Europe Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Europe’s Interdependent Systems.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Europe baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. EU net emissions were 2,786 Mt CO₂e in 2024, about 40% below 1990. Member totals are on different bases.⁵⁶

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. A 2040 target of 90% below 1990 is in the Climate Law; the renewable energy target for 2030 is 42.5%.²³³¹

   What are the targets?Reported

3. Renewables supplied 47.5% in the EU in 2024; shares differ widely by member.³

   How is electricity supplied?Reported

4. Russian imports were 37.8 billion m³ in 2024 and are being phased out by law. Storage at 1 November 2026 is not bound.¹³²⁴⁴²

   How exposed is gas supply?Reported

5. Floods in 2024 affected 413,000 people; heat in summer 2024 was linked to about 62,775 deaths.⁹²²

   How severe were recent floods and heat?Reported

6. 37% of surface water bodies reached good or high ecological status in 2021.¹⁰

   How healthy are Europe’s waters?Reported

7. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound in this edition.⁹

   Who carries flood losses?Not bound

8. Low river flow, heat load and grid stress coinciding across member borders. SCN-EUR-DRY-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

Storms and floods in 2024 affected an estimated 413,000 people and caused at least 335 deaths in Europe; Storm Boris produced flood peaks at least twice the average annual maximum along 8,500 km of rivers.

A river flood is a regional event. Storm Boris moved from the Danube to the Elbe and the Oder over five days and touched Germany and Italy among the members. Flood response, rail, power and insurance therefore need to be read across borders⁹.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Eurostat (ed.), Population on 1 January by age and sex (demo_pjan), EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025 (EU net emissions 37% below 1990 on the Climate Law basis, from search summaries). EEA, Copenhagen, November 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 4Eurostat (ed.), 25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables (news item). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 5Eurostat (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge), total excluding LULUCF, EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target; entry into force 7 April 2026, from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023/2413 amending the renewable energy directive (2030 target of 42.5%; the target was also stated on the Eurostat page opened). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Gas Infrastructure Europe (ed.), AGSI+ gas storage transparency platform (EU fill level at 1 November 2026 not read). GIE, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 14Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 (released 26 September 2025). ONS, Newport. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is Europe’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Member system cards
• Shared basins and grids
• Hub list
• Regional pathway
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Europe matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → WAT → ENE

   Low river flow limits cooling water and navigation and raises power stress.

   Inferred rivers 2025⁷; no event bound

2. 02

   CLI → HLT

   Heat raises deaths and loads health services.

   Reported summer 2024²²

3. 03

   TRD → ENE → FIN

   A gas supply change reaches power prices and public budgets.

   Inferred phase-out law²⁴; no event bound

4. 04

   INF → ENE → all

   A grid fault spreads across borders.

   Reported Iberian blackout 2025¹²

5. 05

   CLI → INF → FIN

   Flooding damages lifelines and the loss falls on insurers and budgets.

   Inferred floods 2024⁹; loss series not bound

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Eurostat (ed.), Population on 1 January by age and sex (demo_pjan), EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 (released 26 September 2025). ONS, Newport. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 11European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment (EEA Report 01/2024, 11 March 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 18UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Energy Trends: UK electricity 2025 (renewables 52.5% of generation, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023/2413 amending the renewable energy directive (2030 target of 42.5%; the target was also stated on the Eurostat page opened). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

Storms and floods in 2024 affected an estimated 413,000 people and caused at least 335 deaths in Europe; Storm Boris produced flood peaks at least twice the average annual maximum along 8,500 km of rivers.

Implication

A river flood is a regional event. Storm Boris moved from the Danube to the Elbe and the Oder over five days and touched Germany and Italy among the members. Flood response, rail, power and insurance therefore need to be read across borders⁹.

