- Europe 2026
- Chapter 5
Dry, hot summer across the Rhine corridor and the Alpine grid
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Europe’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Dry, hot summer across the Rhine corridor and the Alpine grid
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
5.1Assumptions
Scenario SCN-EUR-DRY-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.
- Baseline
- the 2026 reference state in this edition
- Drivers
- an extended heat wave in a dry year, with low flow on shared rivers and high power demand
- Analogues
- 2025 river flows7; summer 2024 heat deaths22; Iberian blackout 2025 for grid failure12
- Interventions
- none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case
- Run state
- narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027
5.2The cascade, step by step
- 1
CLI → WAT
low flows cut navigation and cooling water on shared rivers
rivers 20257
- 2
CLI → HLT
heat raises hospital stays and deaths
summer 202422
- 3
ENE → INF
peak cooling demand coincides with constrained generation
no analogue bound
- 4
INF → all
a voltage fault spreads across a synchronous grid
- 5
HLT → FIN
losses fall on households, insurers and budgets
loss series not bound
- 6
FIN → recovery
rebuilding slows where cover is thin
loss series not bound
5.3The scenario as a table of steps
How the shock in scenario SCN-EUR-DRY-01 would travel through Europe’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Climate to water | Low flows cut navigation and cooling water on shared rivers. Analogue or source: rivers 2025 [7]. | Edition REG-EUR, scenario SCN-EUR-DRY-01, step 1 |
| 02 Climate to health | Heat raises hospital stays and deaths. Analogue or source: summer 2024 [22]. | Edition REG-EUR, scenario SCN-EUR-DRY-01, step 2 |
| 03 Energy to infrastructure | Peak cooling demand coincides with constrained generation. Analogue or source: no analogue bound. | Edition REG-EUR, scenario SCN-EUR-DRY-01, step 3 |
| 04 Infrastructure to all | A voltage fault spreads across a synchronous grid. Analogue or source: Iberian blackout 2025 [12]. | Edition REG-EUR, scenario SCN-EUR-DRY-01, step 4 |
| 05 Health to finance | Losses fall on households, insurers and budgets. Analogue or source: loss series not bound. | Edition REG-EUR, scenario SCN-EUR-DRY-01, step 5 |
| 06 Finance to recovery | Rebuilding slows where cover is thin. Analogue or source: loss series not bound. | Edition REG-EUR, scenario SCN-EUR-DRY-01, step 6 |
A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Europe 2026, scenario SCN-EUR-DRY-01 (2026); Europe 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back