Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Reports
Baseline Edition 2026
Complete edition

African Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

The State of the African Union’s Interdependent Systems

Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.

ReportsAU

Country Systems Risk and Resilience

African Union 2026

The State of the African Union’s Interdependent Systems

Baseline Edition 2026NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number: NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close: 30 September 2026, cut NQ-AU-2026-Q0-1
Status: Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI: Issued at deposit
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as: Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). African Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the African Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/au/

Contents

·
Executive summary
1
Chapter 1. The Union’s risk is shared across borders and carried by services that do not yet reach everyone
2
Chapter 2. Key findings
3
Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline
4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
5
Chapter 5. Compound drought, price and outbreak year
6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
7
Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda
8
Chapter 8. Systems in depth
A
Annex A. Methodology
B
Annex B. Data appendix
C
Annex C. References and record

African Union 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables21 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

The African Union enters 2027 with a growing and young population, an economy that grew 4.1% in 2025 on the World Bank Sub-Saharan Africa measure, and large gaps in the services that tie water, energy, food and health together⁴¹³⁶. In 2024, 55.1% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa had electricity, 22.9% had clean cooking, 32.4% had safely managed drinking water and 25.9% had safely managed sanitation¹⁷¹⁸²²²³. The prevalence of undernourishment was 22.3% in 2024, and agriculture employed 49.8% of workers¹⁶¹⁵. WMO reported that 2024 was one of the warmest years on record for Africa and that the continent had its warmest decade on record². This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state for the Union’s five core systems, maps the couplings through which heat, drought, price and disease shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. The data read at close cover Sub-Saharan Africa only, so every figure is labelled with that scope and the AU-wide totals are shown as empty states. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the African Union baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

A young and growing population: 40.4% under 15 and growth of 2.4% a year in Sub-Saharan Africa.⁵⁶
Who lives in the Union?Reported
55.1% of people had electricity in 2024, and 22.9% had clean cooking.¹⁷¹⁸
How far has electricity reached?Reported
22.3% were undernourished in 2024, and half of workers farm.¹⁵¹⁶
How food secure are people?Reported
32.4% used safely managed drinking water and 25.9% safely managed sanitation.²²²³
How safe are water services?Reported
Under-5 mortality fell to 71.2 per 1,000, and life expectancy was 62.8 years.⁹¹⁰
How is health changing?Reported
WMO reports 2024 as one of the warmest years and the warmest decade for Africa.²
What does the climate record show?Reported
17.3% of land and 7.1% of territorial waters in 2025.²⁵²⁶
How much nature is protected?Reported
A drought year across several member states, met by high food prices and a disease outbreak. SCN-AU-CLI-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002

In 2024, 55.1% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa had electricity, up from 46.4% in 2018, and the recent pace of about 1.5 points a year is about one fifth of the pace that universal access by 2030 would need.

Figure S.1People with electricity, Sub-Saharan Africa (%)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
2018		46.4
2020		48.5
2022		51.5
2024		55.1

Source: World Bank indicator EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS¹⁷.

A household without power also lacks reliable cooling, refrigeration, pumping and clinic equipment, so the gap shows up in water, food and health outcomes. Clean cooking is lower still, at 22.9%¹⁸. The universal-access target in the 2030 Agenda sets the benchmark⁵¹; the 2025 Mission 300 declaration names the same aim for the continent³⁶.

S.4At a glance

1.32billion

people, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2025⁴

40.4%

aged under 15, 2025⁶

3.2%

aged 65 or over, 2025⁷

44.7%

urban population, 2025⁸

2.21USD trillion

GDP, current prices, 2025¹¹

55member states

in the Union at evidence close¹

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of the Union’s risk: services are thin, farming employs half of workers and the climate record is warming.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a failed harvest, a dry tap or a dark clinic.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Disaster loss and insured-share data were not read, so the protection gap is not sized.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The Union has strong frameworks and thinner evidence on whether water, health care and power keep running through simultaneous multi-country events.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of the African Union’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

4World Bank (ed.), “Population, total, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13World Bank (ed.), “GDP growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 0-14 (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5World Bank (ed.), “Population growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.GROW. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9World Bank (ed.), “Life expectancy at birth, total (years), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, series compiled by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
25World Bank (ed.), “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
26World Bank (ed.), “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
51United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution A/RES/70/1. United Nations, New York, 2015.back
36Heads of State and Government (eds.), Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit declaration. Dar es Salaam, January 2025.back
7World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 65 and above (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8World Bank (ed.), “Urban population (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11World Bank (ed.), “GDP (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
1African Union Commission (ed.), Member States of the African Union. African Union, Addis Ababa, page states 55 member states, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

African Union 2026
Chapter 1

The Union’s risk is shared across borders and carried by services that do not yet reach everyone

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no member state.

6 min read2 figures2 tables14 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

Where is the African Union’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

Narrative
Headline finding
Lead figure
Five system chapters
Twelve-domain reading
Sector screens
Dependency matrix
Risk objects
Capability ladder
Scenario
Three lenses
Portfolio

1.2The argument

The African Union has 55 member states that share river basins, rangelands, coasts, grids and disease pathways¹. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: a changing climate, a young and growing population, and basic services that do not yet reach every household.

The demographic layer is large. Sub-Saharan Africa had 1.32 billion people in 2025, growing 2.4% a year, and 40.4% were under 15⁴⁵⁶. Only 3.2% were 65 or over, so the exposure of older people to heat is not the leading demographic pattern here⁷.

The service layer is thin. In 2024, 55.1% of people had electricity, 22.9% had clean cooking, 32.4% had safely managed drinking water and 25.9% had safely managed sanitation¹⁷¹⁸²²²³. Each gap raises the cost of a shock for health, food and income.

The food layer is tied to farming. Agriculture employed 49.8% of workers in 2024, and 22.3% of people were undernourished¹⁵¹⁶. A season of drought or a spike in prices therefore reaches half the labour force and the households least able to absorb it.

The climate layer is rising. WMO reports that 2024 was one of the warmest years on record for Africa and that the continent had its warmest decade². The IPCC finds that climate hazards already harm food, water and health systems on the continent³⁸.

This edition therefore reads the Union’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How far do basic services reach? Share of people with each service, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2024 (%)

No service reached more than 56% of people in 2024. Clean cooking was lowest at 22.9%¹⁷¹⁸²²²³.