What would move it

Seasonal rainfall outlooks, river-flow forecasts, flood-warning exchange between member authorities and insured-loss series would each move this finding. The loss series by member is not bound⁹.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   EU net greenhouse gas emissions were 2,786 Mt CO₂e in 2024, about 40% below 1990 and about 3% below 2023 on the inventory basis; on the Climate Law basis the cut was 37%.⁶⁴⁴

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   The amended European Climate Law sets a binding 2040 target of 90% below 1990 and entered into force on 7 April 2026.²³²⁵

3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

   Storms and floods in 2024 affected an estimated 413,000 people and caused at least 335 deaths; Storm Boris produced flood peaks at least twice the average annual maximum along 8,500 km of rivers.⁹

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

   Renewables supplied 25.2% of gross final energy and 47.5% of electricity in the EU in 2024; Germany reached 54.1% of electricity, Italy 40.7% and France 31.3%.³⁴

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   The EU imported 37.8 billion cubic metres of gas from Russia in 2024; a regulation phases out Russian LNG from 2027 and pipeline gas by 30 September 2027.¹³²⁴

3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

   The ENTSO-E expert panel found that the 28 April 2025 blackout in continental Spain and Portugal came from many interacting factors, with voltage and reactive-power control central.¹²

2.4Health

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

   About 62,775 deaths were linked to heat in 32 European countries in summer 2024, of which about 19,000 in Italy.²²

2.5Water

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

   In 2021, 37% of surface water bodies reached good or high ecological status and 29% good chemical status; 77% of groundwater area was in good chemical status.¹⁰

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009

   In 2025, 70% of rivers in the European region had below-average annual flows, and wildfires burnt the largest area on record.⁷⁸

2.6Food

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-010

   The October 2025 outlook put EU grain maize 3% and sunflower 10% below the five-year average, with losses concentrated in south-eastern Europe.⁴⁶

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

   Terrestrial protected areas covered 26.4% of the EU in 2023: Germany 39.1%, France 28.3% and Italy 21.4%.⁴⁵

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a dry, hot summer in which low river flow, heat load and grid stress coincide across member borders. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025 (EU net emissions 37% below 1990 on the Climate Law basis, from search summaries). EEA, Copenhagen, November 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target; entry into force 7 April 2026, from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 4Eurostat (ed.), 25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables (news item). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 8UNVERIFIED, not opened: Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, full report; burnt area of about 1.03 million hectares taken from a search summary. ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), MARS Bulletin: crop monitoring in Europe, October 2025 (grain maize 3% and sunflower 10% below the five-year average, from search summaries). JRC, Ispra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 45Eurostat (ed.), Surface of the terrestrial protected areas (sdg_15_20), EU27, Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 4Eurostat (ed.), 25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables (news item). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), MARS Bulletin: crop monitoring in Europe, October 2025 (grain maize 3% and sunflower 10% below the five-year average, from search summaries). JRC, Ispra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 45Eurostat (ed.), Surface of the terrestrial protected areas (sdg_15_20), EU27, Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Central Bank and European Systemic Risk Board (eds.), Towards macroprudential frameworks for managing climate risk. ECB, Frankfurt, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity across the Union. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target; entry into force 7 April 2026, from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-EUR-CLI-001

