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Europe’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no member country.

7 min read2 figures2 tables13 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Europe’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry, hot summer across the Rhine corridor and the Alpine grid
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is Europe’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Member system cards
  • Shared basins and grids
  • Hub list
  • Regional pathway
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

The European Union had 450.6 million residents on 1 January 20251. The United Kingdom had 69.3 million in mid-202414. Germany had 83.6 million, France 68.9 million, Italy 58.9 million and Switzerland 9.1 million on 1 January 20251. This baseline reads Europe as a region whose member countries share basins, grids and supply routes, so that a shock in one reaches the others.

The forcing layer is visible in recent records. Storms and flooding in 2024 affected an estimated 413,000 people and caused at least 335 deaths9. Storm Boris produced flood peaks at least twice the average annual maximum along 8,500 km of rivers, and the middle Danube peaked on 15 September, the Elbe on 17 September and the lower Oder on 20 September9. In 2025, 70% of rivers had below-average flows and wildfires burnt the largest area on record7.

Heat adds a health layer. A peer-reviewed estimate links about 62,775 deaths to heat in 32 European countries in summer 2024, and about 19,000 of them to Italy22. It is a modelled estimate, not a count of registered deaths.

The water layer is under pressure from pollution as well as flow. In 2021, 37% of surface water bodies reached good or high ecological status and 29% good chemical status10. The European climate risk assessment identifies 36 climate risks to energy and food security, ecosystems, infrastructure, water, financial stability and health11.

The energy layer is a transition with a supply-security edge. Renewables supplied 47.5% of EU electricity in 20243. The EU imported 37.8 billion cubic metres of gas from Russia in 2024 and has legislated to end those imports1324. The 2025 Iberian blackout showed that a grid can fail through voltage control, not only through shortage12.

This edition therefore reads Europe’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask two questions: where does a shock travel next across a border, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How do renewable shares of electricity differ? Share of gross electricity consumption, 2024 (%)

Renewables supplied 47.5% of EU electricity in 2024, with Germany at 54.1%, Italy at 40.7% and France at 31.3%3. France’s electricity mix has a large non-renewable low-carbon part that this series does not show. The United Kingdom reported 52.5% for 2025 on a different basis18.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
EU47.5
Germany54.1
Italy40.7
France31.3

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE-01-003

47.5%

EU renewables share of electricity, 20243

25.2%

EU renewables share of final energy, 20243

42.5%

2030 target for final energy31

52.5%

United Kingdom renewables share of electricity, 202518

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Europe matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
hydro · thermal cooling		STRONG
irrigation · rain-fed yield		STRONG
safe water · sanitation		STRONG
flows · wetlands
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · desalination		·STRONG
fuel · fertiliser · cold chain		STRONG
air pollution · cooling		MODERATE
land use · mining
FOO FoodSTRONG
≈70% of withdrawals		WEAK
bioenergy feedstock		·STRONG
nutrition · food safety		STRONG
land conversion
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · disease		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONG
regulation · filtration		MODERATE
biomass · hydrology		STRONG
pollination · soils		MODERATE
zoonoses · medicines		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → WAT → ENE

    Low river flow limits cooling water and navigation and raises power stress.

    Inferred rivers 20257; no event bound

  2. 02

    CLI → HLT

    Heat raises deaths and loads health services.

    Reported summer 202422

  3. 03

    TRD → ENE → FIN

    A gas supply change reaches power prices and public budgets.

    Inferred phase-out law24; no event bound

  4. 04

    INF → ENE → all

    A grid fault spreads across borders.

    Reported Iberian blackout 202512

  5. 05

    CLI → INF → FIN

    Flooding damages lifelines and the loss falls on insurers and budgets.

    Inferred floods 20249; loss series not bound

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and FOOWater to food: irrigation · rain-fed yieldFood to water: ≈70% of withdrawals
WAT and BIOWater to biodiversity: flows · wetlandsBiodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversionBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Eurostat (ed.), Population on 1 January by age and sex (demo_pjan), EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 14Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 (released 26 September 2025). ONS, Newport. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 11European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment (EEA Report 01/2024, 11 March 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 18UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Energy Trends: UK electricity 2025 (renewables 52.5% of generation, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023/2413 amending the renewable energy directive (2030 target of 42.5%; the target was also stated on the Eurostat page opened). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Europe’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas. In Europe Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Europe’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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