GCRI · Reports
Global systems series
Global systems reports try to describe risks that no single discipline owns: climate, food, finance, health and technology acting on each other. Synthesis at that scale is where small weaknesses in the evidence base become large ones, because the report is read as a summary of everything known. This page sets out how global syntheses are built and reviewed, where their evidence is thin or skewed, and how their statements travel into decisions.
Global systems series in seven parts.
- 01The questionGlobal systems series: how the risk develops
- 02In the five domainsThe global series reads the five domains together
- 03IndicatorsWhat is measured, and how well
- 04SourcesWhere the evidence comes from
- 05DecisionsWho decides, and what the evidence serves
- 06Core questionsWhat the series asks
- 07ScopeWhat the series covers
Global systems series: how the risk develops.
Interdependent global system risks. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Uneven evidence base
Published literature is concentrated in some regions, languages and disciplines. A synthesis that assesses only what is indexed in English inherits those gaps and can present an absence of evidence as an absence of risk.
Aggregation hides disagreement
Combining findings across fields with different methods and definitions can produce a statement that no single study supports. Calibrated language and traceable accounts keep the level of agreement visible instead of averaging it away.
Statements travel without caveats
A headline from a summary is quoted in briefings, media and other reports, often without its confidence qualifier or its scope. Each repetition moves the statement further from the evidence behind it.
Errors propagate by citation
A flawed or retracted source cited in a global synthesis can be carried into national plans and sector studies that cite the synthesis rather than the source, so a correction upstream may not reach users downstream.
Hazards and exposure worldwide.
Population density, flood water and daytime surface heat across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE FIRMS
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards and exposure, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (11 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
The global series reads the five domains together.
Editions follow GRADE-style certainty reporting where evidence is synthesised, and carry identifiers under NS-1 of the proposed Nexus Standards. No edition ranks countries.
- Evidence for the next edition.
- Reviewer volunteers.
Series production desk.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Series production desk
Global systems series · Annual synthesis · Edition 5
Editions in production
| Annual synthesis | Global | Data check | 89 | W38 |
| Country profile 7 | Country | Peer review | 98 | W18 |
| Water outlook | Sectoral | Drafting | 47 | W16 |
| Methods note 4 | Methods | Released | 100 | done |
Data check, annual synthesis
Edition pipeline
- Outlineboard
- Draftauthors
- Data checkevery value
- Peer reviewtwo rounds
- Editorialdecision
- ReleaseDOI
- Correctionsversioned
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assessed literature by region of author affiliation | percent of cited works by region | per report | Bibliographic metadata matched to institution registry | ESTIMATED |
| Assessed literature by language of publication | percent of cited works by language | per report | Reference list metadata | REPORTED |
| Key statements carrying calibrated confidence or likelihood | percent of summary statements | per report | Editorial audit of the summary | REPORTED |
| Review comments received and answered | count received; percent with recorded response | per review round | Review comment log | Published statistics |
| Literature cut-off to publication interval | months | per report | Report front matter | DECLARED |
| Cited works with a persistent identifier | percent of references | per version | Reference metadata | OBSERVED |
| Cited works later retracted or flagged | count per report | quarterly | Retraction records matched to references | OBSERVED |
Model global systems series as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Global and systemic risk: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Dam failure
- Financial contagion
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
- Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)
- Currency crisis (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
- Global and systemic risk
- Compound and cascading hazard standards Mechanism
- Financial stability and prudential risk Mechanism
- Supply chain and trade risk Cascade
- Future generations and long-term risk Common driver
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-H120Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems (NHS-1 sys.fragility)NRS-C6Systemic and cascading riskNRS-H61Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)NRS-H62Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)NRS-H94Hazard family: Systemic cyber events (NHS-1 cyber.systemic-cyber)NRS-H60Hazard family: Supply-chain and flow disruption (NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)
Observation
- INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
- World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
- IMF data services (WEO, IFS, FSI via SDMX) (listed for reference)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
- Macroeconomic Dashboard
Example geography
- Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| IPCC report archive and review records | Assessment reports, summaries for policymakers, expert and government review comments with author responses | Free to read, IPCC copyright, reuse terms per IPCC |
| IPBES assessment archive | Global and regional biodiversity assessments, summaries and review documentation | Free to read, reuse terms per IPBES |
| UNDRR Global Assessment Report archive | Global assessments of disaster and systemic risk | Free to read, United Nations terms |
| OpenAlex | Works, authors, institutions, languages and citation links across disciplines | CC0 |
| Crossref metadata | DOIs, references, funding and update notices for scholarly works | Open metadata, no reuse restrictions |
| Retraction Watch Database via Crossref | Retractions, expressions of concern and corrections with reasons | Openly available through Crossref, attribution requested |
How global systems series is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
System model
The couplings between the systems in global systems series: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Reports prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Ministries of foreign affairs, finance and environment | Which global risks warrant national attention, joint action or negotiation positions | Summary statements with calibrated confidence, the scope of each and its evidence gaps |
| Intergovernmental assessment bodies and their working groups | Where a later assessment should focus or where the literature is too thin to assess | Coverage profiles by region, language and discipline |
| Research funders | Which gaps in the evidence base justify new calls or data collection | Mapped gaps where confidence is low because evidence is limited rather than because it disagrees |
| Report editors and review editors | Whether every comment has been answered and every key statement can be traced | Comment logs, traceable accounts and reference integrity checks |
Outputs this topic produces
- Traceable accounts linking each summary statement to its assessed sources and confidence
- Coverage profiles of the evidence by region, language and discipline
- Review comment logs with responses, published after approval
- Versioned reports with correction notices linked to dependent statements
What the series asks.
Global risks rarely respect the boundaries of disciplines or ministries. A heatwave strains power grids, cuts crop yields, raises mortality and moves commodity prices at once. Studying such risks one sector at a time misses the connections through which they amplify. The series exists to describe those connections with evidence and to say plainly where knowledge runs out.
- Which global systems are most tightly coupled, and through which flows of goods, energy, data, money or people?
- Where could a disruption in one system spread to others, and what buffers slow or stop it?
- Which slow-moving trends, such as climate change, demographic shifts or technology adoption, change the structure of those couplings?
- What do we not know, and how would a reader recognise that a finding has become outdated?
What the series covers.
Three series share the global view, each with a different time horizon.
Global Systems Risk and Resilience
Annual analysis of interdependent global system risks and the resilience of the systems that carry them.
Strategic Systems
Systems whose failure would have strategic consequences, such as critical infrastructure, digital networks and supply chains.
Foresight Outlook
Long-horizon outlooks and horizon scans, labelled as foresight and never as prediction.
Research on systemic risk has shown that tightly coupled systems with little slack can turn a local failure into a widespread one, and that the same efficiency that lowers costs in normal times can remove the buffers needed in a crisis. The series looks for these patterns: shared dependencies, concentration, synchronised shocks and feedback loops. It also looks for the opposite, the redundancy, diversity and institutional capacity that let systems absorb shocks and recover.
How editions are built, and their limits.
- 01
Systems mapping
Dependency maps and network analysis identify couplings. They depend on data that are often incomplete for private and informal flows.
- 02
Statistical evidence
Trend and correlation analysis, built on probability and statistics, describes what has happened. Past relationships may not hold under new conditions.
- 03
Models and scenarios
Coupled models and scenarios explore what could happen. Each carries stated assumptions and uncertainty assessed with uncertainty quantification and model validation.
- 04
Expert judgement
Structured elicitation fills gaps where data are absent. It is labelled as expert judgement and its panel and process are described.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Uncertainty quantification and model validationCalibrated language in assessments · Certainty of evidence ratingsApplied here
- 02Probability and statisticsMeta-analysis with heterogeneity stated · Small-study and publication biasApplied here
- 03Data engineering, interoperability and stewardshipStructured publishing in JATS XML · Persistent identifiers across the recordApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
What is the difference between confidence and likelihood?
Why does a global synthesis need review by governments?
What happens when a cited source is retracted?
Does Reports rank global risks?
Does the series rank global risks?
How is foresight distinguished from forecasting?
Who reviews a global systems edition?
How often are editions released?
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- EmailGateway GW-GCRISend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGCRISee every way to contributeThe contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
Bring a method, a dataset or a question.
Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
Legal documents.
Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.