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Risks and capability

Four regional risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

5 min read0 figures1 table17 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Europe’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Dry, hot summer across the Rhine corridor and the Alpine grid
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-EUR-CLI-001

    Cross-border river flood and storm season

    Driver
    extreme rainfall on saturated catchments
    Exposure
    river corridors and floodplain towns
    Vulnerability
    ageing flood defences not bound
    Capacity
    flood warning exchange; documented9
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, FIN, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

  2. InferredEQL 3RSK-EUR-WAT-002

    Low flow on shared rivers in a dry year

    Driver
    low rainfall and high summer demand
    Exposure
    navigation, cooling water, farming
    Vulnerability
    dependence on a few river corridors
    Capacity
    basin commissions1920; performance not bound
    Cascade
    WAT → ENE, FOO
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-EUR-HLT-003

    Heat overload of health services

    Driver
    heat waves
    Exposure
    older adults; outdoor workers
    Vulnerability
    limited cooling; workforce not bound
    Capacity
    health system capacity not bound22
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    Horizon
    seasonal

  4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-EUR-ENE-004

    Gas or grid disruption during the transition

    Driver
    supply route change, price spike or a voltage fault
    Exposure
    power, industry, heating
    Vulnerability
    storage depth and cross-border flows not bound
    Capacity
    transmission operators and the ENTSO-E panel recommendations12
    Cascade
    TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSEuropean Climate Law in force, amended in 20262325
Monitoring and observationEXISTSEurostat, EEA and Copernicus series are published567
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: weather and flood-warning services · blocker: not retrieved
Preparedness and planningLISTEDEuropean climate risk assessment published11; critical entities directive in force29; delivery not bound
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: gas storage platform42 · blocker: not retrieved
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: after-action records for flood and heat events · blocker: not retrieved
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDcritical entities and network security directives apply2930; performance not bound
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: recovery agency and insurer records · blocker: not retrieved
AdaptationLISTEDwater resilience strategy published47; delivery not bound
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: income-support and disaster-payment records · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: insurer and reinsurer loss data · blocker: not retrieved; macroprudential framing exists41
Institutional coordinationEXISTSbasin commissions and the transmission operators’ association exist121920; performance not bound
Technical infrastructureNOT BOUNDsource: asset-condition registers · blocker: not published
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: health and emergency workforce registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityEXISTSpeer-reviewed heat and compound-event research is published2235
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 19UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ed.), the Rhine river basin (about 185,000 km2, about 60 million inhabitants, nine states; published figures vary; the page opened returned not found). ICPR, Koblenz. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 20UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ed.), Danube river basin (801,463 km2, 19 countries; the page opened was refused). ICPDR, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target; entry into force 7 April 2026, from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 5Eurostat (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge), total excluding LULUCF, EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 11European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment (EEA Report 01/2024, 11 March 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Gas Infrastructure Europe (ed.), AGSI+ gas storage transparency platform (EU fill level at 1 November 2026 not read). GIE, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity across the Union. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. European Commission, Brussels, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Central Bank and European Systemic Risk Board (eds.), Towards macroprudential frameworks for managing climate risk. ECB, Frankfurt, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Europe Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Europe’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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