- Europe 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Europe’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Dry, hot summer across the Rhine corridor and the Alpine grid
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Germany’s share of EU emissions excluding land use, 2024 | 649.77 ÷ 3,017.19 | 21.5% |
| (2) | France’s share of EU emissions excluding land use, 2024 | 367.02 ÷ 3,017.19 | 12.2% |
| (3) | Italy’s share of EU emissions excluding land use, 2024 | 363.49 ÷ 3,017.19 | 12.0% |
| (4) | Italy’s share of heat-linked deaths in summer 2024 (about) | 19,000 ÷ 62,775 | 30.3% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at regional scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-EUR-REGIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent Europe as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
11strong
documented within one season
5moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-REG-EUR-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 50 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-REG-EUR-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 regional annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Regional System Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 1 Jan 2025 | not recorded | annual | annual |
| UK population | mid-2024 | Sep 2025 | annual | annual |
| Renewable shares | 2024 | Dec 2025 | annual | annual |
| Greenhouse gases, EU | 2024 | Apr 2026 | annual | annual |
| UK emissions | 2025 provisional | Apr 2026 | annual | final in Feb 2027 |
| Russian gas imports | 2024 | not recorded | annual | annual |
| Water body status | 2021 | Oct 2024 | six-yearly | next planning cycle |
| European State of the Climate | 2025 | Apr 2026 | annual | annual |
| Protected areas | 2023 | not recorded | annual | annual |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Climate and hazards | PARTIAL | losses by member |
| Energy | PARTIAL | gas storage; cross-border flows |
| Water | PARTIAL | Rhine low-water series |
| Food | THIN | cereal output; food access |
| Health | PARTIAL | heat deaths in 2025 |
| Biodiversity | THIN | habitat conservation status |
| Finance | THIN | insured and uninsured losses |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| EU gas storage fill level at 1 November 2026 | Gas Infrastructure Europe transparency platform42 | not retrieved; the figures found in search were secondary and conflicted |
| Cereal production for 2024 and 2025, EU and members | Eurostat crop production dataset | the query returned no values on 2026-11-03 |
| Swiss electricity production and hydropower share for 2025 | Swiss Federal Office of Energy overall energy statistics21 | the 2025 table carries an amendment dated 19 June 2026 and could not be reconciled |
| Heat-related deaths in summer 2025 | follow-up to the summer 2024 estimate22 | not found at evidence close |
| Habitats in favourable conservation status, 2019 to 2024 cycle | EEA State of nature and the Article 17 reporting portal | headline percentages not found at evidence close |
| Terrestrial protected-area share for Switzerland and the United Kingdom | Eurostat protected-area series45 and national statistics | Eurostat returned no value for Switzerland; the United Kingdom is outside the series |
| Share of the UK population aged 65 or over | ONS mid-2024 estimates14 | the release page did not state it |
| Member emissions on one basis including land use | national inventories submitted to the UNFCCC | bases differ across5,6 and16 |
| Rhine low-water days and navigation depth | Rhine commission and national waterway agencies19 | not retrieved |
| Danube catchment share of Germany, Italy and Switzerland | Danube commission country tables20 | country shares not read |
| Insured and uninsured losses of the 2024 floods by member | insurers’ associations and reinsurers | not retrieved; the damage total in9 is a Europe-wide estimate |
| Cross-border flows and capacity in the Continental Europe grid | ENTSO-E transparency platform43 | not retrieved |
| Capability rungs: early warning, reserves, response, recovery, social protection, infrastructure, workforce | civil protection, weather services, utilities and ministries | not reviewed by evidence close |
A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources
Issued by Eurostat. Annual. Role: binds the population figures in the profile and regional reading. The EU figure is provisional and differs from the 450.4 million in the July 2025 release [2].
EVD-EUR-001
Population on 1 January 20251
Issued by the European Environment Agency. Six-yearly cycle, 2021 data. Role: binds the water status findings. Coverage is the members that reported to the agency.
EVD-EUR-002
Europe’s state of water 202410
| Dimension | EVD-EUR-001 | EVD-EUR-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | EU, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland; the United Kingdom from its own statistics office | member states that reported to the agency |
| Timeliness | about 6 months after the reference date | about 3 years after the reference year |
| Revision | provisional flags on EU and France | next planning cycle |
| Method transparency | published methodology | published methodology |
| External validation | not assessed in this edition | not assessed in this edition |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| CBAM | Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism |
| DESNZ | Department for Energy Security and Net Zero |
| EEA | European Environment Agency |
| ENTSO-E | European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity |
| EU | European Union |
| GIE | Gas Infrastructure Europe |
| ICPR | International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine |
| ICPDR | International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River |
| JRC | Joint Research Centre |
| LNG | liquefied natural gas |
| LULUCF | land use, land-use change and forestry |
| ONS | Office for National Statistics |
| UNECE | United Nations Economic Commission for Europe |
| WFD | Water Framework Directive |
| WMO | World Meteorological Organization |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the regional indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-EUR-DRY-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Member-country notes | atlas cards for every member country | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: emissions excluding land use
- Construct
- annual greenhouse gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry, and without memo items
- Unit
- Mt CO₂e
- Scope
- calendar year
- Source
- Eurostat greenhouse gas emissions dataset5
- Revision
- revised by the issuer; not tracked here
- Known limits
- differs from the EEA net inventory figure, which includes land use6
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Gas Infrastructure Europe (ed.), AGSI+ gas storage transparency platform (EU fill level at 1 November 2026 not read). GIE, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Federal Office of Energy (ed.), Swiss overall energy statistics 2025, electricity (extract carries an amendment dated 19 June 2026). SFOE, Bern. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45Eurostat (ed.), Surface of the terrestrial protected areas (sdg_15_20), EU27, Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 (released 26 September 2025). ONS, Newport. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5Eurostat (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge), total excluding LULUCF, EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2025 UK greenhouse gas emissions: provisional figures, statistical release (net territorial emissions 367 MtCO2e, 2% below 2024, 54% below 1990, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ed.), the Rhine river basin (about 185,000 km2, about 60 million inhabitants, nine states; published figures vary; the page opened returned not found). ICPR, Koblenz. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ed.), Danube river basin (801,463 km2, 19 countries; the page opened was refused). ICPDR, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ENTSO-E (ed.), Transparency platform and Continental Europe synchronous area data (cross-border flows and capacity not read). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1Eurostat (ed.), Population on 1 January by age and sex (demo_pjan), EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back