The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Model descriptions for Systemic Risk Management are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.
Reviewed models and scenarios · Workspace WS-78
| Risk register | v6.1 | To check | OFFICIAL |
| KRI feeds | v6.5 | Open | OBSERVED |
| Control test results | v6.2 | Open | ASSESSED |
| Incident and loss data | v1.1 | To check | REPORTED |
share used vs alert level
Systemic Risk Management · PipelinePipeline, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
Systemic Risk Management reviewed models are published descriptions of the models used in the risk management and systemic risk field, with their assumptions, data, validation and limits, built on methods such as decision analysis under uncertainty as well as scenario design and stress testing. They describe models; they are not live simulations, and no output on them is a finding.
Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.
For reviewed models and scenarios, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on daytime surface heat, true-colour imagery and rain, framed on Asia; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure, for this page
Keyboard, with the map focused
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Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
For reviewed models and scenarios, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on daytime surface heat, true-colour imagery and rain, framed on Asia; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
| Model class | Open examples | Question it answers | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bow-tie analysis | Standard practice in IEC 31010 | Causes, consequences and barriers | Barrier performance data |
| Fault and event trees | IEC 31010 techniques | Probabilities of system failure paths | Component data, expert review |
| Monte Carlo risk aggregation | Open simulation libraries | Combined loss distributions | Back-testing against losses |
| Interdependency models | Network and input-output models | Cascades across organisations | Reconstruction of past events |
Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Model validation | Comparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use. |
| Model card | A short document describing a model's intended use, training data, performance and limits. |
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Surrogate model | A fast statistical model trained to approximate a slow simulation or experiment. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.