the 2025 value (null at close) and national electrification programmes would each move this finding.

2.2Development

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-DEV-001

    Sub-Saharan Africa had 1.32 billion people in 2025, growing 2.4% a year, and 40.4% of them were under 15.456

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002

    In 2024, 55.1% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa had electricity, up from 46.4% in 2018; about 579 million had none (derived).174

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Only 22.9% of people had access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking in 2024; about 994 million did not (derived).184

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    Renewables supplied 32.6% of electricity output in 2021, the latest year published, and 70.3% of final energy consumption in 2020.1920

2.4Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-FOO-005

    The prevalence of undernourishment was 22.3% in 2024, up from 19.3% in 2018; about 288 million people (derived).164

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

    Agriculture employed 49.8% of workers in 2024 and produced 18.0% of GDP, so farm shocks reach half the labour force.1415

2.5Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

    In 2024, 32.4% of people used safely managed drinking water and 25.9% used safely managed sanitation; withdrawals were 3.4% of internal resources in 2022 on average.222324

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

    Under-5 mortality fell from 79.0 to 71.2 per 1,000 live births between 2018 and 2024, and life expectancy reached 62.8 years.109

2.7Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

    GDP was USD 2.21 trillion in 2025 and grew 4.1%, with GDP per person of USD 1,673 in current terms.111213

2.8Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010

    Protected areas covered 17.3% of land and 7.1% of territorial waters in 2025, and forest fell from 27.1% to 25.7% of land between 2015 and 2023.252627

2.9Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

    WMO reported 2024 as one of the warmest years on record for Africa, and the warmest decade; CO2 emissions were 0.70 tonnes per person in 2024.221

2.10Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought year across several member states, met by high food prices and a disease outbreak. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  2. 18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  3. 51United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution A/RES/70/1. United Nations, New York, 2015.back
  4. 36Heads of State and Government (eds.), Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit declaration. Dar es Salaam, January 2025.back
  5. 4World Bank (ed.), “Population, total, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  6. 5World Bank (ed.), “Population growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.GROW. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  7. 6World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 0-14 (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  8. 19World Bank (ed.), “Renewable electricity output (% of total electricity output), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2021, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  9. 20World Bank (ed.), “Renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy consumption), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2020, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  10. 16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  11. 14World Bank (ed.), “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  12. 15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  13. 22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  14. 23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  15. 24World Bank (ed.), “Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2022, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  16. 10World Bank (ed.), “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, series compiled by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  17. 9World Bank (ed.), “Life expectancy at birth, total (years), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  18. 11World Bank (ed.), “GDP (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  19. 12World Bank (ed.), “GDP per capita (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  20. 13World Bank (ed.), “GDP growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  21. 25World Bank (ed.), “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  22. 26World Bank (ed.), “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  23. 27World Bank (ed.), “Forest area (% of land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  24. 2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  25. 21World Bank (ed.), “Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions excluding LULUCF per capita, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In African Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the African Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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