   Cross-border river flood and storm season

   Driver

   extreme rainfall on saturated catchments

   Exposure

   river corridors and floodplain towns

   Vulnerability

   ageing flood defences not bound

   Capacity

   flood warning exchange; documented⁹

   Cascade

   CLI → INF, FIN, HLT

   Horizon

   annual

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-EUR-WAT-002

   Low flow on shared rivers in a dry year

   Driver

   low rainfall and high summer demand

   Exposure

   navigation, cooling water, farming

   Vulnerability

   dependence on a few river corridors

   Capacity

   basin commissions¹⁹²⁰; performance not bound

   Cascade

   WAT → ENE, FOO

   Horizon

   1–5 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-EUR-HLT-003

   Heat overload of health services

   Driver

   heat waves

   Exposure

   older adults; outdoor workers

   Vulnerability

   limited cooling; workforce not bound

   Capacity

   health system capacity not bound²²

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT → ENE peak

   Horizon

   seasonal

4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-EUR-ENE-004

   Gas or grid disruption during the transition

   Driver

   supply route change, price spike or a voltage fault

   Exposure

   power, industry, heating

   Vulnerability

   storage depth and cross-border flows not bound

   Capacity

   transmission operators and the ENTSO-E panel recommendations¹²

   Cascade

   TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 19UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ed.), the Rhine river basin (about 185,000 km2, about 60 million inhabitants, nine states; published figures vary; the page opened returned not found). ICPR, Koblenz. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 20UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ed.), Danube river basin (801,463 km2, 19 countries; the page opened was refused). ICPDR, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target; entry into force 7 April 2026, from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 5Eurostat (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge), total excluding LULUCF, EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 11European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment (EEA Report 01/2024, 11 March 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Gas Infrastructure Europe (ed.), AGSI+ gas storage transparency platform (EU fill level at 1 November 2026 not read). GIE, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity across the Union. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. European Commission, Brussels, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Central Bank and European Systemic Risk Board (eds.), Towards macroprudential frameworks for managing climate risk. ECB, Frankfurt, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-EUR-DRY-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

an extended heat wave in a dry year, with low flow on shared rivers and high power demand

Analogues

2025 river flows⁷; summer 2024 heat deaths²²; Iberian blackout 2025 for grid failure¹²

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → WAT

   low flows cut navigation and cooling water on shared rivers

   rivers 2025⁷

2. 2

   CLI → HLT

   heat raises hospital stays and deaths

   summer 2024²²

3. 3

   ENE → INF

   peak cooling demand coincides with constrained generation

   no analogue bound

4. 4

   INF → all

   a voltage fault spreads across a synchronous grid

   Iberian blackout 2025¹²

5. 5

   HLT → FIN

   losses fall on households, insurers and budgets

   loss series not bound

6. 6

   FIN → recovery

   rebuilding slows where cover is thin

   loss series not bound

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-EUR-DRY-01 would travel through Europe’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Europe 2026, scenario SCN-EUR-DRY-01 (2026); Europe 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Europe. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about Europe’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Central Bank and European Systemic Risk Board (eds.), Towards macroprudential frameworks for managing climate risk. ECB, Frankfurt, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target; entry into force 7 April 2026, from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2023/956 establishing a carbon border adjustment mechanism. Official Journal of the European Union, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive 2000/60/EC establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy. Official Journal of the European Communities, 2000. Observation year 2000. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity across the Union. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes. UNECE, Geneva, 1992. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 11European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment (EEA Report 01/2024, 11 March 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 8UNVERIFIED, not opened: Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, full report; burnt area of about 1.03 million hectares taken from a search summary. ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Gas Market Report (latest quarterly edition at evidence close). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 1Eurostat (ed.), Population on 1 January by age and sex (demo_pjan), EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 2Eurostat (ed.), EU population up by 1.1 million on 1 January 2025 (news release, 450.4 million). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 11 July 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 4Eurostat (ed.), 25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables (news item). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 5Eurostat (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge), total excluding LULUCF, EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 45Eurostat (ed.), Surface of the terrestrial protected areas (sdg_15_20), EU27, Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 14Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 (released 26 September 2025). ONS, Newport. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 15Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2025 UK greenhouse gas emissions: provisional figures (statistics page, released 2 April 2026; figures not on the page opened). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 16UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2025 UK greenhouse gas emissions: provisional figures, statistical release (net territorial emissions 367 MtCO2e, 2% below 2024, 54% below 1990, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 17UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ofgem (ed.), Electricity interconnectors (Great Britain capacity about 10.3 GW, another Ofgem page gives 9.8 GW; the page opened did not state capacity). Ofgem, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 18UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Energy Trends: UK electricity 2025 (renewables 52.5% of generation, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 19UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ed.), the Rhine river basin (about 185,000 km2, about 60 million inhabitants, nine states; published figures vary; the page opened returned not found). ICPR, Koblenz. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 20UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ed.), Danube river basin (801,463 km2, 19 countries; the page opened was refused). ICPDR, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), MARS Bulletin: crop monitoring in Europe, October 2025 (grain maize 3% and sunflower 10% below the five-year average, from search summaries). JRC, Ispra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a dry, hot summer load shared rivers, health services and the grid across member borders?

