- Food, Water and Energy Security 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Food, water and energy fail together
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
S.1Abstract
Food, water and energy are one coupled system. Energy grows and moves food and fertiliser, water irrigates the fields that feed people, and pumping, treating and desalting water needs power. The 2025 and 2026 evidence shows the coupling at work. FAO estimates about 645 million people faced hunger in 20251, and the Global Report on Food Crises counts about 266 million in acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories2. About 2.1 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water in 2024 and 655 million lacked electricity1311. Agriculture takes about 69 to 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals1516. In 2026 the Strait of Hormuz crisis reached food through three channels at once. FAO reports tanker traffic fell by more than 90 percent after the crisis, and urea prices were up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil by mid-April5. The FAO Food Price Index stood at 133.3 in August 2026, 2.5 percent above a year earlier46. World cereal stocks are not thin: FAO forecast 2026/27 stocks at 947.2 million tonnes in early September47. NOAA gave a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño in northern fall and winter 2026-27 on 10 September4849. This baseline reads these events as mechanisms, not as a list. It ranks no country, attributes no attack and recommends no policy.
S.2Key messages
Six readings that frame the food, water and energy baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
Yes: conflict, route closures, climate states and price shocks hit all three.2548
Do food, water and energy stress have common causes?Reported
Through fuel, fertiliser and import costs.546
How does an energy shock reach food?Reported
Not at the global level: FAO forecast 2026/27 cereal stocks at 947.2 million tonnes.47
Is the grain buffer thin?Reported
About 69 to 72 percent of withdrawals.1516
How much water does farming take?Reported
2.1 billion lack safe drinking water; 655 million lack electricity.1311
Who lacks basic water and power?Reported
Plants and fuel supply for water systems were reported hit in 2026.2123
Does war reach water systems?Reported
Slowly at the global level; acute crises remain high.12
Is the hunger trend improving?Reported
An energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño. SCN-SR07-FWE-01
What will 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007
By mid-April 2026 urea prices were up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil, and an estimated 1.5 to 3 million tonnes of monthly fertiliser trade was delayed.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| United States | +52% | |
| Brazil | +60% |
Source: FAO5. Two markets only; the base month and price series are not given on the page.
Fertiliser is bought before planting. FAO names squeezed farm margins and lower future yields as one of four channels, and tells countries to avoid export limits on energy and fertiliser in the next 90 days5. Yield outcomes are not yet observed.
S.4At a glance
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading food, water and energy as one coupled system.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people the problem arrives as a higher grocery bill, a dry tap or a power cut.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Price and import-bill stress is visible, and fertiliser and water plants are the exposed assets.
NEXUS
Synthesis
Food, water and energy are well described one series at a time and thinly measured as a system.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A baseline: the 2026 state of the world’s food, water and energy systems and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.
What it is not
Not a food-security ranking, a famine declaration, a price forecast or an assessment of any government, supplier or operator. Food, water and energy policy rests with governments and competent authorities.
What comes next
National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 food, water and energy edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water systems serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children’s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back