GCRI · Food Nexus
Food trade and markets
Trade moves food from surplus to deficit regions and lets countries eat beyond what they grow. It also concentrates dependence: a few exporters supply most traded grain and vegetable oil, and much of it passes through a few straits, canals and ports. Prices carry shocks from world markets into local ones, unevenly. This page sets out how import dependence, market concentration, chokepoints and price transmission are measured, and who decides on the evidence.
Food trade and markets on the record.
Food trade and markets: how the risk develops.
Import concentration, prices and trade routes. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Import dependence and concentration
Countries that import much of a staple from few suppliers are exposed to those suppliers’ harvests, policies and logistics. Concentration of both suppliers and routes compounds the exposure.
Chokepoints channel flows
Grain, oilseeds and fertiliser move through a limited set of straits, canals, rail corridors and ports. Closure, congestion or low water reroutes cargo, lengthens voyages and raises freight and insurance costs.
Export restrictions multiply
When prices spike, exporters may restrict sales to protect domestic consumers. Each restriction raises world prices further and encourages others to follow, so a supply shock becomes a policy shock.
Transmission is uneven
World price changes reach local markets through exchange rates, transport costs, tariffs, subsidies and market structure. Currency depreciation can raise import costs even while world prices fall.
Growing conditions in the Black Sea region.
Crop greenness, night lights and population density over the Black Sea region, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Growing conditions, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- MODIS Terra NDVI (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite index; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite greenness index over the 8 days to the date shown; an indicator of crop and pasture condition, not a yield estimate or a food security warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled
- Source
- SMAP Level 4 (NASA NSIDC DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA NSIDC DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Model with satellite data assimilated
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-11
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Model with satellite data assimilated. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Growing conditions, framed on the Black Sea region.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- SMAP Level 4 soil moisture and snow mass, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office; distributed by the NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (13 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Vegetation greenness (NDVI), rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra NDVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Root-zone soil moisture, 0 to 100 cm: SMAP Level 4, NASA NSIDC DAAC · 11 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
Markets transmit shocks from every domain into prices.
| Domain | How it couples here | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | Oil and gas prices move freight, fertiliser and biofuel demand, and with them grain prices. See energy security. | Correlation of energy and food price indices |
| Water | Drought in an exporting region tightens world supply. | Production outlook in major exporters |
| Health | Price spikes reduce dietary quality before they reduce calories. | Cost of a healthy diet relative to income |
| Biodiversity | Trade shifts land conversion to exporting regions. | Land-use change embodied in imports |
Puma and colleagues showed in 2015 that the global wheat and rice trade networks became more connected and more concentrated, which spreads small shocks but makes importers vulnerable to disruption in a few exporters. Export restrictions in 2022 were tracked in near real time by IFPRI’s export restrictions tracker.
A shock through an input-output economy.
A loss of output in one sector propagates through the technical coefficients to its suppliers and customers, and recovers at the rate you set; the coefficients are teaching values, not national accounts. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Black Sea region; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Sector hit first (position in the list)
- 0
- Size of the shock
- 30% of its output
- Duration of the shock
- 30 days
- Recovery rate
- 0.08 per day
- Days simulated
- 180 days
Readouts
- Output lost over the run
- 0.73% of a year’s output
- Total over direct (multiplier)
- 1.87 times
- Most affected other sector
- Transport
- Its peak inoperability
- 4.4%
Numbers, methods and sources
| Sector | Peak inoperability (%) | Output weight (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Farming | 33.86 | 14.4 |
| Fertiliser and inputs | 0.22 | 10.2 |
| Food processing | 0.21 | 18.5 |
| Transport | 4.36 | 22.7 |
| Wholesale and retail | 2.15 | 16.2 |
| Energy | 1.09 | 18.1 |
Methods
- Input-output analysis Leontief (1936); Miller and Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Cambridge University Press
- Inoperability input-output model Haimes and Jiang (2001), Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7
- Dynamic inoperability and recovery Lian and Haimes (2006), Systems Engineering 9
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Seaports Natural Earth
- Maritime chokepoints Nexus (named straits and canals at their published coordinates)
- Railways Natural Earth
- Major roads Natural Earth
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Food Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Food Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Water and Food Systems in Standards
- Published in Food Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Earth and Environmental Sciences in Academy
Market evidence and where it is published.
Trade and price transmission analyses are designed for the Strategic Systems series. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) forecasts no prices and advises on no trades; market monitoring at global level is done by the Agricultural Market Information System. Price series would carry NS-3 identifiers under the proposed Nexus Standards. Local market price data and records of trade policy changes with dates are the contributions that help most.
Model food trade and markets as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Food security and nutrition risk: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Famine
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Health-system overload (set off downstream)
- Chronic malnutrition (set off downstream)
- Acute malnutrition surge (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NRS-H57Hazard family: Humanitarian crises (NHS-1 soc.humanitarian)NRS-H61Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)NRS-H81Hazard family: Malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency (NHS-1 health.nutrition)NRS-H59Hazard family: Economic shocks and governance failure (NHS-1 soc.economic)NRS-N3Food and agriculture risk and resilienceNRS-N7Water-energy-food-health-biodiversity-infrastructure nexus coupling
Observation
- IPC acute food insecurity analyses (listed for reference)
- FEWS NET outlooks and data (listed for reference)
- FAO GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis tool (listed for reference)
- CHIRPS quasi-global gridded precipitation (listed for reference)
- Prevalence of undernourishment
- Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity
- Prevalence of stunting among children under 5 years of age
- Prevalence of malnutrition among children under 5 years of age
Example geography
- The Ganges and Brahmaputra Basin: 178 hexagonal cells
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cereal import dependency ratio | percent of domestic supply | annual | Food balance sheets | Published statistics |
| Supplier concentration of staple imports | Herfindahl-Hirschman index | annual | Bilateral trade statistics | ESTIMATED |
| FAO Food Price Index | index points against a base period | monthly | International export quotations | Published statistics |
| Indicator of food price anomalies (SDG 2.c.1) | standardised anomaly class | monthly | Domestic market price monitoring | Published statistics |
| Stocks-to-use ratio | percent of annual use | monthly | Supply and demand balances | ESTIMATED |
| Export restrictions in force | share of world calorie trade affected | weekly | Policy trackers | REPORTED |
| Dry bulk freight rate | index points | daily | Shipping market indices | OBSERVED |
| Food import bill against export earnings | ratio | annual | Trade and balance of payments statistics | Published statistics |
The sector signature of food trade and markets.
The sectors food trade and markets touches and how strongly they depend on each other: what a study has to observe and model together.
Signature
Food and its partners
Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).
W · E · I · F · H · B
- Sectors
- 4 of 6
- Relations
- 6 of 15
- Coupling
- 0.46 share of total
Strongest relations in play
- Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
- Water → Food · irrigation0.8
- Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
- Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| UN Comtrade | Bilateral trade flows by commodity and partner | Free with registration, terms per UN |
| CEPII BACI | Reconciled bilateral trade flows at product level | Open licence, attribution |
| AMIS Market Monitor (G20 Agricultural Market Information System) | Supply, demand, stocks and policy for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans | Free, attribution |
| FAO GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis tool | Domestic retail and wholesale staple prices by market | Free and open, attribution |
| IFPRI Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker | Export bans and licensing requirements by country and product | Free and open, attribution |
| FAOSTAT food balances and trade | Supply utilisation accounts and trade by commodity | Free and open, attribution |
| IMF PortWatch | Port calls and chokepoint transits from satellite vessel tracking | Free, terms per IMF |
How food trade and markets is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
System model
The couplings between the systems in food trade and markets: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Food Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Trade and agriculture ministries | Whether to diversify suppliers, adjust tariffs or negotiate long-term supply arrangements | Supplier concentration, route exposure and price transmission for each staple |
| Food reserve agencies and state importers | When to buy forward and how large a buffer to hold against a route or exporter shock | Stocks-to-use, freight and lead-time scenarios including chokepoint closures |
| Central banks and finance ministries | How a food price shock will pass into inflation and the balance of payments | Import bill scenarios and pass-through estimates by commodity |
| WTO members and regional trade bodies | How to discipline export restrictions and keep humanitarian food purchases exempt | Restriction trackers and their estimated effect on world prices |
Outputs this topic produces
- Agrifood dependency maps by commodity, supplier and route
- Chokepoint exposure profiles by importing country
- Estimates of world-to-local price transmission with uncertainty
- Trade policy shock scenarios
What experts ask.
Most countries rely on trade for at least part of their food, feed or fertiliser. For import-dependent countries, the resilience of their food system is decided partly abroad: in the harvests of exporting regions, the policies of their governments and the security of shipping routes. Understanding that exposure is a precondition for sensible reserve, sourcing and trade policy.
- How concentrated are a country’s imports of staples, fertiliser and feed, by supplier and by route?
- How do export restrictions, freight costs and exchange rates move domestic prices?
- What role do public and private stocks play in damping price spikes, and what are their costs?
- How do speculation, information gaps and policy announcements affect price volatility?
Drivers and processes.
Markets transmit shocks across borders, and policy responses can amplify them.
Few suppliers and routes
Dependence on one exporter or one corridor raises exposure to weather, conflict or policy in that place.
Export restrictions
When several exporters restrict sales at once, world prices can rise sharply even if global supply is adequate.
Currency and finance
Depreciation raises import costs; limited foreign exchange can delay purchases and payment.
How the evidence is built, and its limits.
- 01
Trade statistics
Customs and trade databases show flows and partners. They can be delayed, revised or inconsistent between reporters.
- 02
Price data
World and national price series show transmission; local market coverage is uneven.
- 03
Network analysis
Trade network models reveal concentration and potential cascades, but depend on assumptions about substitution.
- 04
Econometric models
Built with econometrics, they estimate price transmission and the effects of policy, with results that vary by period and market.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01EconometricsPrice transmission and market integration · Effects of trade policyApplied here
- 02Optimisation and operations researchHumanitarian supply and prepositioning · Strategic reserve designApplied here
- 03Forecasting and time-series analysisSeasonal production outlooks · Staple price forecasting · Anticipatory action triggersApplied here
- 04Spatial statistics and geostatisticsSmall-area estimation of food insecurity · Digital soil mappingApplied here
- 05Agricultural, soil and food scienceCrop simulation for seasonal yield risk · Yield gap and nutrient limitation analysisApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
- AMIS Market Monitor (Agricultural Market Information System, G20 initiative hosted by FAO)
- FAO Food Price Index (FAO)
- Food and fertiliser export restrictions tracker (IFPRI, from 2022)
- Puma and others, Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system, Environmental Research Letters 10 (2015)
- NS-3, NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) record UNIs, a proposed standard
Questions and answers.
Does trade make countries more or less food secure?
Why do export bans raise world prices?
What is a stocks-to-use ratio?
Which chokepoints matter most for food?
Does Food Nexus give trading or investment advice?
Is trade a source of risk or of resilience?
Which commodities are covered?
Do food reserves prevent price spikes?
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- EmailGateway GW-GCRISend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGCRISee every way to contributeThe contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
Bring a method, a dataset or a question.
Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
Legal documents.
Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.