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Electricity		55.1
Safely managed drinking water		32.4
Safely managed sanitation		25.9
Clean cooking		22.9

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-01-003

55.1%

electricity, 2024¹⁷

32.4%

safely managed drinking water, 2024²²

25.9%

safely managed sanitation, 2024²³

22.9%

clean cooking, 2024¹⁸

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The African Union matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

Strong
Moderate
Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, to	WAT	ENE	FOO	HLT	BIO
WAT Water	·	STRONG nuclear cooling · hydro	STRONG irrigation · rain-fed yield	MODERATE drinking water	STRONG flows · wetlands
ENE Energy	MODERATE pumping · treatment	·	STRONG fuel · fertiliser · cold chain	STRONG facility power · cooling	MODERATE reservoirs · land use
FOO Food	MODERATE withdrawals · nutrients	WEAK biofuel feedstock	·	STRONG nutrition · food safety	STRONG land conversion
HLT Health	WEAK workforce	WEAK workforce	MODERATE labour · disease	·	WEAK residues
BIO Biodiversity	STRONG regulation · filtration	MODERATE fire on lines · biomass	STRONG pollination · soils	MODERATE zoonoses · smoke	·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

01
CLI → FOO
Drought and heat cut crop and livestock output.
Inferred IPCC assessment³⁸
02
CLI → WAT → HLT
Low flows and heat reduce safe water and raise disease risk.
Inferred water access²²³⁸
03
ENE → HLT
No power or clean fuel raises household health and clinic risk.
Inferred access¹⁷¹⁸
04
FOO → HLT
Price and income shocks raise undernourishment.
Reported undernourishment trend¹⁶
05
BIO → WAT, FOO
Forest loss changes water regulation and land use.
Inferred forest trend²⁷

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
Loop	First direction	Second direction
WAT and BIO	Water to biodiversity: flows · wetlands	Biodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIO	Food to biodiversity: land conversion	Biodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1African Union Commission (ed.), Member States of the African Union. African Union, Addis Ababa, page states 55 member states, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
4World Bank (ed.), “Population, total, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5World Bank (ed.), “Population growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.GROW. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 0-14 (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
7World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 65 and above (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
38C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 9. Cambridge University Press, 2022.back
27World Bank (ed.), “Forest area (% of land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

African Union 2026
Chapter 2

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables25 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002

Figure 2.1People with electricity, Sub-Saharan Africa (%)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
2018		46.4
2020		48.5
2022		51.5
2024		55.1

Source: World Bank indicator EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS¹⁷.

Implication

What would move it

The next World Bank release, the 2025 value (null at close) and national electrification programmes would each move this finding.

2.2Development

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-DEV-001
Sub-Saharan Africa had 1.32 billion people in 2025, growing 2.4% a year, and 40.4% of them were under 15.⁴⁵⁶

2.3Energy

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002
In 2024, 55.1% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa had electricity, up from 46.4% in 2018; about 579 million had none (derived).¹⁷⁴
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003
Only 22.9% of people had access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking in 2024; about 994 million did not (derived).¹⁸⁴
ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004
Renewables supplied 32.6% of electricity output in 2021, the latest year published, and 70.3% of final energy consumption in 2020.¹⁹²⁰

2.4Food

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-FOO-005
The prevalence of undernourishment was 22.3% in 2024, up from 19.3% in 2018; about 288 million people (derived).¹⁶⁴
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006
Agriculture employed 49.8% of workers in 2024 and produced 18.0% of GDP, so farm shocks reach half the labour force.¹⁴¹⁵

2.5Water

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007
In 2024, 32.4% of people used safely managed drinking water and 25.9% used safely managed sanitation; withdrawals were 3.4% of internal resources in 2022 on average.²²²³²⁴

2.6Health

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008
Under-5 mortality fell from 79.0 to 71.2 per 1,000 live births between 2018 and 2024, and life expectancy reached 62.8 years.¹⁰⁹

2.7Finance

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009
GDP was USD 2.21 trillion in 2025 and grew 4.1%, with GDP per person of USD 1,673 in current terms.¹¹¹²¹³

2.8Biodiversity

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010
Protected areas covered 17.3% of land and 7.1% of territorial waters in 2025, and forest fell from 27.1% to 25.7% of land between 2015 and 2023.²⁵²⁶²⁷

2.9Climate forcing

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011
WMO reported 2024 as one of the warmest years on record for Africa, and the warmest decade; CO2 emissions were 0.70 tonnes per person in 2024.²²¹

2.10Systemic

Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought year across several member states, met by high food prices and a disease outbreak. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
51United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution A/RES/70/1. United Nations, New York, 2015.back
36Heads of State and Government (eds.), Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit declaration. Dar es Salaam, January 2025.back
4World Bank (ed.), “Population, total, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5World Bank (ed.), “Population growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.GROW. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 0-14 (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
19World Bank (ed.), “Renewable electricity output (% of total electricity output), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2021, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
20World Bank (ed.), “Renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy consumption), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2020, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14World Bank (ed.), “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
24World Bank (ed.), “Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2022, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, series compiled by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9World Bank (ed.), “Life expectancy at birth, total (years), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11World Bank (ed.), “GDP (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12World Bank (ed.), “GDP per capita (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13World Bank (ed.), “GDP growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
25World Bank (ed.), “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
26World Bank (ed.), “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
27World Bank (ed.), “Forest area (% of land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
21World Bank (ed.), “Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions excluding LULUCF per capita, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

African Union 2026
Chapter 3

Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables19 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

People using safely managed drinking water

32.4%

Safely managed sanitation reached 25.9%.

Reported2024World Bank²²

ENE · Energy

People with access to electricity

55.1%

Clean cooking reached 22.9%.

Reported2024World Bank¹⁷

FOO · Food

Prevalence of undernourishment

22.3%

The share was 19.3% in 2018.

Reported2024World Bank¹⁶

HLT · Health

Under-5 mortality, per 1,000 live births

71.2per 1,000

It was 79.0 in 2018.

Reported2024World Bank¹⁰

BIO · Biodiversity

Land in terrestrial protected areas

17.3%

Marine protection was 7.1% of territorial waters.

Reported2025World Bank²⁵

SYS · Cross-system

Employment in agriculture

49.8%

Agriculture was 18.0% of GDP.

Reported2024World Bank¹⁵

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	32.4% safely managed drinking water; 25.9% safely managed sanitation (2024).	WAT → HLT · WAT → FOO	Reported EQL 4
ENE	55.1% with electricity; 22.9% with clean cooking (2024).	ENE → all	Reported EQL 4
FOO	22.3% undernourished; 49.8% of employment in agriculture.	FOO ← CLI, WAT, ENE	Reported EQL 4
HLT	Under-5 mortality 71.2 per 1,000; life expectancy 62.8 years (2024).	HLT ← WAT, ENE, CLI	Reported EQL 4
BIO	Protected land 17.3% and sea 7.1% (2025); forest 25.7% of land (2023).	BIO ↔ WAT, FOO	Reported EQL 4
CLI	One of the warmest years on record for Africa in 2024; warmest decade.	forcing on all systems	Reported EQL 4
INF	Infrastructure programme is set out in PIDA; asset condition is not assessed here.	INF → all	Reported EQL 2
FIN	GDP USD 2.21 trillion in 2025; disaster losses and insured share not shown.	FIN ← CLI	Reported EQL 3
DAT	Digital dependencies of lifelines are not mapped at public-safe resolution.	DAT → ENE, FIN	Expert input EQL 2
AIC	Data-centre power and water demand is not shown.	AIC → ENE, WAT	Expert input EQL 2
MIN	Mineral supply chains are not shown in this edition.	MIN ← TRD	Expert input EQL 2
TRD	The African Continental Free Trade Area agreement is in force; trade volumes are not shown.	TRD → all	Reported EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	compound drought, price and outbreak stress	drought met by high prices and disease	THIN
GS-01	Water	safely managed water 32.4%²²	drought; flood	PARTIAL
GS-02	Energy	electricity 55.1%; clean cooking 22.9%¹⁷¹⁸	supply shortfall; fuel price	PARTIAL
GS-03	Food	undernourishment 22.3%¹⁶	price and input shocks	PARTIAL
GS-04	Health	under-5 mortality 71.2 per 1,000¹⁰	outbreak and heat load	PARTIAL
GS-05	Finance	GDP USD 2.21 trillion¹¹; losses not shown	catastrophe fiscal cost	THIN
GS-06	Development	1.32 billion people; 40.4% under 15⁴⁶	service strain in fast-growing areas	GOOD
GS-07	Climate	warmest decade on record²	heat; drought; flood	PARTIAL
GS-08	Disaster	AU Sendai programme in place³¹	simultaneous events in several states	THIN
GS-09	Infrastructure	PIDA programme³⁵; asset condition not mapped	cross-border grid and transport links	THIN
GS-10	Cities	urban share 44.7%⁸; city-scale exposure not mapped	heat; flooding	THIN
GS-11	Biodiversity	protected land 17.3%; forest 25.7%²⁵²⁷	land use; fire	PARTIAL
GS-12	Earth observation	annual WMO regional reports²	continuity	PARTIAL
GS-13	Cyber and digital	dependencies not mapped	systemic outages	THIN
GS-14	Policy	Agenda 2063 and climate strategy²⁸³⁰	coordination across 55 states	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	IPCC and IPBES assessments for Africa³⁸³⁹	translation to national scale	PARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, series compiled by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
25World Bank (ed.), “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11World Bank (ed.), “GDP (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
4World Bank (ed.), “Population, total, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 0-14 (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
31African Union Commission (ed.), Programme of Action for the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 in Africa. African Union, Addis Ababa.back
35African Union Commission and AUDA-NEPAD (eds.), Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) Priority Action Plan 2021 to 2030. African Union, Addis Ababa.back
8World Bank (ed.), “Urban population (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
27World Bank (ed.), “Forest area (% of land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
28African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want, framework document. African Union, Addis Ababa, 2015.back
30African Union Commission (ed.), African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022 to 2032). African Union, Addis Ababa, 2022.back
38C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 9. Cambridge University Press, 2022.back
39E. Archer, L. Dziba, K. J. Mulongoy et al. (eds.), The Regional Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for Africa. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2018.back

African Union 2026
Chapter 4

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table18 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

InferredEQL 3RSK-AU-CLI-001
Drought across several member states in one season
Driver
failed rains and heat in several regions at once
Exposure
farming households and rain-fed systems; 49.8% of employment¹⁵
Vulnerability
undernourishment 22.3%¹⁶
Capacity
AU climate strategy³⁰; early warning not assessed here
Cascade
CLI → FOO, WAT, HLT
Horizon
seasonal
ReportedEQL 3RSK-AU-ENE-002
Household and clinic power and cooking gaps persist
Driver
slow pace of access gains
Exposure
households without electricity or clean cooking
Vulnerability
55.1% with electricity; 22.9% with clean cooking¹⁷¹⁸
Capacity
Mission 300 declaration³⁶
Cascade
ENE → HLT, WAT, FOO
Horizon
1 to 5 years
InferredEQL 3RSK-AU-HLT-003
Outbreaks cross borders faster than response
Driver
cholera, mpox and other pathogens
Exposure
dense settlements and mobile populations
Vulnerability
safely managed water 32.4%; sanitation 25.9%²²²³
Capacity
Africa CDC communiqués in operation³
Cascade
WAT → HLT → FOO, FIN
Horizon
seasonal
Expert inputEQL 2RSK-AU-FIN-004
Uninsured disaster losses reach public budgets
Driver
floods, drought, storms and cyclones
Exposure
households and public infrastructure
Vulnerability
loss and insured-share data not read in this edition
Capacity
national schemes; not assessed
Cascade
CLI → FIN → public budgets
Horizon
annual

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
Function	Level	Strongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigation	EXISTS	AU climate strategy 2022 to 2032³⁰
Monitoring and observation	DEMONSTRATED	annual WMO State of the Climate in Africa²
Early warning	LISTED	continental early warning not assessed in this edition
Preparedness and planning	EXISTS	AU Sendai programme³¹; Sendai Framework⁴⁴
Redundancy and reserves	LISTED	not assessed in this edition
Response	DEMONSTRATED	Africa CDC outbreak communiqués, including the mpox emergency lifted in 2026³
Continuity of critical services	LISTED	asset condition not mapped at public-safe resolution
Recovery	LISTED	recovery funding routes not assessed in this edition
Adaptation	EXISTS	AU climate strategy and Nairobi Declaration³⁰⁴¹
Social protection	LISTED	not assessed in this edition
Finance and insurance	LISTED	loss and cover data not read in this edition
Institutional coordination	EXISTS	Constitutive Act and Agenda 2063²⁸²⁹
Technical infrastructure	EXISTS	PIDA programme³⁵; condition not assessed
Workforce	LISTED	not assessed in this edition
Research capacity	ADEQUATE	IPCC and IPBES assessments for Africa³⁸³⁹
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
30African Union Commission (ed.), African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022 to 2032). African Union, Addis Ababa, 2022.back
17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
36Heads of State and Government (eds.), Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit declaration. Dar es Salaam, January 2025.back
22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (ed.), Mpox updates, including the communiqué dated 22 January 2026 on lifting the Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (title read; full text not read). Africa CDC, Addis Ababa, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
31African Union Commission (ed.), Programme of Action for the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 in Africa. African Union, Addis Ababa.back
44UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
41Africa Climate Summit (ed.), Nairobi Declaration. Africa Climate Summit, Nairobi, September 2023.back
28African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want, framework document. African Union, Addis Ababa, 2015.back
29African Union (ed.), Constitutive Act of the African Union. African Union, Lome, 2000.back
35African Union Commission and AUDA-NEPAD (eds.), Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) Priority Action Plan 2021 to 2030. African Union, Addis Ababa.back
38C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 9. Cambridge University Press, 2022.back
39E. Archer, L. Dziba, K. J. Mulongoy et al. (eds.), The Regional Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for Africa. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2018.back

African Union 2026
Chapter 5

Compound drought, price and outbreak year

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

3 min read0 figures0 tables7 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline: the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers: failed rains and heat across several regions of the continent, with high food prices and a cholera or similar outbreak in the same year
Analogues: the undernourishment trend since 2018¹⁶; the WMO decade record²
Interventions: none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state: narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1
CLI → FOO
drought and heat cut crop and livestock output
IPCC assessment³⁸
2
FOO → HLT
prices rise and undernourishment grows
trend¹⁶
3
CLI → WAT
low flows cut safe water supply
water access²²
4
WAT → HLT
unsafe water and weak sanitation raise outbreak risk
sanitation²³
5
ENE → HLT
power and cooking gaps limit clinic and household response
access¹⁷¹⁸
6
HLT → FIN
public budgets absorb relief and response costs
to be bound in 2027

