Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables15 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Europe’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry, hot summer across the Rhine corridor and the Alpine grid
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Europe, as the series reads it, is five member countries (France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Switzerland) that share river basins, power grids and gas supply, and that sit beside a union with its own subject in the series. The European Union had 450.6 million residents on 1 January 20251. Its net greenhouse gas emissions were 2,786 Mt CO₂e in 2024, about 40% below 1990 on the inventory basis and 37% on the basis the Climate Law uses for 2030644. Renewables supplied 25.2% of gross final energy and 47.5% of electricity in the EU in 202434. The EU imported 37.8 billion cubic metres of gas from Russia in 2024, and a regulation now phases those imports out by September 20271324. Storms and floods in 2024 affected an estimated 413,000 people and caused at least 335 deaths9. An estimated 62,775 deaths were linked to heat in summer 202422. Only 37% of surface water bodies reported good or high ecological status in 202110. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state from sources that could be read at evidence close. Where a regional dataset could not be read, it shows as a designed empty state that names the source and the blocker. The edition decides nothing and ranks no member country.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Europe baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. EU net emissions were 2,786 Mt CO₂e in 2024, about 40% below 1990. Member totals are on different bases.56

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. A 2040 target of 90% below 1990 is in the Climate Law; the renewable energy target for 2030 is 42.5%.2331

    What are the targets?Reported

  3. Renewables supplied 47.5% in the EU in 2024; shares differ widely by member.3

    How is electricity supplied?Reported

  4. Russian imports were 37.8 billion m³ in 2024 and are being phased out by law. Storage at 1 November 2026 is not bound.132442

    How exposed is gas supply?Reported

  5. Floods in 2024 affected 413,000 people; heat in summer 2024 was linked to about 62,775 deaths.922

    How severe were recent floods and heat?Reported

  6. 37% of surface water bodies reached good or high ecological status in 2021.10

    How healthy are Europe’s waters?Reported

  7. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound in this edition.9

    Who carries flood losses?Not bound

  8. Low river flow, heat load and grid stress coinciding across member borders. SCN-EUR-DRY-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

Storms and floods in 2024 affected an estimated 413,000 people and caused at least 335 deaths in Europe; Storm Boris produced flood peaks at least twice the average annual maximum along 8,500 km of rivers.

Figure S.1Deaths from storms and floods in Europe, 2024
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Europe, at least335
Valencia province, at least232

Source: Copernicus and WMO European State of the Climate 20249. Valencia is outside the member set and is shown as the largest single event.

A river flood is a regional event. Storm Boris moved from the Danube to the Elbe and the Oder over five days and touched Germany and Italy among the members. Flood response, rail, power and insurance therefore need to be read across borders9.

S.4At a glance

450.6million

EU population, 1 January 20251

69.3million

United Kingdom population, mid-202414

3,017Mt CO₂e

EU emissions excluding land use, 20245

47.5%

renewables share of EU electricity, 20243

37.8billion m³

gas imported from Russia, EU, 202413

5members

France, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom, Switzerland

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of European risk: heat, flood and dry years act on water, energy and health together.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a flood warning, a heat day or a price change.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound, and macroprudential work on climate risk exists.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Europe publishes strong statistics on emissions, energy and climate, and a clear legal frame for 2040.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Europe’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026 read across France, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom, Switzerland. It reads the shared basins and grids that no single member controls, and sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a regional risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and each member’s ownership of its own edition is unaffected. It does not stand for the European Union, which is a separate subject in the series.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline: new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Eurostat (ed.), Population on 1 January by age and sex (demo_pjan), EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025 (EU net emissions 37% below 1990 on the Climate Law basis, from search summaries). EEA, Copenhagen, November 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 4Eurostat (ed.), 25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables (news item). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 5Eurostat (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge), total excluding LULUCF, EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target; entry into force 7 April 2026, from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023/2413 amending the renewable energy directive (2030 target of 42.5%; the target was also stated on the Eurostat page opened). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Gas Infrastructure Europe (ed.), AGSI+ gas storage transparency platform (EU fill level at 1 November 2026 not read). GIE, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 14Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 (released 26 September 2025). ONS, Newport. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Europe Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Europe’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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