Readings from the other desks

The regional baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

14 min read0 figures8 tables40 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of European risk: heat, flood and dry years act on water, energy and health together. Evidence is strongest for population, emissions and the electricity mix, and weakest for losses, cross-border flows and the condition of nature.

CLI-001 · CLI-006 · WAT-009 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a flood warning, a heat day or a price change. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how shared rivers and shared grids make one member’s event another member’s problem.

CLI-006 · HLT-007 · ENE-005

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound, and macroprudential work on climate risk exists⁴¹. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

CLI-006 · SYS-012

NEXUS

Synthesis

Europe publishes strong statistics on emissions, energy and climate, and a clear legal frame for 2040. The 2027 programme should bind loss, gas-stock and cross-border flow data, test the dry summer, and measure the condition of nature.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Europe. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Europe regional pathway	regional pathway: hubs named in the registry	regional Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Floods, heat and grid faults do not stop at a frontier. The baseline treats the shared basin and the shared grid as the units of analysis, with member countries as the places where the effects land.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Risk crosses the border first

The European Union has its own edition in the series. This edition reads Europe as five member countries named in the registry and uses union totals only as a reference group. The two are never joined on a code alone.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

A union is not a region

The gas phase-out and the Iberian blackout point the same way: security depends on diversity of routes and on control of the grid, not on volume alone.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Supply security is a design question

Several data that matter most for risk, including storage depth, cross-border flows and losses by member, could not be read at evidence close. The edition shows each gap and the source that would fill it.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Gaps are findings too

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 regional readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Regional risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five regional system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	editions in programme as listed in the series registry	regional and sector baselines
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
European Climate Law, Regulation (EU) 2021/1119, amended by (EU) 2026/667²³²⁵	EU institutions	EU	IN FORCE · AMENDED 2026	2040 target
Phase-out of Russian gas, Regulation (EU) 2026/261²⁴	EU institutions	EU	IN FORCE FROM 3 FEB 2026	gas supply
Carbon border adjustment, Regulation (EU) 2023/956²⁶	EU institutions	EU	IN FORCE	trade and emissions
Nature Restoration Regulation (EU) 2024/1991²⁷	EU institutions	EU	IN FORCE	habitats
Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC²⁸	EU institutions	EU basins	IN FORCE	water status
Critical entities directive (EU) 2022/2557²⁹	EU institutions	EU	IN FORCE	lifeline resilience
Network and information security directive (EU) 2022/2555³⁰	EU institutions	EU	IN FORCE	digital dependencies
Convention on transboundary watercourses³²	UNECE	international	IN FORCE	shared rivers
Sendai Framework 2015–2030³⁷	UNDRR	international	ADOPTED 2015	disaster risk reduction
Kunming-Montreal Framework³⁸	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30

Changed since 2024

The amended Climate Law set a 2040 target of 90% below 1990 and entered into force in April 2026²³
The Russian gas phase-out regulation entered into effect in February 2026²⁴
The ENTSO-E panel published its final blackout report in March 2026¹²

To watch in 2027

Implementing proposals for the 2040 target²³
The January 2027 and September 2027 steps of the gas phase-out²⁴
Application of the nature restoration plans by members²⁷

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about Europe’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lee and Romero (eds.)³⁴	assessment	2023	context	forcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)³⁶	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.³⁵	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
ISGlobal heat estimate²²	journal study	2025	supports	heat mortality
Climate risk assessment¹¹	agency assessment	2024	supports	risk framing

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
European State of the Climate 2024⁹	Copernicus and WMO	2025	supports	floods
European State of the Climate 2025⁷⁸	Copernicus and WMO	2026	supports	rivers, fire
Europe’s state of water¹⁰	EEA	2024	supports	water status
Iberian blackout final report¹²	ENTSO-E expert panel	2026	supports	grid failure
Gas market report³⁹	IEA	2026	context	gas supply