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01 would travel through African Union’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Climate to food	Drought and heat cut crop and livestock output. Analogue or source: IPCC assessment [38].	Edition AU, scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01, step 1
02 Food to health	Prices rise and undernourishment grows. Analogue or source: trend [16].	Edition AU, scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01, step 2
03 Climate to water	Low flows cut safe water supply. Analogue or source: water access [22].	Edition AU, scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01, step 3
04 Water to health	Unsafe water and weak sanitation raise outbreak risk. Analogue or source: sanitation [23].	Edition AU, scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01, step 4
05 Energy to health	Power and cooking gaps limit clinic and household response. Analogue or source: access [17] [18].	Edition AU, scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01, step 5
06 Health to finance	Public budgets absorb relief and response costs. Analogue or source: to be bound in 2027.	Edition AU, scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: African Union 2026, scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01 (2026); African Union 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
38C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 9. Cambridge University Press, 2022.back
22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

African Union 2026
Chapter 6

Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

14 min read0 figures8 tables49 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of the Union’s risk: services are thin, farming employs half of workers and the climate record is warming. Evidence is strongest for population, access and mortality series and weakest for losses, capacity and AU-wide totals.

DEV-001 · ENE-002 · FOO-005 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a failed harvest, a dry tap or a dark clinic. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how a young population and growing cities change who needs which service first.

WAT-007 · HLT-008 · FOO-006

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Disaster loss and insured-share data were not read, so the protection gap is not sized. This shows where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or a recommendation to invest.

FIN-009 · CLI-011

NEXUS

Synthesis

The Union has strong frameworks and thinner evidence on whether water, health care and power keep running through simultaneous multi-country events. The 2027 programme should map cross-border dependencies, test the compound year and measure access, price and outbreak exposure.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for the African Union. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
GCRI Canada	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
African Union	national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups	national Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Rain, rivers, markets and pathogens do not stop at a border. The baseline treats the Union as one coupled system whose 55 states carry unequal exposure, not as 55 separate ones.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

The risk is shared

With 55.1% of people on electricity and 32.4% on safely managed water, a shock lands on households with little buffer. Access to basic services is a risk measure as much as a development one.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Services are the first defence

Half of workers farm, and one in five people is undernourished. A bad season is therefore an income shock, a price shock and a health shock together.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Farming carries the economy

Many of the figures a risk reader needs, such as AU-wide totals, losses and capacity, were not available to this edition. The programme for 2027 starts by closing those gaps, not by estimating them.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Evidence is the gap

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First Q1 2027 entry
E1	National risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	NWG delivery register	no groups yet	first monthly outputs
E5	NNC capability register	membership opens in Q1 2027	first contributions
E6	NLC questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	environment prepared	first sealed cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first correction cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Constitutive Act of the African Union²⁹	African Union	continental	IN FORCE	institutional basis
Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want²⁸	African Union Commission	continental	ADOPTED 2015	development framework
Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan 2022 to 2032³⁰	African Union Commission	continental	ADOPTED	adaptation and mitigation
Programme of Action for the Sendai Framework in Africa³¹⁴⁴	African Union Commission · UNDRR	continental	ADOPTED	disaster risk reduction
Agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area³²	African Union	continental	IN FORCE 2019	trade
Malabo Declaration³³ and Kampala CAADP Declaration³⁴	African Union	continental	ADOPTED 2014 · 2025	agriculture and food systems
PIDA Priority Action Plan³⁵	African Union · AUDA-NEPAD	continental	PUBLISHED	infrastructure
Mission 300 declaration³⁶	Dar es Salaam energy summit	continental	Declared	electrification
Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda⁵¹	United Nations	international	ADOPTED 2015	SDG targets
Kunming-Montreal Framework⁴⁵	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30
Paris Agreement⁴⁶	UNFCCC	international	IN FORCE	emissions and adaptation

Changed since 2024

The Kampala CAADP declaration was adopted in January 2025³⁴
The Mission 300 energy summit declaration was made in 2025³⁶
Africa CDC announced the lifting of the mpox continental emergency in a communiqué dated 22 January 2026³

To watch in 2027

Delivery reporting on the Kampala CAADP declaration³⁴
Progress on Mission 300 electrification³⁶
Next reporting round on the Sendai Framework in Africa³¹

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about the African Union’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lee and Romero (eds.)⁴³	assessment	2023	context	forcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)⁴⁷	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.⁴⁸	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
Trisos et al.³⁸	assessment chapter	2022	supports	climate impacts in Africa
IPBES regional assessment for Africa³⁹	assessment	2018	supports	biodiversity and nature
Foundational Edition⁴⁹	edition	2026	framework	series model

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
State of the Climate in Africa 2024²	WMO	2025	supports	climate record
Global Assessment Report 2022⁴⁰	UNDRR	2022	context	disaster risk
Africa Energy Outlook 2022³⁷	IEA	2022	context	energy access
Agenda 2063²⁸	African Union Commission	2015	context	continental framework
Climate strategy 2022 to 2032³⁰	African Union Commission	2022	context	adaptation

Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Population series⁴⁵⁶⁷⁸	World Bank	2025	supports	profile
Access series¹⁷¹⁸²²²³	World Bank	2024	supports	services
Food and farming series¹⁴¹⁵¹⁶	World Bank	2024 to 2025	supports	food
Health series⁹¹⁰	World Bank	2024	supports	health
Protected areas and forest²⁵²⁶²⁷	World Bank	2023 to 2025	supports	biodiversity

Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Economic series¹¹¹²¹³	World Bank	2025	supports	economy
Emissions and renewables¹⁹²⁰²¹	World Bank	2020 to 2024	supports	energy and climate
Population database⁴²	UN DESA	2024	context	AU-wide totals to be bound
Mpox communiqué³	Africa CDC	2026	context	health response
Nexus global baseline⁵⁰	GCRI	2026	context	series peers

Where the evidence agrees

Africa is warming and the last decade was the warmest on record²³⁸
Basic service gaps raise the cost of shocks¹⁷²²
Farming is central to livelihoods¹⁴¹⁵

Where it is unsettled

How Sub-Saharan Africa series compare with AU-wide totals¹⁴
How fast access to electricity and clean cooking can rise¹⁷¹⁸
How much of the undernourishment trend is climate, price or conflict driven¹⁶

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

29African Union (ed.), Constitutive Act of the African Union. African Union, Lome, 2000.back
28African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want, framework document. African Union, Addis Ababa, 2015.back
30African Union Commission (ed.), African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022 to 2032). African Union, Addis Ababa, 2022.back
31African Union Commission (ed.), Programme of Action for the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 in Africa. African Union, Addis Ababa.back
44UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
32African Union (ed.), Agreement Establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area. African Union, Kigali, 2018.back
33African Union (ed.), Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods. African Union, Malabo, 2014.back
34African Union (ed.), Kampala CAADP Declaration, Extraordinary Summit on the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme. African Union, Kampala, January 2025.back
35African Union Commission and AUDA-NEPAD (eds.), Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) Priority Action Plan 2021 to 2030. African Union, Addis Ababa.back
36Heads of State and Government (eds.), Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit declaration. Dar es Salaam, January 2025.back
51United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution A/RES/70/1. United Nations, New York, 2015.back
45Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
46UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
3Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (ed.), Mpox updates, including the communiqué dated 22 January 2026 on lifting the Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (title read; full text not read). Africa CDC, Addis Ababa, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
43H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
47P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
48J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
38C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 9. Cambridge University Press, 2022.back
39E. Archer, L. Dziba, K. J. Mulongoy et al. (eds.), The Regional Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for Africa. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2018.back
49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
40UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2022: Our World at Risk. UNDRR, Geneva, 2022.back
37International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022, World Energy Outlook special report. IEA, Paris, 2022.back
4World Bank (ed.), “Population, total, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5World Bank (ed.), “Population growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.GROW. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 0-14 (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
7World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 65 and above (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8World Bank (ed.), “Urban population (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14World Bank (ed.), “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9World Bank (ed.), “Life expectancy at birth, total (years), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, series compiled by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
25World Bank (ed.), “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
26World Bank (ed.), “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
27World Bank (ed.), “Forest area (% of land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11World Bank (ed.), “GDP (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12World Bank (ed.), “GDP per capita (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13World Bank (ed.), “GDP growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
19World Bank (ed.), “Renewable electricity output (% of total electricity output), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2021, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
20World Bank (ed.), “Renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy consumption), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2020, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
21World Bank (ed.), “Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions excluding LULUCF per capita, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
42United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
50S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
1African Union Commission (ed.), Member States of the African Union. African Union, Addis Ababa, page states 55 member states, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

African Union 2026
Chapter 7

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

A-01
How would a drought year across several member states hit food, water, health and incomes at once?
INI-AU-CLI-01 · compound drought stress; first output: dependency graph for two regions.
A-02
How fast can electricity and clean cooking reach people, and what limits the pace?
INI-AU-ENE-02 · access pace; first output: access pace table by region.
A-03
How exposed are food systems to price and input shocks?
INI-AU-FOO-03 · food price exposure; first output: input and import dependence table.
A-04
How much outbreak response and care capacity exists, and how fast does it move across borders?
INI-AU-HLT-04 · outbreak response; first output: response capability register.
A-05
Who carries disaster losses, and how large is the protection gap?
INI-AU-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: loss and cover table by hazard.
A-06
How do shared river basins and lakes perform under drought and flood?
INI-AU-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.
A-07
How resilient are mineral and digital supply chains to concentrated demand?
To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.
A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?
AU capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
ID	Object	Kind	Question	State
INI-AU-CLI-01	Compound drought, price and outbreak stress	Initiative	A-01	PROPOSED
INI-AU-ENE-02	Pace of electricity and clean cooking access	Initiative	A-02	PROPOSED
INI-AU-FOO-03	Food price and input exposure	Initiative	A-03	PROPOSED
INI-AU-HLT-04	Outbreak response across borders	Initiative	A-04	PROPOSED
INI-AU-FIN-05	Disaster protection gap	Initiative	A-05	PROPOSED
PRJ-AU-CLI-01a	Two-region compound stress graph	Project	A-01	PROPOSED
MSN-AU-2027-01	Compound drought year Universe mission	Mission	A-01	Candidate

7.3The pathway

African Union is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in the African Union from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

01
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment
02
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027
03
National Model
the country as a system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut
04
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment
05
Foundry
continuous computational environment
PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-AU-2027-Q1
06
Reports
quarterly and annual publication
BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda
07
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027
08
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

01
Mandate
02
Core Build · 1 month
03
Action · 1 week
04
Evidence seal
05
Portfolio correction
06
Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
Item	Record	State	Timing
F1	Annual mandate record	PLANNED	after the Q2 2027 alignment
F2	Core Build record	PLANNED	one month before the exercise
F3	Exercise evidence	PLANNED	during the Action week
F4	Decision packets	PLANNED	exercise state only
F5	Proof receipts	PLANNED	scoped to each recorded check
F6	After-action report	PLANNED	within one quarter
F7	Upgrade docket	PLANNED	routed to the Portfolio
F8	Portfolio renewal	PLANNED	Q4 2027 annual edition
F9	Public synthesis	PLANNED	public-safe extracts only

Mission

ID: MSN-AU-2027-01 · Compound drought year Universe mission
Role spine: Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors: to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
Finding	Routed to	Purpose	Class
DEV-001 · population	public record	reference for the 2027 series	PUBLIC
ENE-002 · electricity	INI-AU-ENE-02	access pace table	PUBLIC
FOO-005 · undernourishment	INI-AU-FOO-03	input exposure	PUBLIC
WAT-007 · water services	INI-AU-CLI-01	two-region graph	PUBLIC
HLT-008 · health	INI-AU-HLT-04	outbreak response register	PUBLIC
BIO-010 · protection	INI-AU-CLI-01	two-region graph	PUBLIC
FIN-009 · economy	INI-AU-FIN-05 · key F review	protection gap	PUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathway	MSN-AU-2027-01	Universe candidate	CONSORTIUM

Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
Class	Where it goes	Who can see it
PUBLIC	the published edition and its evidence bundle	anyone
CONSORTIUM	governed rooms of the national pathway	consortium members under agreement
CONTROLLED	need-to-know channels	named competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
Feed	Producer	Latency	Feeds into
Climate monitoring	WMO · regional climate centres	annual report	CLI findings
Outbreak communiqués	Africa CDC	as issued	HLT-008
Population and economy	World Bank	annual	DEV findings
Access to electricity and clean cooking	World Bank	annual	ENE-002
Undernourishment	World Bank carrying FAO series	annual	FOO-005
Water and sanitation	World Bank carrying WHO and UNICEF series	annual	WAT-007
Protected areas and forest	World Bank	annual	BIO-010

Escalation routes

none · keep monitoring
research question
project
risk object
quarterly publication
signal report

Table 7.6Signals at baseline
ID	Signal	Corroboration	Systems	Route
SIG-AU-001	Warmest decade on record for Africa²	CORROBORATED	CLI · FOO	risk object RSK-AU-CLI-001
SIG-AU-002	Undernourishment rose each year from 2018 to 2024¹⁶	CORROBORATED	FOO · HLT	initiative A-03
SIG-AU-003	Mpox continental emergency lifted in 2026³	CORROBORATED	HLT	initiative A-04

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (ed.), Mpox updates, including the communiqué dated 22 January 2026 on lifting the Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (title read; full text not read). Africa CDC, Addis Ababa, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

African Union 2026
Chapter 8

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables21 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Safe water and sanitation reach a minority of people, and the average withdrawal rate hides basin-level stress that this edition cannot yet show.

