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Spatial intelligenceObservations, models and their uncertainty in one view
Innovation and technological change
Technologies converge faster than institutions can evaluate them. AI meets biotechnology, computing meets the grid, satellites meet insurance. The same convergence creates capability and exposure at once. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) helps countries assess, test and adopt technology on evidence, not promise. Start with converging technologies or the frontier technology guide.
The working screen for innovation and technological change.
Innovation pipeline
GCRI · Stage gates · Example interface, not a record
By readiness level
Readiness criteria
pilot vs gate
Pilot issues
- I-1Data licence for pilot siteTo check1 d
- I-2Observer protocol signedDone6 d
GCRI · Innovation pipelineInnovation pipeline, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
The same technology can strengthen a system and expose it.
Capability and productivity
Better forecasting, earlier detection, resilient design, new industries and public services that reach more people.
Dependence and new failure
Concentration on a few providers, software supply chains, energy and water demand, misuse and failures that spread through shared platforms.
The capacity to decide
Ministries, regulators and operators need evidence on readiness and limits before they adopt, procure or govern a technology.
Draft to published version.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
The governance instruments that now shape how frontier technology is adopted.
| Instrument | Body and date | What it sets |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence Act | European Union, Regulation 2024/1689, applying in phases from 2025 | Risk-based obligations for AI systems and general-purpose AI models placed on the EU market |
| Framework Convention on AI and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law | Council of Europe, opened for signature in 2024 | The first binding international treaty on AI, for its parties |
| Recommendation on AI | OECD, 2019, revised 2024 | Principles adopted by member and adherent governments |
| Recommendation on the Ethics of AI | UNESCO, 2021 | Values and policy areas for all UNESCO member states |
| Post-quantum cryptography standards | NIST, 2024 | Algorithms for the migration away from vulnerable public-key schemes |
| Guidance framework for the responsible use of the life sciences | WHO, 2022 | Biorisk management across research and innovation |
These are cited as the frame institutions work in. GCRI interprets none of them for a client and claims conformity with none.
Hazards and exposure worldwide.
Flood water, population density, active fires and true-colour imagery across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 4
Hazards and exposure, for this page
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards and exposure, framed on World. Layers as NASA publishes them, each with its own date.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA HLS S30Sources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA HLS S30 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (11 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Active fires and thermal anomalies, last day: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
Assessment, testing and country capability, feeding the Exponential Technology series.
GCRI assesses technology claims, tests in controlled settings through Nexus Labs and helps countries build the capability to adopt technology on evidence. It funds no ventures and approves no products. Findings are designed for the Exponential Technology series and test results for the Labs Evidence series. Software and models would carry bills of materials and model cards under NS-12 of the proposed Nexus Standards. Researchers and providers can contribute evaluation protocols, negative test results and field evidence of adoption.
Model innovation and technological change as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Frontier technology risk standards: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification.
Hazards
- Cryptographically relevant quantum computer
- Dam failure
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Data breach (set off downstream)
- Mass account takeover (set off downstream)
- Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-12Software, model and AI/ML artifacts (supply chain, model cards, dataset sheets)NRS-H104Hazard family: Quantum technology and cryptographic transition (NHS-1 tech.quantum)NRS-T9Quantum technology and cryptographic transition riskNRS-T0Exponential technology risk and responsible innovationNRS-H109Hazard family: Energy-transition technology failures (NHS-1 tech.energy-transition)NRS-M19Method fabric: Cyber, AI and frontier technologyNRS-U12Universe platform profile: Foresight Nexus
Observation
- Our World in Data datasets (listed for reference)
- World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
- Research and development expenditure as a proportion of GDP
- Researchers per million inhabitants
Example geography
- North America: 243 H3 hexagons at resolution 2
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
From claims about technology to evidence about it.
- 01
Explain
Plain descriptions of what a technology does, its maturity and its dependencies, in the frontier technology guide.
- 02
Assess
Readiness, validation and capability claims examined against stated evidence, described under technology assessment.
- 03
Test
Controlled experiments and testbeds through Nexus Labs, where results are recorded with their method and limits. Testing is not accreditation.
- 04
Apply
Technology linked to productive capacity, health and public services, under science for economic and social development.
Governance and finance perspectives sit with the other pillars.
Principles for safe, rights-respecting use are on responsible technology. The Global Risk Forum (GRF) examines how institutions govern digital systems and AI under digital and AI governance. The Global Risk Alliance (GRA) examines what technology change means for financial institutions under financial technology and transformation.
GCRI does not endorse products or vendors, and no assessment is a certification or an approval for use.
Where this page's references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
- Regulation (EU) 2024/1689, the Artificial Intelligence Act
- Council of Europe Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law (CETS No. 225, 2024)
- OECD Recommendation of the Council on Artificial Intelligence (2019, revised 2024)
- UNESCO Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence (UNESCO, 2021)
- NIST FIPS 203, 204 and 205, post-quantum cryptography standards (NIST, 2024)
- WHO Global guidance framework for the responsible use of the life sciences (WHO, 2022)
- NS-12, Software, model and AI/ML artifacts, a proposed Nexus Standard
Pages in Innovation and technological change.
Questions and answers.
Does GCRI build technology?
Can a company have its product assessed?
Which technologies are covered?
How does this relate to the Nexus Reports programme?
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