Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables16 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Europe’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Health
    5. 2.5 Water
    6. 2.6 Food
    7. 2.7 Biodiversity
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry, hot summer across the Rhine corridor and the Alpine grid
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

Storms and floods in 2024 affected an estimated 413,000 people and caused at least 335 deaths in Europe; Storm Boris produced flood peaks at least twice the average annual maximum along 8,500 km of rivers.

Figure 2.1Deaths from storms and floods in Europe, 2024
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Europe, at least335
Valencia province, at least232

Source: Copernicus and WMO European State of the Climate 20249. Valencia is outside the member set and is shown as the largest single event.

Implication

A river flood is a regional event. Storm Boris moved from the Danube to the Elbe and the Oder over five days and touched Germany and Italy among the members. Flood response, rail, power and insurance therefore need to be read across borders9.

What would move it

Seasonal rainfall outlooks, river-flow forecasts, flood-warning exchange between member authorities and insured-loss series would each move this finding. The loss series by member is not bound9.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    EU net greenhouse gas emissions were 2,786 Mt CO₂e in 2024, about 40% below 1990 and about 3% below 2023 on the inventory basis; on the Climate Law basis the cut was 37%.644

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    The amended European Climate Law sets a binding 2040 target of 90% below 1990 and entered into force on 7 April 2026.2325

  3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

    Storms and floods in 2024 affected an estimated 413,000 people and caused at least 335 deaths; Storm Boris produced flood peaks at least twice the average annual maximum along 8,500 km of rivers.9

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Renewables supplied 25.2% of gross final energy and 47.5% of electricity in the EU in 2024; Germany reached 54.1% of electricity, Italy 40.7% and France 31.3%.34

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    The EU imported 37.8 billion cubic metres of gas from Russia in 2024; a regulation phases out Russian LNG from 2027 and pipeline gas by 30 September 2027.1324

  3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

    The ENTSO-E expert panel found that the 28 April 2025 blackout in continental Spain and Portugal came from many interacting factors, with voltage and reactive-power control central.12

2.4Health

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

    About 62,775 deaths were linked to heat in 32 European countries in summer 2024, of which about 19,000 in Italy.22

2.5Water

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

    In 2021, 37% of surface water bodies reached good or high ecological status and 29% good chemical status; 77% of groundwater area was in good chemical status.10

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009

    In 2025, 70% of rivers in the European region had below-average annual flows, and wildfires burnt the largest area on record.78

2.6Food

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-010

    The October 2025 outlook put EU grain maize 3% and sunflower 10% below the five-year average, with losses concentrated in south-eastern Europe.46

2.7Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    Terrestrial protected areas covered 26.4% of the EU in 2023: Germany 39.1%, France 28.3% and Italy 21.4%.45

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a dry, hot summer in which low river flow, heat load and grid stress coincide across member borders. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025 (EU net emissions 37% below 1990 on the Climate Law basis, from search summaries). EEA, Copenhagen, November 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target; entry into force 7 April 2026, from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 4Eurostat (ed.), 25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables (news item). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 8UNVERIFIED, not opened: Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, full report; burnt area of about 1.03 million hectares taken from a search summary. ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), MARS Bulletin: crop monitoring in Europe, October 2025 (grain maize 3% and sunflower 10% below the five-year average, from search summaries). JRC, Ispra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 45Eurostat (ed.), Surface of the terrestrial protected areas (sdg_15_20), EU27, Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Europe Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Europe’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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