32.4%

safely managed drinking water, 2024²²

25.9%

safely managed sanitation, 2024²³

3.4%

of internal resources withdrawn, 2022²⁴

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Drinking water	32.4% used safely managed services in 2024	²²	Reported
Sanitation	25.9% used safely managed services in 2024	²³	Reported
Withdrawals	3.4% of internal resources in 2022, a group average	²⁴	Reported
Drought extent	not shown: FAO and national drought data; no dated release read	n/a	NOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

WAT → HLT drinking water and sanitation
CLI → WAT drought and heat
WAT → FOO irrigation and livestock
WAT → ENE hydropower and cooling

Evidence to bind in 2027

drought extent
basin-level shared-water use

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Electricity reached 55.1% of people in 2024 and clean cooking 22.9%. The pace of gain is well below what universal access by 2030 would need.

55.1%

with electricity, 2024¹⁷

22.9%

with clean cooking, 2024¹⁸

32.6%

renewable share of electricity output, 2021¹⁹

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Electricity access	55.1% in 2024, up from 46.4% in 2018	¹⁷	Reported
Clean cooking	22.9% in 2024, up from 17.5% in 2018	¹⁸	Reported
Renewables	32.6% of electricity output in 2021 and 70.3% of final energy in 2020	¹⁹²⁰	Reported
Power capacity	not shown: IRENA capacity statistics; publication page not accessible	n/a	NOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

ENE → HLT clinic power and household fuel
ENE → WAT pumping and treatment
ENE → FOO cold chain and farm energy
CLI → ENE hydropower and peak demand

Evidence to bind in 2027

power capacity by technology
data-centre electricity demand

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Undernourishment has risen since 2018, and half of workers farm. Dependence on imported food and fertiliser matters, but this edition cannot yet show it with sourced numbers.

22.3%

undernourished, 2024¹⁶

49.8%

of employment in agriculture, 2024¹⁵

18.0%

of GDP from agriculture, 2025¹⁴

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Undernourishment	22.3% in 2024, up from 19.3% in 2018	¹⁶	Reported
Livelihoods	49.8% of employment in agriculture in 2024	¹⁵	Reported
Output	agriculture was 18.0% of GDP in 2025	¹⁴	Reported
Imports	not shown: food and fertiliser import shares; FAO and trade data, no figure read	n/a	NOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

CLI → FOO heat and drought
ENE → FOO fuel, fertiliser and cold chain
WAT → FOO irrigation
TRD → FOO imports of food and inputs

Evidence to bind in 2027

food and fertiliser import shares
yield loss in drought years

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Child survival and life expectancy are improving. Water, sanitation and power gaps leave health systems exposed to outbreaks and heat.

71.2per 1,000

under-5 mortality, 2024¹⁰

62.8years

life expectancy, 2024⁹

3.2%

aged 65 or over, 2025⁷

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Child survival	under-5 mortality 71.2 per 1,000 in 2024, from 79.0 in 2018	¹⁰	Reported
Life expectancy	62.8 years in 2024, from 60.8 in 2018	⁹	Reported
Response	Africa CDC announced the lifting of the mpox continental emergency in 2026	³	Reported
Outbreaks	not shown: cholera and mpox counts; Africa CDC and WHO, no figures read	n/a	NOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

WAT → HLT water and sanitation
ENE → HLT clinic power
CLI → HLT heat and disease range
FOO → HLT undernutrition

Evidence to bind in 2027

outbreak counts
care surge capacity

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Protection is growing but forest cover is falling, and nature underpins water, food and health across the Union.

17.3%

of land protected, 2025²⁵

7.1%

of territorial waters protected, 2025²⁶

25.7%

of land forested, 2023²⁷

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Protection	land 17.3% and territorial waters 7.1% in 2025	²⁵²⁶	Reported
Forest	25.7% of land in 2023, from 27.1% in 2015	²⁷	Reported
Framework	Kunming-Montreal Framework sets 30 by 30 aims	⁴⁵	Reported
Condition	not shown: habitat and species condition; no current figure read	n/a	NOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

BIO → WAT watershed regulation
BIO → FOO pollination and soils
CLI → BIO heat, drought and fire

Evidence to bind in 2027

habitat condition
strictly protected share

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
24World Bank (ed.), “Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2022, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
19World Bank (ed.), “Renewable electricity output (% of total electricity output), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2021, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
20World Bank (ed.), “Renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy consumption), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2020, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
36Heads of State and Government (eds.), Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit declaration. Dar es Salaam, January 2025.back
16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14World Bank (ed.), “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
34African Union (ed.), Kampala CAADP Declaration, Extraordinary Summit on the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme. African Union, Kampala, January 2025.back
10World Bank (ed.), “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, series compiled by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9World Bank (ed.), “Life expectancy at birth, total (years), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
7World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 65 and above (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (ed.), Mpox updates, including the communiqué dated 22 January 2026 on lifting the Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (title read; full text not read). Africa CDC, Addis Ababa, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
25World Bank (ed.), “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
26World Bank (ed.), “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
27World Bank (ed.), “Forest area (% of land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
45Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
39E. Archer, L. Dziba, K. J. Mulongoy et al. (eds.), The Regional Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for Africa. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2018.back

African Union 2026
Annex A

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

9 min read0 figures12 tables5 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	People without electricity, 2024 (derived)	(100 − 55.1) × 1,289.9 million	about 579 million
(2)	People without clean cooking, 2024 (derived)	(100 − 22.9) × 1,289.9 million	about 994 million
(3)	Recent pace of electricity access, 2018 to 2024	(55.1 − 46.4) ÷ 6	1.5 points a year
(4)	Pace needed for 100% by 2030	(100 − 55.1) ÷ 6	7.5 points a year
(5)	People undernourished, 2024 (derived)	22.3% × 1,289.9 million	about 288 million

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID: MDL-AU-NATIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent the African Union as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: national scale; not for member state or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

9strong

documented within one season

7moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-AU-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 51 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-AU-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
Element	Baseline 2026	Q1 2027
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	qualified source bindings with versions
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	National Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to the cut
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Population	2025	Oct 2026	annual	not stated in sources read
Access to electricity	2024	Oct 2026	annual	not stated in sources read
Clean cooking	2024	Oct 2026	annual	not stated in sources read
Undernourishment	2024	Oct 2026	annual	not stated in sources read
Renewable electricity output	2021	Oct 2026	annual	not stated in sources read
Renewable final energy	2020	Oct 2026	annual	not stated in sources read
Safe water and sanitation	2024	Oct 2026	annual	not stated in sources read
Freshwater withdrawals	2022	Oct 2026	annual	not stated in sources read
Forest area	2023	Oct 2026	annual	not stated in sources read
Climate record	2024	May 2025	annual	not stated in sources read

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Climate forcing	THIN	numeric values from the WMO report
Energy	PARTIAL	power capacity by technology; North Africa
Health	PARTIAL	outbreak counts; care capacity
Water	PARTIAL	drought extent and basin-level use
Food	PARTIAL	import shares of food and fertiliser
Biodiversity	PARTIAL	habitat condition
Finance	THIN	disaster losses and insured share
Digital	THIN	dependency mapping

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Published by the World Bank in World Development Indicators for the Sub-Saharan Africa group. Annual, observation years to 2024, data updated 8 October 2026. Role: binds ENE-002 and the access-pace figures.

