GCRI · 系统性风险管理
方法与不确定性
The methods 系统性风险 Management relies on: their equations and assumptions, the data they need, how they are validated and the limits of what they can show.
Methods and uncertainty in five parts.
使用中的方法。
Each method, its role in this field and how it is checked.
- 决策分析Role hereDecision analysis structures choices under uncertainty: it makes the options, objectives, uncertainties and trade-offs explicit so that a decision can be examined and defended.Checks appliedSensitivity to weights; Value of information; Requisite model review
- Scenario stressRole hereScenario design and stress testing are the method this platform stewards for the network.Checks appliedPlausibility review; Severity benchmarking; Model coverage
- Probability statisticsRole hereProbability and statistics give risk assessment its estimates of frequency, severity and their uncertainty.Checks appliedGoodness of fit; Back-testing; Prior sensitivity
- 网络科学Role hereNetwork science represents systems as nodes and links so that the structure of dependence can be measured.Checks appliedMissing link sensitivity; Validation against past events; Alternative failure rules
- 韧性工程Role hereReliability and resilience engineering supply the design methods that keep systems working through failure: redundancy, diversity, graceful degradation and recovery planning.Checks appliedCommon-cause analysis; Exercise verification; Failure mode review
- 不确定性量化Role hereUncertainty quantification states how much a risk estimate could differ from reality and why.Checks appliedGlobal sensitivity analysis; Calibration of intervals; Structural uncertainty
流程如何运行。
Process explorer · Process
Methods and uncertainty: Source to evidence record
10 steps·4 个阶段·2 道关口
流程
Methods and uncertainty: Source to evidence record
A source is registered and assessed, its record labelled and classified, and a Digital Evidence Passport carries provenance; a correction reaches every dependent record.
01 受理
- 01识别来源来源 · 来源管理方发现不等于纳入。来源识别记录来源类别、管理方、机构角色和管辖范围。
- 03登记来源步骤登记使已发现的来源成为证据生命周期中受治理的参与方。它不意味着任何背书或认证。
02 评估
- 04管辖范围与权利分类关口权利分类识别许可、同意、保密和再利用限制。其结果决定访问和流转路径。
- 05证据质量评估步骤质量评估决定一条记录是否适合既定用途。质量是多维度的，绝不是单一分数。
- 06证据标签步骤每项发现都带有九种证据标签之一。缺失数据显示为缺失，绝不显示为零。
03 记录
04 使用与更正
- 02更正传达到依赖记录步骤 · NXS-GRX（规范数据、来源追溯与风险）来源更正会传递到依赖它的切片和产品，而不改写旧结果。
- 10公开安全审查关口可公开审查决定一条记录能否公开共享。这是一个独立阶段，并非验证。
数据协议：证据生命周期 · Data protocols: core data objects and evidence records · The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX)Designed programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation. The data-protocol pages describe a design, not a running system.
Where uncertainty in risk management analysis comes from, and how it is shown.
| 来源 | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Likelihood estimates | Often expert judgement on rare events | Calibrated language and the basis of each estimate |
| Consequence estimates | Depend on cascade assumptions | Ranges with dependency assumptions stated |
| Risk matrices | Can rank risks inconsistently | Matrices supplemented with distributions where data allow |
| Velocity and onset | Rarely estimated, yet decisive for response | Explicit onset and duration fields |
Heat maps are used as communication devices, not as analysis; the underlying estimates are published with them.
如何报告不确定性。
- 01
说明假设
每项分析都列出其假设及其所依赖的数据。
- 02
尽可能量化
在报告中心估计值的同时报告区间与置信度。
- 03
验证与比较
模型会对照观测数据进行核查，并在可能时与其他模型进行对照。
- 04
发布限制
分析无法说明的内容与其能够说明的内容并列陈述。
Where this page’s references lead.
阅读本页时所对照的机构和文件。状态和版本会变化；每个链接都指向发布机构。
问题与解答。
方法是开放的吗？
从本页贡献证据。
报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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