Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

7 min read0 figures1 table21 notesNR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Food, water and energy fail together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR07-FOO-001

    Fertiliser shock before planting

    Driver
    route closure and price rise in urea5
    Exposure
    import-dependent farming systems; Bangladesh sources 53 percent of fertiliser from the Gulf5
    Vulnerability
    thin farm margins; few alternative suppliers
    Capacity
    priority shipments to low-income states; stocks5
    Cascade
    ENE → FOO → HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 3 years

  2. InferredEQL 2RSK-SR07-WAT-002

    Desalination and power loss in arid coasts

    Driver
    strikes and fuel loss at co-located plants2123
    Exposure
    Gulf states with 90 to 99 percent desalinated supply22
    Vulnerability
    power and water plants combined; few aquifers
    Capacity
    storage; pipelines; priority supply
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT → HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR07-CLI-003

    Strong El Niño on rain-fed and irrigated crops

    Driver
    very strong El Niño likely in northern fall and winter 2026-274849
    Exposure
    eastern and southern Africa food assistance needs9
    Vulnerability
    rain-fed farming; low stocks at household level
    Capacity
    early warning; assistance; national reserves
    Cascade
    CLI → FOO, WAT
    Horizon
    annual

  4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR07-FIN-004

    Price and import-bill stress

    Driver
    higher food and energy prices468
    Exposure
    low- and lower-middle-income importers9
    Vulnerability
    currency and fiscal limits; lost remittances5
    Capacity
    social protection; trade facilitation
    Cascade
    FIN → FOO → HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 3 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSwater and food standards widespread; implementation uneven3842
Monitoring and observationADEQUATEglobal price, stock and crisis reporting24647
Early warningADEQUATEhunger hotspot and climate outlooks published448
Preparedness and planningEXISTSFAO route and reserve coordination work reported5
Redundancy and reservesADEQUATEworld cereal stocks forecast at 947.2 million tonnes; fertiliser stocks not consolidated47
ResponseDEMONSTRATEDfamine responses and food assistance operate at scale3
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDpriority supply to water plants not consolidated
RecoveryLISTEDrecovery of damaged plants not consolidated
AdaptationEXISTSland, soil and water guidance updated in 202624
Social protectionEXISTSfood assistance reaches millions; gaps in funding3
Finance and insuranceLISTEDprotection gaps in sibling editions
Institutional coordinationEXISTStransboundary arrangements cover 43 of 153 sharing countries at 90 percent or more133839
Technical infrastructureEXISTSageing and exposed plants in places21
WorkforceLISTEDskills for irrigation and plant operation not consolidated
Research capacityADEQUATEnexus science established333435
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 23POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water systems serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children’s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  6. 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  7. 9POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 edition (real food prices above headline inflation in about 22 percent of 150 countries, up from 14 percent; Yemen more than 18 million in acute food insecurity; El Niño very strong through early 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  9. 8POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses, United Nations, 1997, cited from memory. Observation year 1997. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 14046:2014, Environmental management: water footprint, principles, requirements and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  14. 4POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (page of 17 June 2026; 13 hotspots; highest concern Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen and Palestine). Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 3WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis (page; 266 million in crisis-level hunger or worse; 45 million at risk from the Middle East conflict; two famines confirmed in 2025 in Gaza and Sudan). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 24POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Newsroom items of 29 and 30 October 2026 (updated land, soil and water guidance for COP17; El Niño and Rift Valley fever alert). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Helsinki, 1992), UNECE, cited from memory. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bazilian, M. et al., Considering the energy, water and food nexus: towards an integrated modelling approach, Energy Policy 39(12), 7896 to 7906, 2011, cited from memory; the publisher page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hoff, H., Understanding the Nexus: background paper for the Bonn 2011 Conference, The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 2011, cited from memory; the SEI page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Food–Water–Energy Security (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Food, Water and Energy Security.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskStrategic Systems

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

Sector signature

The sectors behind Food, Water and Energy Security.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Water, Energy and Food

Water gives energy cooling water and hydropower (0.6); water gives food irrigation (0.8): the strongest relations between the sectors this subject joins.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices