GCRI · Economic Development

Economic Development

Economic transformation, inclusive growth, industry, trade and development under systemic risk. Economic Development is an established platform of The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation.

STEM methods
5
Canonical methods this field applies
Topics
8
Subject pages in the field
Counterparts
4
Platforms in shared fields across the network
Report series
2
Reports series it contributes to
01Register

20 pages under Economic Development.

Economic Development
  1. 01STEM methods5 canonical methods applied
  2. 02Topics8 subject pages
  3. 03Counterparts4 platforms in shared fields
  4. 04Report series2 Reports series
  5. 05Mandate publisherMandate and publisher
  6. 06Field overviewField overview
  7. 07Research evidenceResearch and evidence
  8. 08Innovation practicalInnovation and practical technology
02Coverage

The areas of economic development this platform takes on.

Economic Development studies how economies grow, transform and share the gains, and how systemic shocks set them back. Its pages cover inclusive productivity, industrial policy and upgrading, trade and external shocks, regional development, the digital economy, public finance and fiscal risk, the economics of food, energy and water, and employment under technological change. They set out data, methods and evidence with every value labelled by its evidence and every limit stated. Finance and planning ministries, central banks and development institutions decide.

Area

Inclusive productivity

How output per worker grows and whether the gains reach workers, firms and regions that lag.

Area

Industrial policy and upgrading

Public action to build capabilities, diversify production and move into higher-value activities.

Area

Trade and external shocks

How commodity prices, demand and finance from abroad transmit shocks into domestic economies.

Area

Regional development

Why some places prosper while others fall behind, and what policies change that.

Area

Digital economy and inclusion

Digital adoption by firms and people, and who is left out of its benefits.

Area

Public finance and risk

Budgets, debt, contingent liabilities and the fiscal cost of disasters and crises.

Area

Food, energy and water economics

Prices, markets and investment in the resources that every sector depends on.

Area

Employment and technology

How technological change reshapes jobs, wages and informality in developing economies.

03Monitor

Shock propagation model.

The screen a team would use to follow this field: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.

Shock propagation model

National economy · Scenario: import price shock

Output loss above thresholdGCRI · Economic Development

Output impact by channel

Most affected sectors

Food processing▼ 85403Backward
Transport▼ 41841Forward
Construction▼ 32483Backward
Retail▼ 17402Demand

Fiscal room

local units, billions, illustrative

Revenue loss1.4Support measures1.8Contingency reserve1.1 of 2.5 required
Shock propagation model: the screen’s structure, terms and states for National economy.Example names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.
05Simulator

Stocks, flows, delays and a tipping threshold.

Two stocks, pressure and adaptive capacity, joined by a reinforcing growth loop, a delayed balancing response and damage when pressure outruns capacity; past the threshold the system can tip. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows Africa; the model itself is not tied to a place.

Controls

Growth of pressure
6.0% a year
Efficacy of capacity in reducing pressure
4.0% a year
Investment response to perceived pressure
20%
Perception delay
4.0 years
Tipping threshold of pressure
60 index
Amplification past the threshold
2.0 times
Years simulated
50 years

Readouts

Peak pressure
113 index
Capacity at the end
186 index
Years over the threshold
15.8 years
Numbers, methods and sources
YearPressureCapacityPerceived
020.050.020.0
423.344.921.2
827.242.224.0
1231.742.327.7
1636.845.532.2
2042.351.537.2
2447.960.342.6
2853.271.348.0
3257.884.353.1
3666.498.458.4
4082.7115.969.7
4497.8139.783.8
48109.1169.497.3

Methods

  1. System dynamics Forrester (1961), Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press; Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics
  2. Critical transitions and tipping points Scheffer and others (2009), Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461
  3. Causal loop diagram Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics, McGraw-Hill
  4. Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
  5. One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley

Data

No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.

Stocks, flows, delays and a tipping threshold. Illustrative teaching model: it runs on the values set by the controls, not on measured data. Methods: System dynamics (Forrester (1961), Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press; Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics); Critical transitions and tipping points (Scheffer and others (2009), Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461); Causal loop diagram (Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics, McGraw-Hill).
06Frameworks

What the work is read against.

The platform does not set standards. It reads its evidence against the frameworks that competent bodies have adopted, so a finding can be placed where a decision-maker already works.

Framework or standardBodyWhat it sets
System of National AccountsUnited Nations, European Commission, IMF, OECD and World BankThe international standard for measuring economic activity, including GDP
Sustainable Development Goals 8, 9 and 10United NationsTargets for decent work and growth, industry and infrastructure, and reduced inequality
Addis Ababa Action Agenda and the Sevilla financing for development outcomeUnited Nations Financing for Development conferencesCommitments on mobilising public and private finance for development
IMF Fiscal Transparency CodeInternational Monetary FundStandards for fiscal reporting, forecasting and fiscal risk management
Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability frameworkPEFA Secretariat and partnersAssessment of public financial management performance
Debt Sustainability FrameworksIMF and World BankMethods for assessing public debt sustainability in low-income and market-access countries
System of Environmental-Economic AccountingUN Statistical CommissionIntegrating environmental and economic data, including ecosystem accounts
Decent Work Agenda and ILO international labour standardsInternational Labour OrganizationStandards on employment, rights at work, social protection and dialogue
07Twin and cascade simulator

Model Economic Development as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Financial and economic risk standards: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

Hazards

  • Sea-level rise
  • Dam failure
  • Coastal flood (set off downstream)
  • Storm surge (set off downstream)
  • High-tide flooding (set off downstream)
  • Coastal erosion (set off downstream)
  • Saltwater intrusion (set off downstream)
  • Estuary flood (set off downstream)
  • River flood (set off downstream)
  • Flash flood (set off downstream)
  • Mass displacement (set off downstream)
  • Coastal habitat squeeze (set off downstream)
  • Wetland loss (set off downstream)
  • Mangrove loss (set off downstream)
  • Groundwater flood (set off downstream)
  • Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
  • Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
  • Climate-driven migration and relocation (set off downstream)

Controls

  • NS-0 Constitution and principles
  • NS-3 Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)
  • NS-9 Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)
  • NS-10 Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)
  • NS-11 Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)
  • NS-14 Conformance and crosswalk to external standards
  • NRS-H59 Hazard family: Economic shocks and governance failure (NHS-1 soc.economic)
  • NRS-H113 Hazard family: Financial-system fragility (NHS-1 soc.financial-system)
  • NRS-H118 Hazard family: Organised crime and illicit economies (NHS-1 soc.crime)
  • NRS-H114 Hazard family: Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks (NHS-1 soc.macro-fiscal)
  • NRS-H61 Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)
  • NRS-U27 Universe platform profile: Sovereign Capital Nexus

Observation

  • IMF data services (WEO, IFS, FSI via SDMX) (listed for reference)
  • BIS Data Portal (credit, debt service, property prices, banking statistics) (listed for reference)
  • World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
  • OECD Data Explorer (SDMX API) (listed for reference)
  • Macroeconomic Dashboard
  • Debt service as a proportion of exports of goods and services
  • Financial Soundness Indicators

Example geography

  • Western Europe: 152 hexagonal cells
  • Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
  • Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
  • Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
  • Vegetation disturbance alerts, 30 m (OPERA DIST-ALERT), NASA GIBS
08Overview

What Economic Development does.

Economic development is the sustained improvement in living standards that comes from growth, structural transformation and the wide sharing of gains. Economic Development covers productivity, industrial policy, external shocks, regions, the digital economy, public finance, food, energy and water economics, and employment under technological change. Ministries, central banks and development institutions decide.

Who it serves

Its community

Development economists; policy researchers; economic planners; industry analysts.

How it works

Its methods

Economic risk modelling; inclusive indicators; input-output and fiscal analysis.

What it produces

Its outputs

Development resilience profiles; economic transmission methods; policy briefs.

09Methods and evidence

How Economic Development is modelled, measured and tested.

The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.

Model, equations and assumptions

The model structure used for Economic Development, the assumptions it makes and how each is tested.

Risk of element iRi = f(Hi, Ei, Vi, Ci)hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity
Expected annual lossEAL = ∑k pk · Lkover events k with annual probability pk
Coupled systemsxt+1 = A xt + B ut + εtA carries the couplings, u the shock, ε the error
AssumptionWhy it is madeHow it is tested
Hazard and exposure are independent within an eventKeeps the loss integral tractableCompare with a copula fit on joint records
Couplings are linear near the operating pointLets shocks propagate through APerturb beyond the linear range and compare
Vulnerability curves transfer between placesLocal curves are rarely availableValidate against observed losses where they exist
Inputs
versioned datasets with provenance
Outputs
distributions, never single numbers
Code
released with the model card and tests
Reproduction
same data, code, environment and seed
Standard risk and state-space formulations; the assumptions listed are typical of the method, stated for review, not results.

Sensitivity analysis

Which inputs move the result for Economic Development most, one at a time across their stated ranges.

Hazard intensityExposure valueVulnerability curveCoupling strengthAdaptive capacityData resolutioninput at its low valueinput at its high value
Illustrative one-at-a-time sensitivity; a full analysis adds variance-based (Sobol) indices. Not results.
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
10Mandate and boundaries

What Economic Development studies, and who decides economic policy.

Economic Development, studies how economies grow, transform and share gains, and how systemic shocks set them back. Finance and planning ministries, central banks and development institutions decide; the platform recommends no investment, lends nothing and takes no position on economic policy beyond setting out evidence and trade-offs.

Economic projections shown here are scenario illustrations, never forecasts.

11Geography

People and exposure in Africa.

Population density, night lights and daytime surface heat over Africa, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

People and exposure, for this page

About this layer
Evidence
Estimated
Source
Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
Provider
NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
Licence
CC BY 4.0
Vintage
null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
Provider
NASA LAADS DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
Newest at build
2026-10-12
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
Newest at build
2026-09-14
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite image
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
Source
MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
Provider
NASA LP DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
Newest at build
2024-01-01
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
OMI Aura (NASA GES DISC)
Provider
NASA GES DISC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-10
Resolution
about 2 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite column of nitrogen dioxide in the lower atmosphere on the day shown, mostly from combustion; not a ground-level concentration or a health warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

People and exposure, framed on Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • OMI nitrogen dioxide (Aura) and OMPS aerosol index (Suomi NPP), NASA; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (9 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Nitrogen dioxide, lower atmosphere column: OMI Aura, NASA GES DISC · 10 Oct 2026

13Reports, standards and contributions

Where economic evidence goes.

Economic analyses are designed for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series; fiscal risk questions connect to the work of The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) within its own boundaries. National accounts series would keep their statistical source under the proposed Nexus Standards.

  • Economists can contribute evaluations, including null results.
  • Statistics offices can share sub-national data.
  • Ministries can propose a scoping dialogue.
14The problem

Development gains are exposed to shocks that arrive together.

Economic development is the long process by which economies raise productivity, diversify what they produce and translate that into better lives: higher incomes, decent jobs, health, education and security. Development economics has learned that this process is neither automatic nor linear. Growth can stall, gains can be concentrated, and progress built over a decade can be lost in a single crisis.

Shocks increasingly arrive in combination. A drought reduces harvests and hydropower, raising food and energy prices; a global slowdown lowers export demand and remittances; higher interest rates raise debt service; and a health emergency closes businesses and schools. Each shock weakens the capacity to absorb the next. Households sell assets or withdraw children from school, firms close, and governments cut investment to meet obligations, which slows recovery.

These are systemic effects. They pass through supply chains, labour markets, prices, public budgets and financial systems, and their consequences are uneven across regions, sectors and social groups. Understanding them requires economic models that represent interdependence and that are tested against evidence, not assumed.

15What the platform does

Research on how economies develop, transmit shocks and recover.

The platform is designed to produce method-transparent evidence on development under systemic risk.

Modelling

Economic risk modelling

Input-output, macroeconomic and agent-based models of how shocks transmit through economies.

Measurement

Inclusive indicators

Measures of who gains and who loses, beyond averages, by region, sector, sex and income.

Public finance

Fiscal analysis

Evidence on fiscal capacity, contingent liabilities and the public cost of shocks.

Signature outputs are designed to include development resilience profiles, economic transmission methods and policy briefs, each released with its data and assumptions.

16Foundations and counterparts

How the platform works with its STEM foundation and the other institutions.

Economic Development is the steward of three STEM methods in the GCRI STEM Commons: economics and development economics, econometrics and causal inference and impact evaluation. It also applies network science and contagion and complex systems and agent-based modelling. Its STEM applications show how each is used.

Economic development is the real-economy field; financial specialisms belong to The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Its GRA industry counterparts are the Development Finance Nexus, Disaster Risk Finance and Public Finance and Sovereign Debt, which build shared industry understanding without giving advice or arranging transactions. At The Global Risks Forum, the Capital Nexus at The Global Risks Forum (GRF) convenes dialogue on how capital is governed for development. See all counterparts.

The platform’s evidence is designed to feed the Reports Country Systems series and Global Systems series, and a Universe exercise on the economic transmission of a compound shock, described on the platform’s Universe page.

17Grounding

Built on named science, technology, engineering and mathematics.

Every claim on Economic Development rests on methods with a canonical page in the STEM Commons, so readers can see what a finding depends on and where its limits lie.

Economics and development economicsEconometricsCausal inference and impact evaluationNetwork science and contagionComplex systems and agent-based modelling

See the STEM foundation of Economic Development

18Cycle

How work moves in this field.

A question becomes evidence, a governed build, an organised community, a controlled test, a reviewed publication and, finally, a decision taken by the competent authority under its own rules.

  1. Question Universe National, regional or institutional priority. Question in Economic Development
  2. Evidence Foundry STEM foundation of the platform. Evidence in Economic Development
  3. Build Foundry Foundry. Build in Economic Development
  4. Organise Universe Nexus ecosystem. Organise in Economic Development
  5. Test Universe Universe (independent site). Test in Economic Development
  6. Publish Reports Reports. Publish in Economic Development
  7. Decide Competent authority Competent authorities and institutions, through NXS-RLS (participants, agreements and handoffs). Decide in Economic Development
  8. Renew Universe Corrections and the next annual agenda. Renew in Economic Development

Each step of the cycle in the pillar it runs in; the decision stays with the competent authority, outside the programme.

19Six pillars

How this works across the six pillars.

Economic Development works through six pillars of one annual programme, led by the Nexus Consortium, with GCRI, GRF and GRA each contributing in its role: explore, experiment and prototype in Labs, build, simulate and prepare in Foundry, convene and test in Universe, codify, correct and apply in Nexus Standards, publish in every format in Reports, teach in the open in Risk Academy.

Select pillars · hover lines18 / 18 handoffs

Route

The whole programme

Every pillar hands its work to another; together they close the year’s feedback loops.

L · F · U · S · R · A

Pillars
6 of 6
Handoffs
18 of 18
Loops
17 closed

Handoffs in play

  • F01Universe → Foundry · Admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision caseReadiness preparation
  • F02Foundry → Universe · Core Build Report and go or no-go evidenceControlled build
  • F03Foundry → Reports · Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profileCloseout
  • F04Universe → Reports · After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13After-action review

and 14 more

F01 to F14 are the recorded handoffs of the programme year, each with the artefact that moves and its phase; R1, R2, R3 and R4 carry work around the ring. A loop counts when every pillar on it is selected. Every pillar is led by the Nexus Consortium.
  1. LabsWhere questions become experiments and prototypes: new methods, data and tools are tried in the open, with their limits on record, before the Foundry builds them, under the Nexus Consortium.Labs
  2. FoundryWhere methods, data and models become reproducible builds, each run with its inputs, version and limits on record.Economic Development in FoundryFoundry
  3. UniverseWhere a build is tested under controlled conditions with independent evaluators, so a method’s skill is measured, not assumed.Economic Development in Universeuniverse.nexus
  4. Nexus StandardsWhere methods, identifiers and data schemas are codified in the open and corrected when a test finds a fault.Finance, Insurance and the Economy in Standardsnexustandards.com
  5. ReportsWhere findings are published with their method, uncertainty and evidence class, and corrected as new versions.Economic Development in ReportsReports
  6. Risk AcademyWhere methods and systems are taught on real data and real places, by working the case, on Risk Academy.Faculty of Finance and Economics in Academyrisksacademy.com
20Consortium

The same field, seen three ways.

GCRI studies a field as science, GRF governs it and GRA builds shared financial understanding of it. Economic Development links to its counterparts so that work on one side is visible on the others.

23Connected

Where this page leads across the Consortium.

24Questions

Questions and answers.

Who publishes Economic Development?
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) publishes Economic Development and is responsible for what it publishes. GCRI is a research, development and policy institution. It is not a regulator, and it does not certify, license or approve; its findings carry their methods and uncertainty.
Is Economic Development active?
Economic Development is an established platform of The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation. Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
How can I contribute?
Start with the participation paths or write to the contact form. An enquiry receives a reference; it does not create membership, a role or an assignment.
Where are findings published?
Reviewed outputs appear on the publications page, and contributions to the Reports series are listed on Publish in Reports.
Which values on this platform are real?
Indicator names, units, sources, methods and frameworks are real. Levels in figures and canvases are examples in a design. A programme replaces them with labelled evidence it owns.
How do I report an error?
Use corrections and concerns, or write to the integrity concern form. A correction is recorded as a new version, never a silent edit.
How does this platform differ from GRA’s development finance work?
This platform studies the real economy: production, trade, jobs and public budgets. GRA platforms build industry understanding of how those risks appear in finance. Each links to the other’s work.
Does the platform advise governments on economic policy?
No. It produces research and briefs that explain mechanisms and trade-offs. Policy choices remain with governments and their institutions.
ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRIEconomic DevelopmentCountry Systems Risk and ResilienceGlobal Systems Risk and Resilience
How it works

How Economic Development works.

Choose a view and press Play to follow the platform’s process, its programme year, the standards it applies and how its findings are published. The outline shows how the work is designed to run, not the status of any decision.

Economic Development

How Economic Development works

Platforms · Programme year · Standards · Reports

A platform joins a field to named methods, labelled evidence and the outputs it publishes, without becoming the authority it serves.

  1. 01 Scope

    1. 01Field and familiesStart · The platform leadThe home states the field, its families and who it serves.
    2. 02Topic dossiersRecord · Platform authorsTopics explain the subject with labelled evidence.
  2. 02 Evidence

    1. 03Evidence labelsRecord · GCRIEach value is labelled: observed, published statistics, estimated, modelled, scenario or unknown.
    2. 04MethodsStep · Method ownersMethods come from the STEM Commons, each with one canonical page.
  3. 03 Work

    1. 05Scenarios on the systemsModel · Foundry pillarScenarios run on the Nexus systems, labelled as scenario.
    2. 06Standards that applyRecord · Nexus StandardsThe platform names the standards that apply. A validator report is evidence for review.
  4. 04 Publish

    1. 07EditionsRecord · ReportsFindings are published through Reports with their limits.
    2. 08Authority decidesOutcome · The competent authorityDecisions and execution stay with the government, operator or licensed institution.

Economic Development home · Platforms · Shared methodsAn outline of how the work is designed to run; it does not report the status of any decision or record.

Take part

Take part in Economic Development.

Start from who you are. Answer an open call. Or form and lead a competence cell on the Economic Development platform.

Route

National institutions

Ministries, statistics offices and agencies: a national desk and chapter, and a seat in the working groups. National chapters

Route

Sectors and professions

Operators, regulators, banks, insurers and professional bodies whose work touches Economic Development. Participate

Route

Learning

Courses and practice, with a record of every course completed. Free to study. Open learning

Route

Standards

Draft, review and adopt the methods and data standards with the working groups. Working groups

Route

Communities and research

Universities, civil society and individual experts: projects, data and review. Write to the team

The Global Risks Index

Every figure on this page is indexed: society, demography, health, Africa.

The Index is the Consortium’s indexing system for risk data. Every indicator, hazard, series and country profile carries its Nexus Standards identifier, its source and its licence, so what this page shows can be traced, corrected and reused.

  1. 01 · Sources205 registered sourcesEvery value keeps its source and licence; withheld values are counted.Data and licences
  2. 02 · Nexus StandardsNIS-1 and NHS-1451 indicators, 905 hazards; every record carries a UNI.Nexus Standards
  3. 03 · The Index54 series, 195 country profilesComputed on the standards; no value is published until an edition is released.The Global Risks Index
  4. 04 · This pageEconomic DevelopmentMaps, figures and feeds read the Index in the context of society, demography, health and Africa.Public API
Sources205registered, each with its licence
Indicators451NIS-1, 106 composites, 20 domain indices
Hazards905NHS-1, crosswalked to UNDRR-ISC HIPs
Series54global, sector, strategic, technology, thematic
Country profiles195one site per country

Series in this context society, demography, health

  1. GSGlobal DevelopmentPoverty, inequality, human development, demographic pressure and displacement as the ground on which shocks become losses.NXS-GRX-AR-000064Society · Demography · Health
  2. GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap…NXS-GRX-AR-000002Society · Health · Demography
  3. GSGlobal HealthHealth security capacity, epidemic emergence and spread, heat and air-quality burden, health system stress and access.NXS-GRX-AR-000062Health · Society · Demography
  4. SRConflict, fragility and human securityConflict risk and escalation, fragility, organised violence, civilian harm and the conflict–climate–food–displacement nexus.NXS-GRX-AR-000075Governance · Demography · Society

All 54 series · The 20 domain indices

Hazard domains NHS-1

Geodata and API open

Open layers on an equal-area hexagon grid, shown as densities per km² or as symbols: People · GHSL 2025People · WorldPop 2025Built-up areaPortsAirportsRoadsRailwaysRivers and lake centrelines

/api/v1/public/grix · https://nexustandards.com/uni/{uni}
Developers · Data · Made with Natural Earth, Public domain; GHSL and WorldPop, CC BY 4.0

Snapshot of the Index registries pinned 2026-10-23 · 22c6eed. Research and risk-analytics information: not a rating, an official classification, a warning, a benchmark or advice.

Economic Development

Bring a method, a dataset or a question.

Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

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Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

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GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.