Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables21 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Europe’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry, hot summer across the Rhine corridor and the Alpine grid
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Member countries: the baseline regional chapter
    2. 8.2 Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter
    3. 8.3 Hub list: the baseline regional chapter
    4. 8.4 Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The five member countries named in the series registry, read side by side on the same indicators. The European Union is a separate subject: its totals appear only as a reference group, because the United Kingdom and Switzerland are outside it.

450.6million

EU population, 1 January 20251

3,017Mt CO₂e

EU emissions excluding land use, 20245

25.2%

EU renewables share of final energy, 20243

Table 8.1Member system cards at baseline
MemberState at baselineEvidenceStatus
Francepopulation 68.9 million (provisional); emissions 367.0 Mt; renewables 23.2% of final energy and 31.3% of electricity; 28.3% of land protected13545Reported
Germanypopulation 83.6 million; emissions 649.8 Mt; renewables 22.5% and 54.1%; 39.1% protected; Boris floods in 2024135945Reported
Italypopulation 58.9 million; emissions 363.5 Mt; renewables 19.4% and 40.7%; 21.4% protected; about 19,000 heat-linked deaths in 20241352245Reported
United Kingdompopulation 69.3 million (mid-2024); net territorial emissions 367 Mt (2025 provisional); renewables 52.5% of electricity (2025)141618Reported
Switzerlandpopulation 9.05 million; emissions 40.1 Mt; electricity statistics for 2025 not bound1521Reported
EU reference groupEU27 totals: 450.6 million people; 3,017.2 Mt; 25.2% renewables135Reported

Couplings across members

  • CLI → WAT across the Rhine corridor (Switzerland, Germany, France)
  • ENE → ENE through shared grids and gas supply
  • HLT ← CLI heat across Italy and its neighbours
  • FIN ← CLI losses carried by insurers across borders

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • member emissions on one basis including land use
  • flood loss and heat death series by member
  • Swiss and United Kingdom protected-area shares

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared basins, grids and gas supply carry risk across member borders. This chapter names each system, the members involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

185,000km²

Rhine basin, as reported19

801,463km²

Danube basin20

10.3GW

Great Britain interconnector capacity17

Table 8.2Shared basins and seas
BasinMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
RhineSwitzerland, Germany, France; nine states in the basin19Reported
DanubeGermany; Italy and Switzerland shares not bound; 19 countries in the basin20Reported
RhôneFrance and Switzerland; no source read32NOT BOUND
PoItaly and Switzerland; no source read33NOT BOUND
Table 8.3Shared grids and gas networks
GridMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
Continental Europe gridFrance, Germany, Italy and Switzerland operate in one synchronous area; capacity and flow series not bound43Inferred
Great Britain linksabout 10.3 GW to France, Norway and Denmark; another Ofgem page gives 9.8 GW17Reported
Gas supplyEU imports from Russia 37.8 billion m³ in 2024; phase-out law in effect1324Reported
Gas storagefill level at 1 November 2026 not bound42NOT BOUND
Blackout analoguevoltage control failure spread across the Iberian system in April 202512Reported

Couplings through shared systems

  • CLI → WAT → ENE low flow into cooling water and hydropower
  • INF → ENE a grid fault crossing borders
  • TRD → ENE gas route change into power prices
  • WAT → FOO irrigation and navigation

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • Rhine low-water days and navigation depth
  • Danube shares of Germany, Italy and Switzerland
  • cross-border flows and capacity
  • gas storage depth

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs
Paris · Geneva
Desks with a remit
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · GRX
Registry record
NR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Table 8.4Member hubs as the registry names them
HubMemberRegistry roleMember edition
ParisFranceG20 · hubdrafted (pack in review)
not named in the registryGermanyG20drafted (pack in review)
not named in the registryItalyG20drafted (pack in review)
not named in the registryUnited KingdomG20drafted (pack in review)
GenevaSwitzerlandSeat (Swiss Nexus)in preparation

What a hub does in this series

  • Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
  • Hub contact points are not named at baseline
  • The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read Europe as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Table 8.5The regional pathway at baseline
StageWhat exists todayStateNext
Regional hubsParis and Geneva are named in the series registryNAMEDterms set from Q1 2027
DesksGCRI, GRF and GRX hold the remit for regional editions in the registryNAMEDwork plan for Q1 2027
Evidence graphmember and regional findings share identifiersPREPAREDfirst sealed cut NQ-REG-EUR-2027-Q1
Member editionsFrance drafted (pack in review); Germany drafted (pack in review); Italy drafted (pack in review); United Kingdom drafted (pack in review); Switzerland in preparationMIXEDreview through the chain before release

Open at baseline

  • Constitution of any regional council or working group
  • Hub terms of reference and contact points
  • The route to the European Union edition in the series

Decisions that rest elsewhere

  • Energy, water and health policy rest with national and union authorities
  • Union law is made by the EU institutions; this edition cites it and decides nothing
  • The EU subject has its own edition and is not merged with Europe on code

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Eurostat (ed.), Population on 1 January by age and sex (demo_pjan), EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 5Eurostat (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge), total excluding LULUCF, EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 45Eurostat (ed.), Surface of the terrestrial protected areas (sdg_15_20), EU27, Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 14Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 (released 26 September 2025). ONS, Newport. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 16UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2025 UK greenhouse gas emissions: provisional figures, statistical release (net territorial emissions 367 MtCO2e, 2% below 2024, 54% below 1990, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 18UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Energy Trends: UK electricity 2025 (renewables 52.5% of generation, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 21UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Federal Office of Energy (ed.), Swiss overall energy statistics 2025, electricity (extract carries an amendment dated 19 June 2026). SFOE, Bern. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 19UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ed.), the Rhine river basin (about 185,000 km2, about 60 million inhabitants, nine states; published figures vary; the page opened returned not found). ICPR, Koblenz. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 20UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ed.), Danube river basin (801,463 km2, 19 countries; the page opened was refused). ICPDR, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 17UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ofgem (ed.), Electricity interconnectors (Great Britain capacity about 10.3 GW, another Ofgem page gives 9.8 GW; the page opened did not state capacity). Ofgem, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes. UNECE, Geneva, 1992. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Second Assessment of Transboundary Rivers, Lakes and Groundwaters. UNECE, Geneva, 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ENTSO-E (ed.), Transparency platform and Continental Europe synchronous area data (cross-border flows and capacity not read). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Gas Infrastructure Europe (ed.), AGSI+ gas storage transparency platform (EU fill level at 1 November 2026 not read). GIE, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Europe Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Europe’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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