   INI-EUR-CLI-01 · compound summer stress; first output: dependency graph for the Rhine corridor.

2. A-02

   How deep are gas stocks and how diverse are supply routes after the Russian gas phase-out?

   INI-EUR-ENE-02 · gas supply resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.

3. A-03

   How do low flows on shared basins reach navigation, cooling water and farming?

   INI-EUR-WAT-03 · shared basins; first output: basin performance note for the Rhine.

4. A-04

   How many deaths can be attributed to heat, by member and year?

   INI-EUR-HLT-04 · heat and health; first output: attribution baseline for three members.

5. A-05

   Where do flood and storm losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?

   INI-EUR-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-member loss table.

6. A-06

   What is the conservation status of habitats and how is it measured across members?

   INI-EUR-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.

7. A-07

   How exposed are crop output and food access to concurrent drought, heat and price shocks?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The Europe regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read Europe as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   National Foundries

   continuous national evidence environments

   PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

2. 02

   National Models and Portfolios

   each country as a system of systems

   CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

3. 03

   Quarterly national reports

   State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

   BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

4. 04

   Regional aggregation

   Europe as one of ten regional clusters

   THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

5. 05

   Global sector and strategic models

   GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

   49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

6. 06

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

7. 07

   Global Report

   this series

   BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-EUR-2027-01 · Rivers, heat and grid Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The five member countries named in the series registry, read side by side on the same indicators. The European Union is a separate subject: its totals appear only as a reference group, because the United Kingdom and Switzerland are outside it.

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared basins, grids and gas supply carry risk across member borders. This chapter names each system, the members involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs

Paris · Geneva

Desks with a remit

GCRI · GRF · GRX

Registry record

NR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0

What a hub does in this series

• Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
• Hub contact points are not named at baseline
• The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read Europe as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Eurostat (ed.), Population on 1 January by age and sex (demo_pjan), EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5Eurostat (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge), total excluding LULUCF, EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 45Eurostat (ed.), Surface of the terrestrial protected areas (sdg_15_20), EU27, Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 14Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 (released 26 September 2025). ONS, Newport. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 16UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2025 UK greenhouse gas emissions: provisional figures, statistical release (net territorial emissions 367 MtCO2e, 2% below 2024, 54% below 1990, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 18UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Energy Trends: UK electricity 2025 (renewables 52.5% of generation, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 21UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Federal Office of Energy (ed.), Swiss overall energy statistics 2025, electricity (extract carries an amendment dated 19 June 2026). SFOE, Bern. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 19UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ed.), the Rhine river basin (about 185,000 km2, about 60 million inhabitants, nine states; published figures vary; the page opened returned not found). ICPR, Koblenz. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 20UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ed.), Danube river basin (801,463 km2, 19 countries; the page opened was refused). ICPDR, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 17UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ofgem (ed.), Electricity interconnectors (Great Britain capacity about 10.3 GW, another Ofgem page gives 9.8 GW; the page opened did not state capacity). Ofgem, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes. UNECE, Geneva, 1992. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Second Assessment of Transboundary Rivers, Lakes and Groundwaters. UNECE, Geneva, 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ENTSO-E (ed.), Transparency platform and Continental Europe synchronous area data (cross-border flows and capacity not read). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Gas Infrastructure Europe (ed.), AGSI+ gas storage transparency platform (EU fill level at 1 November 2026 not read). GIE, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-EUR-REGIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent Europe as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-REG-EUR-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

