- Food, Water and Energy Security 2026
- Chapter 8
Systems in depth
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Food, water and energy fail together
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
8.1Common causes
One cause can strike food, water and energy at once: a route closure, a conflict, a climate state or a price shock. The shared cause matters more than the sector.
| Instance | Mechanism in action | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conflict | major driver of acute food insecurity; 45 million more people at risk from the Middle East conflict | 23 | Reported |
| Route closure | tanker traffic fell by more than 90 percent | 5 | Reported |
| Climate state | very strong El Niño likely in northern fall and winter 2026-27 | 4849 | Reported |
| Price shock | FAO Food Price Index 2.5 percent above a year earlier, August 2026 | 46 | Reported |
Pathways in this mechanism
- TRD → ENE → FOO route closure
- CLI → FOO, WAT El Niño
- CON → FOO conflict
Evidence to bind in 2027
- common-cause tagging of shocks
- frequency of concurrent causes
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
- SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
- SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-01 Water
8.2Domino effects
A failure in one system removes an input from the next. Energy costs reach fertiliser, fertiliser reaches harvests, and fuel shortages reach water plants.
| Instance | Mechanism in action | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy to fertiliser | higher energy costs and route closure lift urea prices | 5 | Reported |
| Fuel to water | fuel shortages threaten water systems serving about 3 million people in Yemen | 23 | Reported |
| Import costs to hunger | import-dependent states face higher staple costs | 59 | Inferred |
| Power to desalination | co-located plants lose power and water when struck | 2122 | Reported |
Pathways in this mechanism
- ENE → FOO
- ENE → WAT
- FIN → FOO
Evidence to bind in 2027
- sequence timing of shocks
- yield response to input prices
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
- SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
- SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-01 Water
8.3Inter-systemic feedbacks
Food, water and energy also act back on each other. Farming takes most freshwater, water needs power, and high prices change what countries do with trade.
| Instance | Mechanism in action | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farming to water | irrigation takes most withdrawals | 1516 | Reported |
| Water to energy | cooling and hydropower tie energy to water | 29 | Inferred |
| Prices to trade policy | FAO urges countries to avoid export limits on energy and fertiliser | 5 | Reported |
| Refining to supply | refinery inputs fell 6 percent in the second quarter of 2026 | 20 | Reported |
Pathways in this mechanism
- FOO → WAT
- WAT → ENE
- FIN → TRD
Evidence to bind in 2027
- water-energy flows, current
- export restriction tracking
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
- SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
- SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-01 Water
8.4Shared vulnerabilities
Different systems share the same weak points: one route, one supplier, one coastal plant, or one over-drawn aquifer.
| Instance | Mechanism in action | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| One route | about a quarter of seaborne oil trade passes one strait | 5 | Reported |
| One supplier | Bangladesh sources 53 percent of fertiliser from the Gulf | 5 | Reported |
| Coastal plants | desalination and power are co-located and exposed | 2122 | Reported |
| Aquifers | groundwater decline in food-producing regions; not consolidated here | 35 | Expert input |
Pathways in this mechanism
- TRD → ENE, FOO
- ENE → WAT
- WAT → FOO
Evidence to bind in 2027
- storage days of supply
- groundwater on one scale
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
- SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
- SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-01 Water
8.5Thresholds and tipping
A system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Stocks, plant capacity and famine conditions are such thresholds for food, water and energy.
| Instance | Mechanism in action | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grain stocks | world cereal stocks forecast at 947.2 million tonnes, 2026/27 | 47 | Reported |
| Famine conditions | two famines confirmed in 2025 | 3 | Reported |
| Water cooperation | only 43 of 153 sharing countries have arrangements at 90 percent or more | 13 | Reported |
| Compound shocks | cascades can become abrupt when shocks overlap | 4445 | Inferred |
Pathways in this mechanism
- FOO → HLT famine
- WAT → FOO shared waters
- ENE → WAT plant capacity
Evidence to bind in 2027
- local stock thresholds
- cascade thresholds at operating scale
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
- SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
- SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-01 Water
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 3WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis (page; 266 million in crisis-level hunger or worse; 45 million at risk from the Middle East conflict; two famines confirmed in 2025 in Gaza and Sudan). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 23POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water systems serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children’s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 edition (real food prices above headline inflation in about 22 percent of 150 countries, up from 14 percent; Yemen more than 18 million in acute food insecurity; El Niño very strong through early 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Water-Energy Nexus (World Energy Outlook excerpt), cited from memory; the IEA page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20POST-CLOSE, context only: EIA (ed.), Today in Energy (items to 3 November 2026; crude refinery inputs down 4.8 million barrels a day, or 6 percent, in the second quarter of 2026). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buldyrev, S.V. et al., Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks, Nature 464, 1025 to 1028, 2010, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back