EVD-AU-001

Access to electricity¹⁷

Published by the World Bank in World Development Indicators, carrying the FAO series for the Sub-Saharan Africa group. Annual, observation years to 2024. Role: binds FOO-005 and the derived count of people.

EVD-AU-002

Prevalence of undernourishment¹⁶

Table A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-AU-001	EVD-AU-002
Completeness	Sub-Saharan Africa group only; 2025 value null	Sub-Saharan Africa group only; 2025 value null
Timeliness	about 22 months after the year	about 22 months after the year
Revision	not stated in sources read	not stated in sources read
Method transparency	indicator definition on the source page	indicator definition on the source page
External validation	not stated in sources read	not stated in sources read

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

WMO State of the Climate in Africa² (numeric values)
UN DESA population database⁴² (AU-wide totals)
Africa CDC outbreak records³ (counts)
IEA and IRENA capacity statistics (power by technology)

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.8Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.9The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.10Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
AU	African Union
AUDA-NEPAD	African Union Development Agency
CAADP	Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme
CBD	Convention on Biological Diversity
FAO	Food and Agriculture Organization
IEA	International Energy Agency
ILO	International Labour Organization
PIDA	Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa
SDG	Sustainable Development Goal
UN DESA	United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
UNDRR	United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
UNFCCC	United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WMO	World Meteorological Organization

A.10Technical annex

Table A.12Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the baseline indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-AU-CLI-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	Q1 2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	Q2 2027
A.7	Member state notes	atlas cards for every member state	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition, people with electricity, Sub-Saharan Africa

Construct: share of the population with access to electricity
Unit: percent of population
Scope: World Bank Sub-Saharan Africa group
Source: World Bank indicator EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS¹⁷
Revision: revised with each World Development Indicators update
Known limits: the 2025 value is null at close; the group excludes North Africa

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
42United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
3Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (ed.), Mpox updates, including the communiqué dated 22 January 2026 on lifting the Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (title read; full text not read). Africa CDC, Addis Ababa, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

African Union 2026
Annex B

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

10 min read0 figures7 tables30 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
Population, Sub-Saharan Africa	1.32	billion	2025	Reported	⁴
Population growth	2.4	%	2025	Reported	⁵
Aged under 15	40.4	%	2025	Reported	⁶
Aged 65 or over	3.2	%	2025	Reported	⁷
Urban population	44.7	%	2025	Reported	⁸
Life expectancy at birth	62.8	years	2024	Reported	⁹
Under-5 mortality	71.2	per 1,000	2024	Reported	¹⁰
GDP, current prices	2.21	USD trillion	2025	Reported	¹¹
GDP per person, current prices	1,673	USD	2025	Reported	¹²
GDP growth	4.1	%	2025	Reported	¹³
Agriculture share of GDP	18.0	%	2025	Reported	¹⁴
Employment in agriculture	49.8	%	2024	Reported	¹⁵
Prevalence of undernourishment	22.3	%	2024	Reported	¹⁶
People with electricity	55.1	%	2024	Reported	¹⁷
People with clean cooking	22.9	%	2024	Reported	¹⁸
Renewable electricity output	32.6	%	2021	Reported	¹⁹
Renewables in final energy	70.3	%	2020	Reported	²⁰
CO2 per person, excluding land use	0.70	t	2024	Reported	²¹
Safely managed drinking water	32.4	%	2024	Reported	²²
Safely managed sanitation	25.9	%	2024	Reported	²³
Freshwater withdrawals	3.4	% of internal resources	2022	Reported	²⁴
Protected land	17.3	%	2025	Reported	²⁵
Protected territorial waters	7.1	%	2025	Reported	²⁶
Forest area	25.7	% of land	2023	Reported	²⁷

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

NOTES

All values are for the World Bank Sub-Saharan Africa group, which does not cover all 55 member states, and observation years differ by indicator. Shown as empty states, by design, because no primary figure was read at evidence close: AU-wide population and economic totals (source: UN DESA population database and national statistics; blocker: not read, and the World Bank group is a subset); North African series (source: the same World Bank indicators for the remaining states; blocker: not read); temperature and sea-level values from the WMO report (source: the report text; blocker: only the summary page was read, and it gave no numbers); disaster losses and affected people (source: UNDRR and national loss databases; blocker: not read); power capacity by technology (source: IRENA capacity statistics; blocker: the publication page was not accessible); cholera and mpox counts (source: Africa CDC and WHO; blocker: the pages read held no figures); insured share of losses (source: insurer and AU risk-pool reports; blocker: not read); drought extent and food and fertiliser import shares (source: FAO and national data; blocker: not read); data-centre electricity demand (source: IEA; blocker: not read). A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

Table B.3National source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
Member states¹	continental body	AU	2026	as changed	profile
State of the Climate in Africa²	UN agency	Africa	2024	annual	CLI
Outbreak communiqué³	continental agency	Africa	2026	as issued	HLT
Population series⁴⁵⁶⁷⁸	multilateral statistics	Sub-Saharan Africa	2025	annual	profile
Health series⁹¹⁰	multilateral statistics	Sub-Saharan Africa	2024	annual	HLT
Economic series¹¹¹²¹³¹⁴	multilateral statistics	Sub-Saharan Africa	2025	annual	FIN
Food and farming¹⁵¹⁶	multilateral statistics	Sub-Saharan Africa	2024 to 2025	annual	FOO
Energy and emissions¹⁷¹⁸¹⁹²⁰²¹	multilateral statistics	Sub-Saharan Africa	2020 to 2024	annual	ENE · CLI
Water and sanitation²²²³²⁴	multilateral statistics	Sub-Saharan Africa	2022 to 2024	annual	WAT
Protected areas and forest²⁵²⁶²⁷	multilateral statistics	Sub-Saharan Africa	2023 to 2025	annual	BIO

B.3Regional reading, African Union by member state

Map plates for every member state follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Table B.4Regional reading, African Union by member state
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
Northern member states	heat, water scarcity	water, food, health	IPCC assessment³⁸; no series read
Western member states	drought, floods, heat	food, water, health	IPCC assessment³⁸; no series read
Central member states	floods, forest loss	biodiversity, water, health	forest trend²⁷; IPBES³⁹
Eastern member states	drought and flood swings, heat	food, water, health	IPCC assessment³⁸; undernourishment¹⁶
Southern member states	drought, storms and cyclones	food, power, water	IPCC assessment³⁸; no series read
The Union as a whole	cross-border compound events	all systems	warmest decade²; access series¹⁷²²

B.4Atlas card, Sub-Saharan Africa at baseline

continental group
World Bank Sub-Saharan Africa
services and food
data scope

Systems in view: water, energy, food, health
Defining indicators: electricity 55.1%¹⁷; undernourishment 22.3%¹⁶
Couplings: ENE → HLT; CLI → FOO; WAT → HLT
Capability evidence: Africa CDC communiqués and AU instruments³³⁰
Gaps: AU-wide totals; North Africa; losses; capacity
Agenda items: A-01 · A-02 · A-03

In 2024, 55.1% of people had electricity and 22.9% had clean cooking [17] [18].

