GCRI · اقلیم و مخاطره‌ها
روش‌ها و عدم قطعیت
The methods Climate and Hazards relies on: their equations and assumptions, the data they need, how they are validated and the limits of what they can show.
The workspace for methods and uncertainty.
Evidence grading
Methods and uncertainty · Review wave 2 · Example interface, not a record
Certainty by criterion
0 low to 100 high
Higher is more certain. Values are examples.
Review queue
- R-1Heat index days above thresholdsecond reviewer1 روز
- R-2Extreme rainfall, 1-in-100 depthsecond reviewer1 روز
- R-3Fire weather indexsecond reviewer1 روز
Climate and Hazards · Evidence grading. Evidence grading: example names and illustrative values, not a record.
The methods in use.
- 01علوم اقلیم و جوDetection and attribution of change · Extreme event attribution · Process-based model evaluationApplied here
- 02علوم زمین و ژئوفیزیکSeismic source characterisation · Ground deformation monitoring · Site condition mappingApplied here
- 03پیش‌بینی و تحلیل سری‌های زمانیEnsemble forecast interpretation · Seasonal outlook use · Forecast verificationApplied here
- 04نظریهٔ مقدار فرین و ریسک دمReturn level estimation · Non-stationary extremes · Regional frequency analysisApplied here
- 05زمین‌دیده‌وری و سنجش از دورFlood extent mapping · Vegetation and drought monitoring · Active fire and burned areaApplied here
- 06آمار مکانی و زمین‌آمارInterpolating station data · Merging satellite and gauge data · Spatial clustering of eventsApplied here
- 07محاسبات با عملکرد بالا، ابری و لبه‌ایRunning and storing ensembles · Analysis near the data · Edge processing for observationsApplied here
- 08آب‌شناسی و علوم آبCatchment flood modelling · Drought propagation · Flood frequency with changing climateApplied here
- 09علوم اقیانوس و ساحلExtreme sea-level analysis · Marine heatwave detection · Climate mode monitoringApplied here
- 10سامانه‌های فضایی و خدمات ماهواره‌ایObservation continuity planning · Satellite communications for warningsApplied here
Each method, its role in this field and how it is checked.
- علوم اقلیمRole hereClimate and atmospheric science is the core science this platform stewards for the network.Checks appliedMulti-dataset comparison; Calibrated confidence; Model fitness
- علوم زمینRole hereEarth and geophysical science explains the solid-Earth hazards: earthquakes, volcanic activity, tsunamis, landslides and subsidence.Checks appliedCatalogue completeness; Logic-tree sensitivity; Ground truth for deformation
- پیش‌بینیRole hereForecasting and time-series analysis supply the predictive side of hazard evidence: weather and flood forecasts, seasonal outlooks and statistical predictions.Checks appliedProper scoring rules; Reliability diagrams; Reference comparison
- مقادیر حدیRole hereExtreme value statistics estimate how large and how frequent rare events can be from limited records.Checks appliedGoodness of fit in the tail; Confidence intervals; Stationarity tests
- رصد زمینRole hereEarth observation and remote sensing measure hazards and their footprints from space and the air: rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation, fire, flood extent and ground deformation.Checks appliedAccuracy assessment; Cross-sensor consistency; Detection limits
- Spatial statisticsRole hereSpatial statistics and geostatistics interpolate, smooth and compare hazard data across space.Checks appliedCross-validation; Variogram review; Uncertainty maps
- ComputingRole hereHigh-performance, cloud and edge computing run the models and handle the data volumes that hazard science needs.Checks appliedBit-for-bit reproducibility; Format and metadata compliance; Resource accounting
- آب‌شناسیRole hereHydrology explains how rainfall becomes streamflow, floods, soil moisture and groundwater.Checks appliedSplit-sample testing; Rating curve review; Multi-model comparison
- Ocean scienceRole hereOcean and coastal science supplies the marine drivers of climate hazards: sea-level rise, storm surge, waves, marine heatwaves and the ocean’s role in cyclones and climate variability.Checks appliedVertical land motion; Climatology consistency; Projection traceability
- نظامهای فضاییRole hereSpace systems and satellite services provide the observation, communication and positioning that hazard monitoring and warning depend on.Checks appliedMission status verification; Single-mission dependency; Data latency
نحوهٔ اجرای فرایند.
Process explorer · Process
Methods and uncertainty: Source to evidence record
10 steps·4 مرحله·2 دروازه
فرایند
Methods and uncertainty: Source to evidence record
A source is registered and assessed, its record labelled and classified, and a Digital Evidence Passport carries provenance; a correction reaches every dependent record.
