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GCRI · مدیریت ریسک سامانه‌ای

Reviewed models and scenarios

Model descriptions for ریسک سامانه‌ای Management are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.

01فضای کار

The workspace for reviewed models and scenarios.

Pipeline

Reviewed models and scenarios · Workspace WS-78 · Example interface, not a record

One stage waitingGCRI · مدیریت ریسک سامانه‌ای

Stages

  1. Ingest3 منبع
  2. اعتبارسنجیschema · licence
  3. Transformversioned
  4. مدلتحلیل تصمیم
  5. آزمونheld-out
  6. Releasewith limits

مصنوعات

فهرست ریسکv6.1برای بررسیآمارهای منتشرشده
KRI feedsv6.5بازمشاهده‌شده
Control test resultsv6.2بازASSESSED
Incident and loss datav1.1برای بررسیگزارش‌شده

Compute quota

share used vs alert level

CPU hours45 used of 80 used limitStorage33 used of 90 used limitGPU hours15 used of 70 used limit
Pipeline.رابط تصویری؛ داده‌های زنده نیست.

Systemic Risk Management · Pipeline. Pipeline: example names and illustrative values, not a record.

02What is shown

Released, referenced and rights-cleared.

  • Time and space reference for every view.
  • Sources and licence.
  • Uncertainty and known limits.
  • Version and date of release.
03Model classes

The kinds of model risk management work relies on.

Model classOpen examplesQuestion it answersاعتبارسنجی
Bow-tie analysisStandard practice in IEC 31010Causes, consequences and barriersBarrier performance data
Fault and event treesIEC 31010 techniquesProbabilities of system failure pathsComponent data, expert review
Monte Carlo risk aggregationOpen simulation librariesCombined loss distributionsBack-testing against losses
Interdependency modelsNetwork and input-output modelsCascades across organisationsReconstruction of past events
04فرایند

نحوهٔ اجرای فرایند.

Process explorer · Process

Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

10 steps4 مرحله

فرایند

Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.

  1. 01 Drivers

    1. 01مخاطرهDataset · Board risk committeeThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
    2. 02مواجههDataset · Board risk committeeThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
    3. 03حساسیتDataset · Board risk committeeThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
    4. 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · Board risk committeeThe ability of سامانه‌ها, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.
  2. 02 Assessment

    1. 05Risk from responsesComponent · Board risk committeeRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
    2. 06آسیب‌پذیریComponent · Board risk committeeThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
    3. 07ریسکModel · ریسک سامانه‌ای ManagementRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.
  3. 03 Response

    1. 08Risk management and responseStep · Board risk committeeRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
    2. 09ریسک باقیماندهRecord · Board risk committeeThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.
  4. 04 Decision

    1. 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · Board risk committeeThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.

Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.

05وضعیت

Releases appear as they are reviewed.

Analysis runs in ⁨Foundry⁩; reviewed releases are listed here.

06منابع

Where this page’s references lead.

نهادها و اسنادی که این صفحه بر پایهٔ آن‌ها خوانده می‌شود. وضعیت و ویراست‌ها تغییر می‌کنند؛ هر پیوند به نهاد صادرکننده می‌رود.

07پرسش‌ها

پرسش و پاسخ.

Can I request a map or model?
نامه بنویسید به فرم تماس with what you need and why.
گزارش‌هامشارکت

شواهد را از همین صفحه ارسال کنید.

گزارش‌ها is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRIمدیریت ریسک سامانه‌ایسناریو و آزمون تنشروش‌ها و فنیسبد و آمادگی
مدیریت ریسک سامانه‌ای

یک روش، یک مجموعه‌داده یا یک پرسش بیاورید.

اطلاعات و درخواست‌ها امروز باز است. هر درخواست یک شمارهٔ پیگیری می‌گیرد و گام بعدی را مشخص می‌کند؛ درخواست‌های عضویت، پرداخت‌ها، تخصیص رایانش و ثبت‌نام‌ها تنها زمانی باز می‌شوند که تیم، شرایط و ظرفیت داوری آن‌ها فراهم باشد.