Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Europe’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry, hot summer across the Rhine corridor and the Alpine grid
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 50 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.150 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Eurostat (ed.), Population on 1 January by age and sex (demo_pjan), EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Eurostat (ed.), EU population up by 1.1 million on 1 January 2025 (news release, 450.4 million). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 11 July 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  3. 3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4Eurostat (ed.), 25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables (news item). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  5. 5Eurostat (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge), total excluding LULUCF, EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
  8. 8UNVERIFIED, not opened: Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, full report; burnt area of about 1.03 million hectares taken from a search summary. ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  9. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  10. 10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  11. 11European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment (EEA Report 01/2024, 11 March 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
  12. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 (released 26 September 2025). ONS, Newport. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2025 UK greenhouse gas emissions: provisional figures (statistics page, released 2 April 2026; figures not on the page opened). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  16. 16UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2025 UK greenhouse gas emissions: provisional figures, statistical release (net territorial emissions 367 MtCO2e, 2% below 2024, 54% below 1990, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ofgem (ed.), Electricity interconnectors (Great Britain capacity about 10.3 GW, another Ofgem page gives 9.8 GW; the page opened did not state capacity). Ofgem, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Energy Trends: UK electricity 2025 (renewables 52.5% of generation, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ed.), the Rhine river basin (about 185,000 km2, about 60 million inhabitants, nine states; published figures vary; the page opened returned not found). ICPR, Koblenz. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ed.), Danube river basin (801,463 km2, 19 countries; the page opened was refused). ICPDR, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Federal Office of Energy (ed.), Swiss overall energy statistics 2025, electricity (extract carries an amendment dated 19 June 2026). SFOE, Bern. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  22. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  23. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target; entry into force 7 April 2026, from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2023/956 establishing a carbon border adjustment mechanism. Official Journal of the European Union, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive 2000/60/EC establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy. Official Journal of the European Communities, 2000. Observation year 2000. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity across the Union. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023/2413 amending the renewable energy directive (2030 target of 42.5%; the target was also stated on the Eurostat page opened). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes. UNECE, Geneva, 1992. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Second Assessment of Transboundary Rivers, Lakes and Groundwaters. UNECE, Geneva, 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Gas Market Report (latest quarterly edition at evidence close). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Central Bank and European Systemic Risk Board (eds.), Towards macroprudential frameworks for managing climate risk. ECB, Frankfurt, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Gas Infrastructure Europe (ed.), AGSI+ gas storage transparency platform (EU fill level at 1 November 2026 not read). GIE, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 8
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ENTSO-E (ed.), Transparency platform and Continental Europe synchronous area data (cross-border flows and capacity not read). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025 (EU net emissions 37% below 1990 on the Climate Law basis, from search summaries). EEA, Copenhagen, November 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2
  45. 45Eurostat (ed.), Surface of the terrestrial protected areas (sdg_15_20), EU27, Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), MARS Bulletin: crop monitoring in Europe, October 2025 (grain maize 3% and sunflower 10% below the five-year average, from search summaries). JRC, Ispra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. European Commission, Brussels, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  49. 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Editions 2026 for France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom (draft packs; the Switzerland edition is in preparation). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Europe Regional Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 regional edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-REGIONAL-EUR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
REG-EURNR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-REG-EUR-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. REG-EUR edition Reports Europe 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; REG-EUR is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Europe Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Europe’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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