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African Union 2026

African Union

The African Union enters 2027 with a growing and young population, an economy that grew 4.1% in 2025 on the World Bank Sub-Saharan Africa measure, and large gaps in the services that tie water, energy, food and health together. In 2024, 55.1% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa had electricity, 22.9% had clean cooking, 32.4% had safely managed drinking water and 25.9% had safely managed sanitation.

Read the editionHazard exposure
Matokeo ya uchunguzi
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Vyanzo
51
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

African Union in six readings.

Six readings that frame the African Union baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 1.32billionpeople, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2025 [4]
  • 40.4%aged under 15, 2025 [6]
  • 3.2%aged 65 or over, 2025 [7]
  • 44.7%urban population, 2025 [8]
  • 2.21USD trillionGDP, current prices, 2025 [11]
  • 55member statesin the Union at evidence close [1]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATMaji1 finding

    32.4% People using safely managed drinking water, 2024. Reported

    32.4% safely managed drinking water; 25.9% safely managed sanitation (2024).

  2. ENENishati3 findings

    55.1% People with access to electricity, 2024. Reported

    55.1% with electricity; 22.9% with clean cooking (2024).

  3. INFMiundombinunot assessed

    Infrastructure programme is set out in PIDA; asset condition is not assessed here.

  4. FOOChakula2 findings

    22.3% Prevalence of undernourishment, 2024. Reported

    22.3% undernourished; 49.8% of employment in agriculture.

  5. HLTAfya1 finding

    71.2 per 1,000 Under-5 mortality, per 1,000 live births, 2024. Reported

    Under-5 mortality 71.2 per 1,000; life expectancy 62.8 years (2024).

  6. BIOBioanuwai1 finding

    17.3% Land in terrestrial protected areas, 2025. Reported

    Protected land 17.3% and sea 7.1% (2025); forest 25.7% of land (2023).

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 1, Development 1, Finance 1, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-AU-CLI-001

    Drought across several member states in one season

    InferredEQL 3

    Driver
    failed rains and heat in several regions at once
    Exposure
    farming households and rain-fed mifumo; 49.8% of employment [15]
    Vulnerability
    undernourishment 22.3% [16]
    Capacity
    AU climate strategy [30]; early warning not assessed here
    Cascade
    CLI → FOO, WAT, HLT
    Horizon
    seasonal

    Water systemsAngahewa na hali ya hewa

  • RSK-AU-ENE-002

    Household and clinic power and cooking gaps persist

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    slow pace of access gains
    Exposure
    households without electricity or clean cooking
    Vulnerability
    55.1% with electricity; 22.9% with clean cooking [17] [18]
    Capacity
    Mission 300 declaration [36]
    Cascade
    ENE → HLT, WAT, FOO
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-AU-HLT-003

    Outbreaks cross borders faster than response

    InferredEQL 3

    Driver
    cholera, mpox and other pathogens
    Exposure
    dense settlements and mobile populations
    Vulnerability
    safely managed water 32.4%; sanitation 25.9% [22] [23]
    Capacity
    Africa CDC communiqués in operation [3]
    Cascade
    WAT → HLT → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    seasonal

    No domain reading

  • RSK-AU-FIN-004

    Uninsured disaster losses reach public budgets

    Expert inputEQL 2

    Driver
    floods, drought, storms and cyclones
    Exposure
    households and public infrastructure
    Vulnerability
    loss and insured-share data not read in this edition
    Capacity
    national schemes; not assessed
    Cascade
    CLI → FIN → public budgets
    Horizon
    annual

    Water systemsAngahewa na hali ya hewa

Scenario · SCN-AU-CLI-01

Compound drought, price and outbreak year

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

1 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → FOOdrought and heat cut crop and livestock output
  2. 2FOO → HLTprices rise and undernourishment grows
  3. 3CLI → WATlow flows cut safe water supply
  4. 4WAT → HLTunsafe water and weak sanitation raise outbreak risk
  5. 5ENE → HLTpower and cooking gaps limit clinic and household response
  6. 6HLT → FINpublic budgets absorb relief and response costs

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The African Union matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core mifumo. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
FromWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongModerateStrong
ENEModerate·StrongStrongModerate
FOOModerateWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakModerate·Weak
BIOStrongModerateStrongModerate·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → FOOdrought and heat cut crop and livestock outputInferred
  2. CLI → WAT → HLTlow flows and heat reduce safe water and raise disease riskInferred
  3. ENE → HLTno power or clean fuel raises household health and clinic riskInferred
  4. FOO → HLTprice and income shocks raise undernourishmentReported
  5. BIO → WAT, FOOforest loss changes water regulation and land useInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of African Union.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of African Union
IDEditionSector or systemHaliStatement
DEV-001African UnionDEV Maendeleo ReportedSub-Saharan Africa had 1.32 billion people in 2025, growing 2.4% a year, and 40.4% of them were under 15.
ENE-002African UnionENE Nishati ReportedIn 2024, 55.1% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa had electricity, up from 46.4% in 2018; about 579 million had none (derived).
ENE-003African UnionENE Nishati ReportedOnly 22.9% of people had access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking in 2024; about 994 million did not (derived).
ENE-004African UnionENE Nishati ReportedRenewables supplied 32.6% of electricity output in 2021, the latest year published, and 70.3% of final energy consumption in 2020.
FOO-005African UnionFOO Chakula ReportedThe prevalence of undernourishment was 22.3% in 2024, up from 19.3% in 2018; about 288 million people (derived).
FOO-006African UnionFOO Chakula ReportedAgriculture employed 49.8% of workers in 2024 and produced 18.0% of GDP, so farm shocks reach half the labour force.
WAT-007African UnionWAT Maji ReportedIn 2024, 32.4% of people used safely managed drinking water and 25.9% used safely managed sanitation; withdrawals were 3.4% of internal resources in 2022 on average.
HLT-008African UnionHLT Afya ReportedUnder-5 mortality fell from 79.0 to 71.2 per 1,000 live births between 2018 and 2024, and life expectancy reached 62.8 years.
FIN-009African UnionFIN Fedha ReportedGDP was USD 2.21 trillion in 2025 and grew 4.1%, with GDP per person of USD 1,673 in current terms.
BIO-010African UnionBIO Bioanuwai ReportedProtected areas covered 17.3% of land and 7.1% of territorial waters in 2025, and forest fell from 27.1% to 25.7% of land between 2015 and 2023.
CLI-011African UnionCLI Climate forcing ReportedWMO reported 2024 as one of the warmest years on record for Africa, and the warmest decade; CO2 emissions were 0.70 tonnes per person in 2024.
SYS-012African UnionSYS Systemic Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought year across several member states, met by high food prices and a disease outbreak.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for African Union.

The desks’ editions for African Union
DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceAfrican Union 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: African Union 2026In preparation
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: African Union 2026In preparation
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: African Union 2026In preparation

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Evidence close30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Masahihishoafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-AU-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Corrections log

Versions and corrections
VersionDateStateChangeNotice
NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,none
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
GapShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/au/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
RipotiChangia

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Ripoti is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Mifumo Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

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