Table 6.7Official statistics and regional sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Population on 1 January¹²	Eurostat	2025	supports	profile
Renewable energy³⁴	Eurostat	2025	supports	power mix
Greenhouse gas emissions⁵⁶	Eurostat and EEA	2026	supports	climate
Gas imports¹³⁴⁵	Eurostat	2025	supports	supply, nature
UK population and emissions¹⁴¹⁵¹⁶	ONS and DESNZ	2026	supports	profile, climate

Table 6.8Industry, grid and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Renewable capacity statistics⁴⁰	IRENA	2026	context	capacity
GB interconnectors¹⁷	Ofgem	2025	context	grid links
GB electricity¹⁸	DESNZ	2026	context	power mix
Rhine and Danube basin facts¹⁹²⁰	river commissions	2025	context	shared basins
Crop monitoring bulletin⁴⁶	JRC	2025	context	food

Where the evidence agrees

Europe is warming faster than the global mean, and heat, flood and fire records are rising⁷⁹
Compound and sequential hazards load health and services together¹¹³⁵
Surface waters remain far from good status¹⁰

Where it is unsettled

How much of the emissions change reflects land use, which the member series treat on different bases⁵⁶¹⁶
How fast the gas phase-out can proceed while keeping storage and prices stable²⁴
How many heat deaths remain unrecorded²²

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Central Bank and European Systemic Risk Board (eds.), Towards macroprudential frameworks for managing climate risk. ECB, Frankfurt, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target; entry into force 7 April 2026, from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian gas imports (the page opened returned no text; dates from search summaries). Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2023/956 establishing a carbon border adjustment mechanism. Official Journal of the European Union, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive 2000/60/EC establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy. Official Journal of the European Communities, 2000. Observation year 2000. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity across the Union. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes. UNECE, Geneva, 1992. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: expert panel final report (page opened; final report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISGlobal (ed.), Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe (press release on a peer-reviewed estimate; the page returned an error; journal title to be confirmed). ISGlobal, Barcelona. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment (EEA Report 01/2024, 11 March 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024, Flooding (people affected, deaths, Storm Boris, Valencia). C3S, Reading. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7WMO and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (series page, published 29 April 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8UNVERIFIED, not opened: Copernicus Climate Change Service and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, full report; burnt area of about 1.03 million hectares taken from a search summary. ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience (EEA Report 07/2024, 15 October 2024). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Gas Market Report (latest quarterly edition at evidence close). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1Eurostat (ed.), Population on 1 January by age and sex (demo_pjan), EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2Eurostat (ed.), EU population up by 1.1 million on 1 January 2025 (news release, 450.4 million). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 11 July 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3Eurostat (ed.), Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity, EU27, Germany, France and Italy. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4Eurostat (ed.), 25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables (news item). Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5Eurostat (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge), total excluding LULUCF, EU27, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6European Environment Agency (ed.), Key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (briefing, published 17 April 2026). EEA, Copenhagen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13Eurostat (ed.), Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, imports by partner (nrg_ti_gas), Russia, EU27, million cubic metres. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45Eurostat (ed.), Surface of the terrestrial protected areas (sdg_15_20), EU27, Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 (released 26 September 2025). ONS, Newport. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2025 UK greenhouse gas emissions: provisional figures (statistics page, released 2 April 2026; figures not on the page opened). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2025 UK greenhouse gas emissions: provisional figures, statistical release (net territorial emissions 367 MtCO2e, 2% below 2024, 54% below 1990, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ofgem (ed.), Electricity interconnectors (Great Britain capacity about 10.3 GW, another Ofgem page gives 9.8 GW; the page opened did not state capacity). Ofgem, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Energy Trends: UK electricity 2025 (renewables 52.5% of generation, from search summaries). DESNZ, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ed.), the Rhine river basin (about 185,000 km2, about 60 million inhabitants, nine states; published figures vary; the page opened returned not found). ICPR, Koblenz. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ed.), Danube river basin (801,463 km2, 19 countries; the page opened was refused). ICPDR, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), MARS Bulletin: crop monitoring in Europe, October 2025 (grain maize 3% and sunflower 10% below the five-year average, from search summaries). JRC, Ispra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In Europe Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Europe’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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