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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Europe’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry, hot summer across the Rhine corridor and the Alpine grid
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Surface water bodies in good or high ecological status

37%

Good chemical status was reported for 29%. Groundwater fares better: 77% of area in good chemical status.

Reported2021EEA10

ENE · Energy

Renewables in gross final energy consumption, EU

25.2%

Renewables supplied 47.5% of electricity. The 2030 target is 42.5% of final energy.

Reported2024Eurostat34

FOO · Food

Grain maize outlook against the five-year average

−3%

Sunflower was 10% below. Losses were concentrated in south-eastern Europe, outside the member set.

ReportedOct 2025JRC46

HLT · Health

Deaths linked to heat in summer 2024, 32 countries

62,775deaths

A modelled estimate in a peer-reviewed study, not a death count. Italy accounts for about 19,000.

Reported2024ISGlobal22

BIO · Biodiversity

Terrestrial area protected, EU

26.4%

Germany 39.1%, France 28.3%, Italy 21.4%. No Eurostat value for Switzerland.

Reported2023Eurostat45

SYS · Cross-system

People affected by storms and floods in Europe

413,000people

At least 335 deaths and at least EUR 18 billion of damage.

Reported2024Copernicus9

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATShared rivers; 37% of surface water bodies in good or high ecological status in 202110; 70% of rivers below average flow in 20257.WAT → ENE · WAT → FOOReported EQL 5
ENERenewables 47.5% of EU electricity in 2024; Russian gas imports 37.8 billion m³ in 2024 and being phased out31324.ENE → allReported EQL 4
FOOGrain maize and sunflower below the five-year average in 2025, mainly in the south-east46. Output series not bound.FOO ← WAT, CLIReported EQL 3
HLTAbout 62,775 heat-linked deaths in summer 2024 across 32 countries22.HLT ← CLI, ENEReported EQL 3
BIOProtected: 26.4% of EU land in 202345. Condition not bound.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 3
CLIFloods in 2024 affected 413,000 people; wildfire area in 2025 was the largest on record79.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 5
INFA grid failure in 2025 showed voltage-control weakness12. Cross-border flows not bound.INF → allReported EQL 4
FINInsured and uninsured flood losses by member not bound; ECB and ESRB frame climate risk to financial stability41.FIN ← CLINot bound EQL 1
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines under the network and information security directive; not mapped at public-safe resolution30.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and compute demand on grids and water not bound.AIC → ENE, WATNot bound EQL 1
MINMineral and fuel trade not bound at baseline.MIN ← TRDNot bound EQL 1
TRDGas and LNG trade routes are changing under the phase-out regulation24.TRD → allInferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound drought, heat and grid stressdry, hot summer across member bordersPARTIAL
GS-01Water37% of surface water bodies in good or high status10low flows on shared basinsGOOD
GS-02Energyrenewables 47.5% of EU electricity3gas supply; voltage controlGOOD
GS-03Foodmaize and sunflower below average in 202546drought and heatTHIN
GS-04Healthabout 62,775 heat-linked deaths22heat load on servicesPARTIAL
GS-05Financeloss series not boundprotection gapTHIN
GS-06Developmentnot read at regional levelnot boundTHIN
GS-07Climate2040 target in law23heat, flood and fireGOOD
GS-08Disasterfloods affected 413,000 people in 20249compound and sequential eventsPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructureblackout analysis published12grid voltage controlPARTIAL
GS-10Citiesnot read at regional levelurban heatTHIN
GS-11Biodiversity26.4% of EU land protected45condition not boundPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationCopernicus assessments published79continuity of recordsGOOD
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not mapped30systemic outagesTHIN
GS-14PolicyClimate Law, gas phase-out and nature law232427coordination across levelsPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencepeer-reviewed heat and compound-event record2235translation to membersPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4Eurostat (ed.), 25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables (news item). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), MARS Bulletin: crop monitoring in Europe, October 2025 (grain maize 3% and sunflower 10% below the five-year average, from search summaries). JRC, Ispra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 45Eurostat (ed.), Surface of the terrestrial protected areas (sdg_15_20), EU27, Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Central Bank and European Systemic Risk Board (eds.), Towards macroprudential frameworks for managing climate risk. ECB, Frankfurt, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity across the Union. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target; entry into force 7 April 2026, from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Europe Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Europe’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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