Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 food, water and energy agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 food, water and energy edition.

6 min read0 figures6 tables5 notesNR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Food, water and energy fail together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the food, water and energy candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. N-01

    How would a closure of a major energy and fertiliser route that overlaps a strong El Niño spread through planting, water pumping and staple prices at the same time?

    INI-SR07-ROU-01 · route shock and El Niño compound test; first output: dependency analysis for six regions.

  2. N-02

    Which countries depend on one route or one supplier for fertiliser, fuel and staple imports?

    INI-SR07-DEP-02 · shared import dependence; first output: dependence register.

  3. N-03

    How much water does energy need, and how much energy does water need, on current data?

    INI-SR07-WEN-03 · water-energy flows; first output: flow table by region.

  4. N-04

    Where do desalination, power and food imports coincide in one exposed place?

    INI-SR07-DES-04 · coastal and desalination exposure; first output: exposure map.

  5. N-05

    Where do groundwater decline and irrigated food production overlap?

    INI-SR07-GRW-05 · groundwater and irrigated food; first output: overlay.

  6. N-06

    Which governments publish fertiliser stocks and trade on a comparable basis?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.

  7. N-07

    How do conflict and sanction measures change protection priorities for water and food supply?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. N-08

    Which food, water and energy capabilities have been tested in real shocks, and which are only planned?

    Nexus capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 food, water and energy portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-SR07-ROU-01Route shock and El Niño compound testInitiativeN-01PROPOSED
INI-SR07-DEP-02Shared import dependenceInitiativeN-02PROPOSED
INI-SR07-WEN-03Water-energy flowsInitiativeN-03PROPOSED
INI-SR07-DES-04Coastal and desalination exposureInitiativeN-04PROPOSED
INI-SR07-GRW-05Groundwater and irrigated foodInitiativeN-05PROPOSED
MSN-SR07-2027-01Route shock and El Niño Universe missionMissionN-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The food, water and energy edition reads national chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National food, water and energy chapters

    nexus reading in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector editions

    food, water, energy, health

    PLANNED · sector Baseline Editions

  3. 03

    Food-water-energy model

    the global system of systems for food, water and energy

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-01 · SR-03 supply chains · SR-02 lifeline systems

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    Food, Water and Energy Report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the food, water and energy candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the food, water and energy candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 food, water and energy annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-SR07-2027-01 · Route shock and El Niño Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
FOO-001 · hungersector editionshunger and diet costPUBLIC
FOO-002 · acute food insecurityINI-SR07-DEP-02shared import dependencePUBLIC
WAT-003 · water accessINI-SR07-WEN-03water-energy flowsPUBLIC
ENE-004 · energy accessINI-SR07-WEN-03water-energy flowsPUBLIC
WAT-005 · irrigationINI-SR07-GRW-05groundwater and irrigated foodPUBLIC
FOO-007 · fertiliser shockINI-SR07-ROU-01 · key F reviewroute shock and El Niño testPUBLIC
CON-010 · desalinationINI-SR07-DES-04coastal and desalination exposurePUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-SR07-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Food Price IndexFAOmonthlyFIN-008
Cereal Supply and Demand BriefFAOmonthlyFOO-009
Global Report on Food CrisesGNAFCannualFOO-002
ENSO diagnostic discussionNOAAmonthlyCLI-011
Today in EnergyEIAweeklyTRD-006
SDG indicator databaseUnited NationsannualWAT-003
Hunger HotspotsFAO and WFPtwice a yearFOO-002

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-SR07-001Tanker traffic and fertiliser prices after the 2026 route closure5CORROBORATEDTRD · FOOrisk object RSK-SR07-FOO-001
SIG-SR07-002Very strong El Niño forecast for northern fall and winter 2026-274849CORROBORATEDCLI · FOOresearch question N-01
SIG-SR07-003Strikes on Gulf plants in 20262122PARTIALWAT · ENEresearch question N-04

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  3. 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  4. 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Food–Water–Energy Security (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Food, Water and Energy Security.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Water, Energy and Food

Water gives energy cooling water and hydropower (0.6); water gives food irrigation (0.8): the strongest relations between the sectors this subject joins.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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