Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the food, water and energy baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Food, water and energy fail together
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Food
    3. 2.3 Water
    4. 2.4 Energy
    5. 2.5 Trade
    6. 2.6 Finance
    7. 2.7 CON
    8. 2.8 Climate forcing
    9. 2.9 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

By mid-April 2026 urea prices were up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil, and an estimated 1.5 to 3 million tonnes of monthly fertiliser trade was delayed.

Figure 2.1Urea price rise by mid-April 2026 (percent)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
United States+52%
Brazil+60%

Source: FAO5. Two markets only; the base month and price series are not given on the page.

Implication

Fertiliser is bought before planting. FAO names squeezed farm margins and lower future yields as one of four channels, and tells countries to avoid export limits on energy and fertiliser in the next 90 days5. Yield outcomes are not yet observed.

What would move it

Route reopening, fertiliser stocks, planting-season application rates and the yield outcome would each move this finding.

2.2Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-001

    FAO estimates that about 645 million people faced hunger in 2025, and that healthy diets are unaffordable for about 2.7 billion people.1

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002

    The Global Report on Food Crises 2026 counts about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 2025 across 47 countries and territories, with conflict the major driver.2

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

    By mid-April 2026 urea prices were up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil, and an estimated 1.5 to 3 million tonnes of monthly fertiliser trade was delayed.5

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

    In early September 2026 FAO forecast world cereal output at about 2.98 billion tonnes, about 2 percent below the 2025 record, with end-of-season stocks of 947.2 million tonnes; the report opened gives no stocks-to-use ratio.47

2.3Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-003

    About 2.1 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in 2024.13

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

    Agriculture takes about 69 percent of global freshwater withdrawals by one FAO page and 72 percent by another, and 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas with severe water constraints.1516

2.4Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    About 655 million people lacked electricity in 2024, and 92 percent of the world’s people had access.1112

2.5Trade

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-006

    The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about 20 million barrels of oil a day, about a quarter of seaborne oil trade, and tanker traffic fell by more than 90 percent after the 2026 crisis.5

2.6Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008

    The FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August 2026, 2.5 percent above August 2025, with world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier.46

2.7CON

  1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CON-010

    Desalination supplies about 76 percent of municipal drinking water in the Gulf Cooperation Council states, and 90 to 99 percent in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar; plants were reported damaged from March 2026.2221

2.8Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

    NOAA kept its El Niño Advisory on 10 September 2026 and gave a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27, as reported by two secondary pages; the CPC text for that date was not opened.4849

2.9Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is an energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño and high import dependence. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  5. 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 15FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 16FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 12United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  11. 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  14. 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Food–Water–Energy Security (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Food, Water and Energy Security.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskStrategic Systems

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

Sector signature

The sectors behind Food, Water and Energy Security.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Water, Energy and Food

Water gives energy cooling water and hydropower (0.6); water gives food irrigation (0.8): the strongest relations between the sectors this subject joins.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices