Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

13 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Kenya’s risk runs between its rains and its grid
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 54 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.154 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Population, total” (SP.POP.TOTL), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
  2. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Life expectancy at birth, total (years)” (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  3. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)” (SH.DYN.MORT), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  4. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)” (SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  5. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Incidence of malaria (per 1,000 population at risk)” (SH.MLR.INCD.P3), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
  6. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Urban population (% of total population)” (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3
  7. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “GDP growth (annual %)” (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.
  8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “GDP (current US$)” (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.
  9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)” (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)” (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 8
  11. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)” (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
  12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources)” (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Access to electricity (% of population)” (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population)” (EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  15. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Forest area (% of land area)” (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
  16. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area)” (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  17. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters)” (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
  18. 18World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP)” (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  19. 19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate)” (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1
  20. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Cereal yield (kg per hectare)” (AG.YLD.CREL.KG), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  21. 21World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)” (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  22. 22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (Mt CO2e)” (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.
  23. 23World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (micrograms per cubic meter)” (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), Kenya, observation year 2023. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  24. 24World Bank (ed.), Kenya: Overview, country page (poverty 43.3% at $3.00 a day in 2025, public debt 70.6% of GDP, high risk of debt distress). World Bank, Washington DC, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
  25. 25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  26. 26Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the Financial Year ended 30th June 2022. EPRA, Nairobi, 2022, observation year FY2021/22, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  27. 27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  28. 28Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: country assessment.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  29. 29Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: targets, 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2035, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  30. 30International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper series NGDP_RPCH, PCPIPCH and GGXWDG_NGDP, Kenya, observation years 2023–2027. IMF, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  31. 31International Monetary Fund (ed.), Kenya and the IMF, country page (last Article IV Executive Board consultation 17 January 2024; outstanding purchases and loans SDR 2,803.76 million at 31 March 2026). IMF, Washington DC, observation year 2026, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  33. 33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  34. 34Central Bank of Kenya (ed.), Agriculture Survey, May 2026, quoting the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Economic Survey 2026. CBK, Nairobi, May 2026, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  35. 35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
  36. 36International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Kenya. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, September 2025, observation years 2017–2024, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UN-Water (ed.), SDG 6 Data Portal, Kenya country snapshot (6.2.1a safely managed sanitation 2024; 6.4.2 water stress 2023; 6.5.1 IWRM implementation 2023). UN-Water, Geneva, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  38. 38Government of Kenya (ed.), National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) III 2023–2027, read through the summary record of the Climate Change Laws of the World database (Grantham Research Institute); the plan itself was not opened. Nairobi, 2023, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census. KNBS, Nairobi, 2019. The site did not respond at evidence close; no census figure is used in this edition. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Economic Survey 2026. KNBS, Nairobi, April 2026. Figures attributed to it are read through the Central Bank of Kenya survey [34]. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (ed.), Eastern Africa: Heavy rains and flooding, Flash Update 4, 30 May 2024. OCHA, Geneva, 2024. Figure of 315 deaths at 29 May 2024 taken from a search result summary; the page returned an access error. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, 2016, as amended in 2023. Nairobi. Title and status from memory and search summaries; check the text and the Kenya Gazette. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change (Carbon Markets) Regulations, 2024, Legal Notice 84. Nairobi, 2024. Title and effect from search summaries; the page returned no text. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Water Act, 2016. Nairobi, 2016. Title and status from memory. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Wildlife Conservation and Management Act, 2013. Nairobi, 2013. Title and status from memory. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Kenya’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (2031–2035). Submission to the UNFCCC, 30 April 2025. Title from a database record; target figures are read through [27] and [29]. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Imperial College London and partners (World Weather Attribution), rapid analysis of the late-2023 rains in the Horn of Africa. December 2023. Taken from a search result summary. Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, 2022. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
  49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Kenya Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank Group, Washington DC; year not confirmed. The page was reached only as a catalogue listing. Cited in chapter 6
  50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
  51. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
  52. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
  53. 53S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  54. 54S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Kenya Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
KENNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-NAT-KEN-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. KEN edition Reports Kenya 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; KEN is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Kenya Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Kenya’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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