GCRI · Energy Nexus
Energy security
Energy security is the uninterrupted availability of energy at a price society can bear, and its dimensions move separately: physical adequacy of supply, reliability of delivery, diversity of fuels and routes, affordability, and whether households and services have access at all. This page sets out how insecurity develops, how adequacy and access are measured, and which evidence the ministries, regulators and operators who hold the decisions use.
Energy security on the record.
Energy security: how the risk develops.
Supply adequacy, access and reliability. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Adequacy is probabilistic
A system is adequate when available capacity, storage, demand response and imports meet demand with an accepted risk of shortfall. Adequacy is stated as an expected loss of load, not a yes or no, and it depends on weather, plant outages and imports failing together.
Concentration creates exposure
Dependence on one fuel, one supplier, one pipeline or one shipping strait turns a distant disruption into a domestic shortage. Diversity of sources and routes, and the stocks held in reserve, decide how far the shock travels.
Price transmits the shock
A supply disruption appears first as a spike in wholesale fuel and power prices, then in household bills, industrial costs, subsidy budgets and the balance of payments. Affordability failures can cut access as surely as a physical shortfall.
Access failures persist
Where households lack electricity or clean cooking, clinics, water pumping and schools depend on fuel deliveries and small generators. Insecurity there is chronic rather than episodic, and it compounds every other hazard that arrives.
Energy now in Europe.
Night lights, population density and land cover over Europe, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Energy now, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest month GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MERRA-2 (NASA GMAO / GES DISC)
- Provider
- NASA GMAO / GES DISC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- monthly; Reanalysis model; latest month GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2026-07-01
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Reanalysis model estimate of monthly mean incoming sunlight over land; an indicator of solar resource, not a site yield assessment.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground on the day shown, an indicator of cooling demand; not air temperature or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Energy now, framed on Europe.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA/NOAA VIIRS · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- MERRA-2 reanalysis, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Observed (EO): NASA/NOAA VIIRS (Suomi NPP). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (10 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Incoming sunlight at the surface over land, monthly mean: MERRA-2, NASA GMAO / GES DISC · July 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Land surface temperature, day: VIIRS NOAA-20, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
Energy security as an input to every other life-support system.
| Domain | How it couples here | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Water | Pumping, treatment and desalination stop without affordable power. See water utilities. | Utility fuel and power cost exposure |
| Food | Fertiliser, transport and processing carry energy prices into food prices. See food trade and markets. | Pass-through from gas to fertiliser to grain prices |
| Health | Hospitals, cold chains and heating or cooling of homes depend on energy access. See healthcare infrastructure. | Energy poverty indicators; facility electrification |
| Biodiversity | Fuel wood and charcoal demand rise when modern fuels are unaffordable. | Household fuel mix |
The International Energy Agency defines energy security as the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price. Its members commit to hold oil stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of the previous year’s net imports, and the European Union set gas storage obligations under Regulation 2022/1032 after the 2022 gas crisis. The World Energy Outlook 2025 sets the current global context.
Grid contingency board.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Energy security evidence and where it is designed to go.
Energy security analyses are designed for the Strategic Systems series and, for national studies, the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) advises no government on supply contracts and forecasts no prices. Supply and stock series would carry NS-3 record identifiers under the proposed Nexus Standards.
- Import dependence and route data for a country, with sources.
- Historical supply disruption cases and how they were managed.
- Household energy access survey results.
A cascade through interdependent networks.
A hazard footprint takes out co-located assets in every layer; fragmentation, dependency between layers and overload of the survivors then spread the failure. The 3D view separates the layers by depth. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows Europe; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Assets per layer
- 18
- Hazard footprint
- 8% of area
- Assets that depend on another layer
- 60%
- Spare capacity (tolerance)
- 30%
Readouts
- Assets hit by the hazard
- 6%
- Assets still working
- 30%
- Amplification of the initial damage
- 12.7 times
- Steps to settle
- 3
Numbers, methods and sources
| Step | Power working (%) | Gas working (%) | Telecoms working (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94 | 94 | 94 |
| 1 | 67 | 50 | 56 |
| 2 | 39 | 17 | 44 |
| 3 | 33 | 17 | 39 |
Methods
- Interdependent networks Buldyrev and others (2010), Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks, Nature 464
- Overload cascades Motter and Lai (2002), Physical Review E 66
- Betweenness load Brandes (2001), Journal of Mathematical Sociology 25
- Multilayer networks Kivela and others (2014), Journal of Complex Networks 2
- Infrastructure interdependencies Rinaldi, Peerenboom and Kelly (2001), IEEE Control Systems 21(6)
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Major roads Natural Earth
- Railways Natural Earth
- Seaports Natural Earth
- Airports Natural Earth
- Urban extents Natural Earth
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band) NASA/NOAA VIIRS (Suomi NPP) · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
- Natural events (NASA EONET) NASA EONET · register nasa.eonet.events
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Energy Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Energy Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Energy and Critical Infrastructure in Standards
- Published in Energy Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Infrastructure, Energy and Industry in Academy
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected unserved energy | megawatt hours per year | annual planning cycle | Probabilistic adequacy assessment | MODELLED |
| Loss of load expectation | hours per year | annual planning cycle | Probabilistic adequacy assessment | MODELLED |
| Net energy import dependence | percent of total energy supply | annual | National energy balances | Published statistics |
| Supplier concentration index | dimensionless (Herfindahl-Hirschman) | annual | Trade statistics by fuel and origin | ESTIMATED |
| Emergency oil stocks | days of net imports | monthly | Stockholding agency reports | Published statistics |
| Gas storage fill level | percent of working gas capacity | daily | Storage operator reporting | REPORTED |
| Access to electricity | percent of population | annual | Household surveys and utility records | ESTIMATED |
| Access to clean cooking | percent of population | annual | Household surveys and WHO modelling | MODELLED |
Model energy security as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Energy risk standards: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Heatwave
- Windstorm
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Large forest disturbance (set off downstream)
- Wildfire (set off downstream)
- Extreme fire weather (set off downstream)
- Heat-driven grid stress (set off downstream)
- Agricultural drought (set off downstream)
- Flash drought (set off downstream)
- Snow drought (set off downstream)
- Ground-level ozone episode (set off downstream)
- Meteorological drought (set off downstream)
- Extreme night-time heat (set off downstream)
- Lake and river heatwave (set off downstream)
- Cooling-water curtailment of power plants (set off downstream)
- Heat-induced track buckling (set off downstream)
- Shoreline ice shove (set off downstream)
- Seiche (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
- Energy risk standards
- Water risk standards Common driver
- Critical infrastructure and critical entities Cascade
- Climate risk standards Feedback
- Space weather, spectrum and timing risk standards Common driver
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-1The UNI and the artefact catalogue (grammar v0.2: domain, sector, region and environment segments)NS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NRS-H84Hazard family: Energy system instability and shortfall (NHS-1 infra.energy)NRS-H61Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)NRS-U8Universe platform profile: Energy NexusNRS-H48Hazard family: Utility and communication network outage (NHS-1 infra.utilities)NRS-H109Hazard family: Energy-transition technology failures (NHS-1 tech.energy-transition)NRS-H54Hazard family: Signal and platform disruption (NHS-1 cyber.platform)
Observation
- Global Power Plant Database (listed for reference)
- NASA Black Marble night-time lights (VNP46) (listed for reference)
- Ember electricity data (listed for reference)
- ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (listed for reference)
- EIA Open Data API (listed for reference)
- Proportion of population with access to electricity
- Renewable energy share in total final energy consumption
- Number of disruptions to basic services attributed to disasters
- Damage to critical infrastructure attributed to disasters
Example geography
- Europe: 113 hexagonal cells
- Surface air temperature, daytime (AIRS), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Vegetation disturbance alerts, 30 m (OPERA DIST-ALERT), NASA GIBS
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| IEA World Energy Balances | Supply, transformation and final consumption by fuel and country | Licensed; selected tables free under IEA terms |
| UN Energy Statistics Database (UNSD) | Production, trade and consumption of energy commodities by country | Free access, UN terms |
| JODI Oil and JODI Gas | Monthly production, trade, stocks and demand reported by national administrations | Free, attribution |
| GIE AGSI+ and ALSI | Daily gas storage and LNG terminal levels in Europe | Free, registration and terms |
| Tracking SDG7 (IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank, WHO) | Access, renewables, efficiency and finance indicators for every country | Free and open, attribution |
| ENTSO-E European Resource Adequacy Assessment | Probabilistic adequacy methods and results for the European system | Public report, ENTSO-E terms |
| NERC long-term and seasonal reliability assessments | Resource adequacy and risk areas across North America | Public reports |
| EIA international energy data | Production, consumption, trade and reserves by country | Public domain |
The sector signature of energy security.
The sectors energy security touches and how strongly they depend on each other: what a study has to observe and model together.
Signature
Energy and its partners
Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).
W · E · I · F · H · B
- Sectors
- 4 of 6
- Relations
- 6 of 15
- Coupling
- 0.46 share of total
Strongest relations in play
- Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
- Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
- Water → Food · irrigation0.8
- Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Energy Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Energy ministries | Whether supply is adequate for the coming winter and summer, and what reserves or contracts to secure | Probabilistic adequacy with its assumptions; storage and stock levels against obligations |
| Energy regulators | Whether the reliability standard is set at the right level and whether market rules deliver it | Expected unserved energy against the standard; the value of lost load behind it |
| Transmission system operators | Which resources to procure for reserve and when to declare scarcity | Seasonal outlooks, interconnector availability and planned outages |
| Development finance institutions | Where access investment protects health and water services first | Access gap layers with survey and model estimates labelled apart |
Outputs this topic produces
- Adequacy scenarios with weather, outage and import assumptions stated
- Supply dependency maps by fuel, supplier and route
- Access gap layers for health and water services
- Price transmission traces from wholesale markets to households
How energy security is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
System model
The couplings between the systems in energy security: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
What energy security experts ask.
- Will there be enough firm capacity and stored energy to meet demand through the hardest periods of the year, including long cold and still spells?
- How exposed is supply to a single fuel, route, supplier or piece of infrastructure?
- How quickly can the system respond to the sudden loss of its largest generator or interconnector?
- Which households and services lose access first in a shortage, and how are they protected?
What makes a system insecure.
Single points of supply
Dependence on one pipeline, import terminal, fuel type or supplier means one disruption removes a large share of supply.
Correlated shortfalls
Cold snaps raise demand while reducing wind, solar or gas deliverability, so stress arrives on both sides of the balance at once.
Slow replacement
Power plants, networks and fuel infrastructure take years to build, so shortfalls identified late cannot be fixed quickly.
How adequacy and security are assessed.
- 01
Probabilistic adequacy
Models simulate many weather years and random outages to estimate the expected frequency and depth of unserved energy. Results depend on the weather record used and on assumptions about imports and demand flexibility.
- 02
Contingency analysis
Engineers test whether the system survives the loss of any single major element. This captures ordinary faults well but not extreme, simultaneous events.
- 03
Supply diversity indicators
Measures of concentration across fuels, routes and suppliers. They describe exposure, not the likelihood of disruption.
- 04
Stress scenarios
Designed combinations of extremes, built with forecasting and optimisation methods. Scenarios test assumptions; they are not predictions.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Optimisation and operations researchCapacity expansion planning · Unit commitment and dispatch · Restoration sequencingApplied here
- 02Forecasting and time-series analysisLoad forecasting with weather · Wind and solar power forecasts · Seasonal adequacy outlooksApplied here
- 03Power systems engineeringContingency and load flow studies · Frequency stability with less inertiaApplied here
- 04Network science and contagionInterdependency mapping · Cascades on multilayer networks · Criticality rankingApplied here
- 05Reliability and resilience engineeringRestoration curve analysis · Fault trees for critical sites · Fragility curves for grid assetsApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
What is resource adequacy?
Why is energy security not a single index?
Does Energy Nexus forecast energy prices?
Which values on this page are real?
Does more interconnection weaken security?
Is energy security only about electricity?
Does Energy Nexus publish national security ratings?
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