Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

11 min read0 figures8 tables20 notesNR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Food, water and energy fail together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
    1. B.1 The indicator set
    2. B.2 Global source register
    3. B.3 Regional reading, ten regional clusters
    4. B.4 Regional card: Gulf coast water and power
    5. B.5 How countries appear in the global edition
    6. B.6 Licences
    7. B.7 Formats and provenance
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Global baseline indicator set
IndicatorValueUnitYearStateSource
People facing hunger645million2025Reported1
People unable to afford a healthy diet2.7billion2025Reported1
People in acute food insecurity266million2025Reported2
Countries and territories in the GRFC47count2025Reported2
People without safely managed drinking water2.1billion2024Reported13
People without safely managed sanitation3.4billion2024Reported13
People without electricity655million2024Reported11
Agriculture share of withdrawals69 to 72percentnot statedReported1516
Fall in tanker traffic after the crisis>90percent2026Reported5
Urea price rise, United States52percent2026Reported5
Urea price rise, Brazil60percent2026Reported5
FAO Food Price Index, August133.3points2026Reported46
World cereal stocks, 2026/27 forecast947.2million tonnes2026Reported47
GCC desalination share of municipal water76percent2023Reported22
Chance of a very strong El Niño, northern fall and winter 2026-27>90percent2026Reported4849
Indicators, CSVIndicators, JSON

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

  • FOO
  • WAT
  • ENE
  • CLI
  • FIN
  • TRD
  • CON
  • HLT
  • MIN
  • INF
Table B.3Global source register
SourceCategoryCoveragePeriodCadenceRole
FAO SOFI 20261UN agencyglobal2025annualhunger
GRFC 20262multi-agency network47 countries and territories2025annualacute food insecurity
FAO Hormuz statement5UN agencyglobal2026one-offroute shock
FAO Food Price Index, August46UN agencyglobal2026monthlyprices
FAO cereal brief, September47trade pressglobal2026monthlystocks
Tracking SDG711multi-agencyglobal2024annualelectricity access
UN SDG 613UN statisticsglobal2024annualwater access
FAO AQUASTAT15UN agencyglobalnot statedperiodicwater use
NOAA ENSO discussion, 10 September4849secondary reportsglobal2026monthlyclimate state
Arab Center analysis22think tankGulf2023one-offdesalination share

B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading, ten regional clusters
RegionPrincipal hazardsSystems most exposedBaseline evidence
North Americafertiliser prices; hurricane-season energy exposurefuel, fertiliser, grainFAO5; EIA20
South Americafertiliser import costs; El Niño drought and floodfertiliser, rain-fed cropsFAO5; NOAA48
Europegas prices and energy costsenergy, fertiliserWorld Bank8; IEA25
EurasiaBlack Sea shipping constraintsgrain tradetrade press47
Middle East and North Africadesalination reliance; strikes on plants; import dependence of 70 to 90 percent for stapleswater, power, food importsArab Center22; FAO5
Africalargest number of people facing hunger; El Niño food assistance needsfood, rain-fed farmingFAO1; World Bank9
South Asiafertiliser imports from the Gulf; remittance lossfertiliser, remittancesFAO5
East Asiaenergy import exposure; rice tradeenergy, riceIEA25; FAO7, post-close, context only
ASEANrice trade and El Niño exposurerice, waterFAO7, post-close, context only; NOAA48
Oceania-PacificEl Niño rainfall changes; island water supplywater, rain-fed cropsWMO19; WMO17

B.4Regional card: Gulf coast water and power

  • region
  • desalination
  • power
  • food imports
Systems in view
desalination, power, staple imports
Defining events
strikes and damage reports at Gulf plants from March 20262122
Couplings
ENE → WAT; TRD → FOO
Capability evidence
FAO route and reserve coordination work5
Gaps
verified plant damage; storage days of supply
Agenda items
N-01 · N-04

Desalination supplies about 76 percent of municipal drinking water across the Gulf Cooperation Council states [22].

WATER

Reliance on desalination

Gulf states import 70 to 90 percent of their staple food, and FAO is coordinating reserves with them [5].

FOOD

Import dependence

Responsibility for plant strikes is disputed between the parties and is not assessed here [21] [22].

LEARNING

Disputed reports

B.5How countries appear in the global edition

Countries enter the food, water and energy edition through the chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

Table B.5How countries appear in the global edition
Card fieldWhat it showsSource
WEFH+B stateeach core system against peer distribution bandsnational edition
Couplingsthe national dependency matrixnational edition
Risk objectsthe national risk portfolionational edition
Capability rungsthe national capability laddernational edition
Evidence ageoldest and newest source datesnational source register

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

26national

countries and unions

10regional

clusters

16global

flagship and sector

14strategic

systems reports

20frontier

technology reports

How to read a country card

  • Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
  • Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
  • Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
  • Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
Table B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
WaveCountries and unionsState
W0CanadaISSUED
W1United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, SwitzerlandPLANNED
W2Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, AustraliaPLANNED

B.6Licences

Table B.7Licences of each kind of material
MaterialLicence
TextCC BY 4.0
Dataon the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
FiguresNexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Mapsboundary source and licence printed on each plate
MetadataCC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and textThe source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.8This edition in every format
FormatKindStateWhat it isIdentifier
Web editionHTMLOn this siteDraft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print editionPDFAt releaseA4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator dataCSV · JSONOn this site15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1
FiguresSVG · PNGOn this site4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.FIG-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*
SlidesPDFNot recordedNo slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence briefHTML · PDFNot recordedNo evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOIDataCiteAt releaseConcept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack
The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut
DC-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check
14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections
Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 15FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  9. 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  10. 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  12. 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  13. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: EIA (ed.), Today in Energy (items to 3 November 2026; crude refinery inputs down 4.8 million barrels a day, or 6 percent, in the second quarter of 2026). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 8POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q3 2026 (about 20 percent of global LNG supply normally passes the Strait of Hormuz; about 110 bcm in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 9POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 edition (real food prices above headline inflation in about 22 percent of 150 countries, up from 14 percent; Yemen more than 18 million in acute food insecurity; El Niño very strong through early 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 7POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (release of 2 October 2026; 2026 production 2,979 million tonnes; stocks 950.0 million tonnes; stocks-to-use 31.7 percent). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 19POST-CLOSE, context only: WMO (ed.), Media centre releases on El Niño, 3 July to 8 October 2026 (titles only, including El Niño set to become very strong, 3 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 17WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2024 (page; one third of river basins with normal conditions; record glacier loss for a third year). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex B: Data appendix. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Food–Water–Energy Security (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Food, Water and Energy Security.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Water, Energy and Food

Water gives energy cooling water and hydropower (0.6); water gives food irrigation (0.8): the strongest relations between the sectors this subject joins.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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