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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 Regional Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Europe’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry, hot summer across the Rhine corridor and the Alpine grid
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a dry, hot summer load shared rivers, health services and the grid across member borders?

    INI-EUR-CLI-01 · compound summer stress; first output: dependency graph for the Rhine corridor.

  2. A-02

    How deep are gas stocks and how diverse are supply routes after the Russian gas phase-out?

    INI-EUR-ENE-02 · gas supply resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.

  3. A-03

    How do low flows on shared basins reach navigation, cooling water and farming?

    INI-EUR-WAT-03 · shared basins; first output: basin performance note for the Rhine.

  4. A-04

    How many deaths can be attributed to heat, by member and year?

    INI-EUR-HLT-04 · heat and health; first output: attribution baseline for three members.

  5. A-05

    Where do flood and storm losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?

    INI-EUR-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-member loss table.

  6. A-06

    What is the conservation status of habitats and how is it measured across members?

    INI-EUR-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.

  7. A-07

    How exposed are crop output and food access to concurrent drought, heat and price shocks?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

    Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-EUR-CLI-01Compound summer stress: rivers, heat and gridInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-EUR-ENE-02Gas supply and grid resilienceInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-EUR-WAT-03Shared basins in dry yearsInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-EUR-HLT-04Heat and health attributionInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-EUR-FIN-05Flood and storm protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-EUR-CLI-01aRhine corridor compound summer dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-EUR-2027-01Rivers, heat and grid Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The Europe regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read Europe as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    National Foundries

    continuous national evidence environments

    PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

  2. 02

    National Models and Portfolios

    each country as a system of systems

    CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

  3. 03

    Quarterly national reports

    State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

    BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

  4. 04

    Regional aggregation

    Europe as one of ten regional clusters

    THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

  5. 05

    Global sector and strategic models

    GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

    49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

  6. 06

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

  7. 07

    Global Report

    this series

    BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 regional annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-EUR-2027-01 · Rivers, heat and grid Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
CLI-006 · floods 2024INI-EUR-CLI-01compound summer graphPUBLIC
ENE-004 · gas importsINI-EUR-ENE-02gas supply resiliencePUBLIC
ENE-005 · blackoutINI-EUR-ENE-02grid resiliencePUBLIC
WAT-008 · water statusINI-EUR-WAT-03shared basinsPUBLIC
HLT-007 · heat deathsINI-EUR-HLT-04heat and health attributionPUBLIC
BIO-011 · protected areasINI-EUR-BIO-01condition indicatorPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-EUR-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Copernicus climate and river-flow recordsCopernicus Climate Change ServicemonthlyCLI and WAT findings
Gas storage and flowsGas Infrastructure EuropedailyENE-004
Electricity flows and eventsENTSO-EhourlyENE-005
PopulationEurostat and ONSannualprofile
Greenhouse gas inventoriesEEA and DESNZannualCLI-001
Water body statusEEAsix-yearlyWAT-008
Crop monitoringJRCmonthly in seasonFOO-010

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-EUR-001Record of 2024 floods9CORROBORATEDCLI · INFrisk object RSK-EUR-CLI-001
SIG-EUR-002Summer 2024 heat deaths22CORROBORATEDCLI · HLTresearch question A-04
SIG-EUR-003Low flows in 20257CORROBORATEDWAT · ENEresearch question A-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Europe Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Europe’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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