Disaster Resilience and Recovery
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
The methods Disaster Resilience and Recovery relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.
GCRI · In development · service level R0
The Disaster Resilience and Recovery methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them decision analysis under uncertainty, social and behavioural science, and forecasting and time-series analysis, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
For methods and uncertainty, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, land cover and flood water, framed on the Philippines; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.
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For methods and uncertainty, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, land cover and flood water, framed on the Philippines; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
| Source | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Loss data | Under-reporting of small and slow-onset disasters | Database coverage stated, comparisons with caveats |
| Exposure | Population and asset data age quickly | Data date and source on each layer |
| Vulnerability | Fragility of buildings and livelihoods varies locally | Ranges and local calibration |
| Behaviour in warnings | Response to warnings is uncertain | Survey evidence and scenarios |
Loss figures are always reported with the database and its definitions; international databases and national loss accounts differ.
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Sensitivity analysis | Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them. |
| Model validation | Comparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use. |
| Decision analysis under uncertainty | Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.