01 Intake
- 01Identify the sourceSource · The source stewardDiscovery is not ingestion. Source identification records the source class, steward, institutional role and jurisdiction.
- 03Register the sourceگامRegistration makes a discovered source a governed participant in the evidence lifecycle. It implies no endorsement or certification.
02 Assessment
- 04Jurisdiction and rights classificationدروازهRights classification identifies licence, consent, confidentiality and reuse limits. The result determines access and routing.
- 05Evidence quality assessmentگامQuality assessment decides whether a record is fit for a defined use. Quality is multidimensional and never a single score.
- 06Evidence labelگامEvery finding carries one of nine evidence labels. Missing data is shown as missing, never as zero.
03 Record
- 07Evidence classificationسابقهClassification gives records lifecycle states, such as source-verified, public-safe or restricted. States can coexist and set evidence use.
- 08Source release and identifierسابقه · NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)A source release records rights, temporal coverage and source lineage. A UNI is allocated through a catalogue and never typed by hand.
- 09Digital Evidence PassportسابقهThe passport records provenance, quality, rights, jurisdiction, permitted use and history, so evidence keeps its context when it travels.
04 Use and correction
- 02Correction reaches dependent recordsStep · NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)A source correction propagates to dependent cuts and products without rewriting old results.
- 10داوری امن برای عمومدروازهPublic-safe review decides whether a record can be shared publicly. It is a distinct stage and is not validation.
Data protocols: evidence lifecycle · Data protocols: core data objects and evidence records · The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX)Designed programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation. The data-protocol pages describe a design, not a running system.
Where uncertainty in hazard analysis comes from, and how it is shown.
| منبع | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Emission pathway | Dominates late-century change | Results by scenario, never averaged across scenarios |
| Model structure | Dominant for regional precipitation and extremes | Multi-model ensembles with spread |
| Internal variability | Dominant for the next decades locally | Large ensembles |
| Observational baseline | Station density and reanalysis bias | Comparison of products |
| Rare-event statistics | Short records for extremes | Confidence intervals on return levels |
Projections carry IPCC calibrated language where they draw on assessed findings.
How uncertainty is reported.
- 01
State assumptions
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
- 02
Quantify where possible
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
- 03
Validate and compare
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
- 04
Publish limits
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Where this page’s references lead.
نهادها و اسنادی که این صفحه بر پایهٔ آن‌ها خوانده می‌شود. وضعیت و ویراست‌ها تغییر می‌کنند؛ هر پیوند به نهاد صادرکننده می‌رود.
پرسش و پاسخ.
Are the methods open?
شواهد را از همین صفحه ارسال کنید.
گزارش‌ها is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- ایمیلدرگاه GW-GCRIاز همین صفحه ارسال کنیدشواهد، یک اصلاحیه، یک مورد، یک روش، یک داوری، یک ترجمه یا ورودی نمایه. با برچسب این صفحه میرسد تا ویراستار مسئول آن را دریافت کند.
- Zenodoسپردهٔ بازآن را واگذار کنید و به جامعه ارائه دهیدسابقهٔ خود را با شناسهٔ ORCID خود در Zenodo منتشر کنید و سپس آن را در همانجا به جامعهٔ Reports ارسال کنید. گزینشگران آن را داوری می‌کنند؛ DOI از آنِ شما میماند.
- گزارش‌هاGCRIهمهٔ راههای مشارکت را ببینیدانواع مشارکت، نحوهٔ بررسی هر یک، اعتباری که دریافت میکنید، مجوز و آنچه هرگز پذیرفته نمیشود.
هرگز داده شخصی، جزئیات حساس زیرساخت یا چیزی را که حق اشتراکش را ندارید نفرستید. هر مشارکت پیش از استفاده داوری می‌شود؛ ارسال آن حق مؤلفی یا ویرایشی نمی‌دهد و حمایت مالی هرگز یافته‌ای را نمی‌خرد.
یک روش، یک مجموعه‌داده یا یک پرسش بیاورید.
اطلاعات و درخواست‌ها امروز باز است. هر درخواست یک شمارهٔ پیگیری می‌گیرد و گام بعدی را مشخص می‌کند؛ درخواست‌های عضویت، پرداخت‌ها، تخصیص رایانش و ثبت‌نام‌ها تنها زمانی باز می‌شوند که تیم، شرایط و ظرفیت داوری آن‌ها فراهم باشد.
اسناد حقوقی.
نقشه‌ها، داده‌ها و ارقام این سایت برای زمینه و اطلاعات عمومی نشان داده می‌شوند. توصیه، پیش‌بینی یا هشدار نیستند؛ حدود این اطلاعات در سلب مسئولیت‌ها و اعلامیه‌های داده بیان شده است.