50 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-REG-EUR-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• EEA greenhouse gas inventory⁶ : land-use treatment on one basis
• Gas storage platform⁴² : depth and flows
• ENTSO-E transparency platform⁴³ : cross-border flows
• Reports Foundational Edition⁴⁸ and the global baseline⁴⁹ : method and peer distributions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: emissions excluding land use

Construct

annual greenhouse gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry, and without memo items

Unit

Mt CO₂e

Scope

calendar year

Source

Eurostat greenhouse gas emissions dataset⁵

Revision

revised by the issuer; not tracked here

Known limits

differs from the EEA net inventory figure, which includes land use⁶

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Gas Infrastructure Europe (ed.), AGSI+ gas storage transparency platform (EU fill level at 1 November 2026 not read). GIE, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 21UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Federal Office of Energy (ed.), Swiss overall energy statistics 2025, electricity (extract carries an amendment dated 19 June 2026). SFOE, Bern. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 45Eurostat (ed.), Surface of the terrestrial protected areas (sdg_15_20), EU27, Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 (released 26 September 2025). ONS, Newport. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 5Eurostat (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge), total excluding LULUCF, EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 16UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2025 UK greenhouse gas emissions: provisional figures, statistical release (net territorial emissions 367 MtCO2e, 2% below 2024, 54% below 1990, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 19UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ed.), the Rhine river basin (about 185,000 km2, about 60 million inhabitants, nine states; published figures vary; the page opened returned not found). ICPR, Koblenz. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 20UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ed.), Danube river basin (801,463 km2, 19 countries; the page opened was refused). ICPDR, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ENTSO-E (ed.), Transparency platform and Continental Europe synchronous area data (cross-border flows and capacity not read). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 1Eurostat (ed.), Population on 1 January by age and sex (demo_pjan), EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Regional source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading: Europe by member country

Map plates for every member country follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form for the 5 member countries named in the series registry.

Selected populations¹¹⁴

B.4Atlas card: Rhine basin

• basin
• shared river system
• navigation and cooling water
• members: Switzerland, Germany, France

Systems in view

water, energy and freight

Defining instruments

Water Framework Directive²⁸; UNECE water convention³²

Couplings

CLI → WAT → ENE; WAT → FOO

Capability evidence

an international river commission exists¹⁹; performance not bound

Gaps

low-water days, navigation depth and cooling-water limits

Agenda items

A-03

B.5Europe system card

The card through which Europe appears in the global edition and in the sector series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