ENERGY

Fewer than six in ten have power

The prevalence of undernourishment was 22.3% in 2024, up from 19.3% in 2018 [16].

FOOD

One in five is undernourished

In 2024, 32.4% of people used safely managed drinking water and 25.9% safely managed sanitation [22] [23].

WATER

A third use safely managed water

B.5African Union system card

The card through which the African Union appears in the Africa regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Table B.5African Union system card
System	Baseline state	Coupling to watch	Coverage
Water	safely managed water 32.4%	drought into farming and health	PARTIAL
Energy	electricity 55.1%; clean cooking 22.9%	access gaps into health	PARTIAL
Food	undernourishment 22.3%	price and drought shocks	PARTIAL
Health	under-5 mortality 71.2 per 1,000	outbreak load	PARTIAL
Biodiversity	protected land 17.3%	forest loss and land use	PARTIAL

Context

Archetype: union of 55 member states with shared basins, grids and disease pathways
Population: 1.32 billion, Sub-Saharan Africa group, 2025⁴
Economy: GDP USD 2.21 trillion, current prices, 2025¹¹
Hazard: warmest decade on record for Africa²

African Union’s card sits beside its neighbours’; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.

AFRICA REGIONAL EDITION

One regional system

African Union evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.

GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES

Same findings, same IDs

In the global edition the African Union is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

GLOBAL FLAGSHIP

Peers, not ranks

B.6Licences

Table B.6Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.7This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	24 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: NQ-AU-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

4World Bank (ed.), “Population, total, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5World Bank (ed.), “Population growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.GROW. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 0-14 (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
7World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 65 and above (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8World Bank (ed.), “Urban population (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9World Bank (ed.), “Life expectancy at birth, total (years), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, series compiled by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11World Bank (ed.), “GDP (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12World Bank (ed.), “GDP per capita (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13World Bank (ed.), “GDP growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14World Bank (ed.), “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
19World Bank (ed.), “Renewable electricity output (% of total electricity output), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2021, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
20World Bank (ed.), “Renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy consumption), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2020, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
21World Bank (ed.), “Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions excluding LULUCF per capita, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
24World Bank (ed.), “Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2022, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
25World Bank (ed.), “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
26World Bank (ed.), “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
27World Bank (ed.), “Forest area (% of land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
1African Union Commission (ed.), Member States of the African Union. African Union, Addis Ababa, page states 55 member states, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (ed.), Mpox updates, including the communiqué dated 22 January 2026 on lifting the Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (title read; full text not read). Africa CDC, Addis Ababa, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
38C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 9. Cambridge University Press, 2022.back
39E. Archer, L. Dziba, K. J. Mulongoy et al. (eds.), The Regional Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for Africa. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2018.back
30African Union Commission (ed.), African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022 to 2032). African Union, Addis Ababa, 2022.back

African Union 2026
Annex C

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

13 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

C.151 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1African Union Commission (ed.), Member States of the African Union. African Union, Addis Ababa, page states 55 member states, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
3Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (ed.), Mpox updates, including the communiqué dated 22 January 2026 on lifting the Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (title read; full text not read). Africa CDC, Addis Ababa, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
4World Bank (ed.), “Population, total, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
5World Bank (ed.), “Population growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.GROW. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
6World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 0-14 (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
7World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 65 and above (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
8World Bank (ed.), “Urban population (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6
9World Bank (ed.), “Life expectancy at birth, total (years), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
10World Bank (ed.), “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, series compiled by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
11World Bank (ed.), “GDP (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
12World Bank (ed.), “GDP per capita (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
13World Bank (ed.), “GDP growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
14World Bank (ed.), “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
19World Bank (ed.), “Renewable electricity output (% of total electricity output), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2021, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
20World Bank (ed.), “Renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy consumption), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2020, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
21World Bank (ed.), “Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions excluding LULUCF per capita, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
24World Bank (ed.), “Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2022, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
25World Bank (ed.), “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
26World Bank (ed.), “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
27World Bank (ed.), “Forest area (% of land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
28African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want, framework document. African Union, Addis Ababa, 2015. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
29African Union (ed.), Constitutive Act of the African Union. African Union, Lome, 2000. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
30African Union Commission (ed.), African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022 to 2032). African Union, Addis Ababa, 2022. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
31African Union Commission (ed.), Programme of Action for the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 in Africa. African Union, Addis Ababa. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
32African Union (ed.), Agreement Establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area. African Union, Kigali, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
33African Union (ed.), Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods. African Union, Malabo, 2014. Cited in chapter 6
34African Union (ed.), Kampala CAADP Declaration, Extraordinary Summit on the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme. African Union, Kampala, January 2025. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
35African Union Commission and AUDA-NEPAD (eds.), Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) Priority Action Plan 2021 to 2030. African Union, Addis Ababa. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
36Heads of State and Government (eds.), Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit declaration. Dar es Salaam, January 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
37International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022, World Energy Outlook special report. IEA, Paris, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
38C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 9. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
39E. Archer, L. Dziba, K. J. Mulongoy et al. (eds.), The Regional Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for Africa. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2018. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
40UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2022: Our World at Risk. UNDRR, Geneva, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
41Africa Climate Summit (ed.), Nairobi Declaration. Africa Climate Summit, Nairobi, September 2023. Cited in chapter 4
42United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Cited in chapter 6
43H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
44UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
45Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
46UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
47P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
48J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
50S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
51United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution A/RES/70/1. United Nations, New York, 2015. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: African Union Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline	Q1 2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-COUNTRY-AU-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
AU	NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias: NR-NAT-AU-2026-BL
Collection: None
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
AU edition Reports African Union 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; AU is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

S.3Headline finding

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

What it is not

What comes next

Notes

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

In this part

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

Transmission paths

1.4Reinforcing loops

Notes

2.1Headline finding

Implication

What would move it

2.2Development

2.3Energy

2.4Food

2.5Water

2.6Health

2.7Finance

2.8Biodiversity

2.9Climate forcing

2.10Systemic

Notes

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

People using safely managed drinking water

People with access to electricity

Prevalence of undernourishment

Under-5 mortality, per 1,000 live births

Land in terrestrial protected areas

Employment in agriculture

3.2Domain posture

3.3Sector screens

Notes

4.1Risk objects

Drought across several member states in one season

Household and clinic power and cooking gaps persist

Outbreaks cross borders faster than response

Uninsured disaster losses reach public budgets

4.2Capability ladder

Notes

5.1Assumptions

5.2The cascade, step by step

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

Notes

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

6.2Three lenses

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

Standards drafts used in this edition

Standards calendar to watch

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

Publication dispositions

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Changed since 2024

To watch in 2027

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

Review protocol

Where the evidence agrees

Where it is unsettled