five interlinked members sharing basins and grids

Population

450.6 million in the EU (1 January 2025)¹; United Kingdom 69.3 million¹⁴

Trade

Russian gas imports 37.8 billion m³ in 2024¹³

Hazard

floods of 2024 affected 413,000 people⁹

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-REG-EUR-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Eurostat (ed.), Population on 1 January by age and sex (demo_pjan), EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 (released 26 September 2025). ONS, Newport. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5Eurostat (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge), total excluding LULUCF, EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 45Eurostat (ed.), Surface of the terrestrial protected areas (sdg_15_20), EU27, Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Gas Infrastructure Europe (ed.), AGSI+ gas storage transparency platform (EU fill level at 1 November 2026 not read). GIE, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 21UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Federal Office of Energy (ed.), Swiss overall energy statistics 2025, electricity (extract carries an amendment dated 19 June 2026). SFOE, Bern. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 2Eurostat (ed.), EU population up by 1.1 million on 1 January 2025 (news release, 450.4 million). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 11 July 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 4Eurostat (ed.), 25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables (news item). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025 (EU net emissions 37% below 1990 on the Climate Law basis, from search summaries). EEA, Copenhagen, November 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 8UNVERIFIED, not opened: Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, full report; burnt area of about 1.03 million hectares taken from a search summary. ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 15Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2025 UK greenhouse gas emissions: provisional figures (statistics page, released 2 April 2026; figures not on the page opened). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 16UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2025 UK greenhouse gas emissions: provisional figures, statistical release (net territorial emissions 367 MtCO2e, 2% below 2024, 54% below 1990, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 17UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ofgem (ed.), Electricity interconnectors (Great Britain capacity about 10.3 GW, another Ofgem page gives 9.8 GW; the page opened did not state capacity). Ofgem, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 18UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Energy Trends: UK electricity 2025 (renewables 52.5% of generation, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Editions 2026 for France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom (draft packs; the Switzerland edition is in preparation). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive 2000/60/EC establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy. Official Journal of the European Communities, 2000. Observation year 2000. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes. UNECE, Geneva, 1992. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 19UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ed.), the Rhine river basin (about 185,000 km2, about 60 million inhabitants, nine states; published figures vary; the page opened returned not found). ICPR, Koblenz. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), MARS Bulletin: crop monitoring in Europe, October 2025 (grain maize 3% and sunflower 10% below the five-year average, from search summaries). JRC, Ispra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.150 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Eurostat (ed.), Population on 1 January by age and sex (demo_pjan), EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2Eurostat (ed.), EU population up by 1.1 million on 1 January 2025 (news release, 450.4 million). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 11 July 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
3. 3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4Eurostat (ed.), 25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables (news item). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
5. 5Eurostat (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge), total excluding LULUCF, EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
8. 8UNVERIFIED, not opened: Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, full report; burnt area of about 1.03 million hectares taken from a search summary. ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
9. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
10. 10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
11. 11European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment (EEA Report 01/2024, 11 March 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
12. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 (released 26 September 2025). ONS, Newport. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
15. 15Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2025 UK greenhouse gas emissions: provisional figures (statistics page, released 2 April 2026; figures not on the page opened). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
16. 16UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2025 UK greenhouse gas emissions: provisional figures, statistical release (net territorial emissions 367 MtCO2e, 2% below 2024, 54% below 1990, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
17. 17UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ofgem (ed.), Electricity interconnectors (Great Britain capacity about 10.3 GW, another Ofgem page gives 9.8 GW; the page opened did not state capacity). Ofgem, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Energy Trends: UK electricity 2025 (renewables 52.5% of generation, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ed.), the Rhine river basin (about 185,000 km2, about 60 million inhabitants, nine states; published figures vary; the page opened returned not found). ICPR, Koblenz. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ed.), Danube river basin (801,463 km2, 19 countries; the page opened was refused). ICPDR, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Federal Office of Energy (ed.), Swiss overall energy statistics 2025, electricity (extract carries an amendment dated 19 June 2026). SFOE, Bern. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
22. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
23. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target; entry into force 7 April 2026, from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2023/956 establishing a carbon border adjustment mechanism. Official Journal of the European Union, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive 2000/60/EC establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy. Official Journal of the European Communities, 2000. Observation year 2000. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity across the Union. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023/2413 amending the renewable energy directive (2030 target of 42.5%; the target was also stated on the Eurostat page opened). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes. UNECE, Geneva, 1992. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Second Assessment of Transboundary Rivers, Lakes and Groundwaters. UNECE, Geneva, 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Gas Market Report (latest quarterly edition at evidence close). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Central Bank and European Systemic Risk Board (eds.), Towards macroprudential frameworks for managing climate risk. ECB, Frankfurt, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Gas Infrastructure Europe (ed.), AGSI+ gas storage transparency platform (EU fill level at 1 November 2026 not read). GIE, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 8
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ENTSO-E (ed.), Transparency platform and Continental Europe synchronous area data (cross-border flows and capacity not read). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025 (EU net emissions 37% below 1990 on the Climate Law basis, from search summaries). EEA, Copenhagen, November 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2
45. 45Eurostat (ed.), Surface of the terrestrial protected areas (sdg_15_20), EU27, Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), MARS Bulletin: crop monitoring in Europe, October 2025 (grain maize 3% and sunflower 10% below the five-year average, from search summaries). JRC, Ispra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. European Commission, Brussels, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
49. 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Editions 2026 for France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom (draft packs; the Switzerland edition is in preparation). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version