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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables14 notesNR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Food, water and energy fail together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

FOO · Hunger

People facing hunger

645million

FAO estimate for 2025.

Reported2025FAO SOFI1

FOO · Food crises

People in acute food insecurity

266million

47 countries and territories.

Reported2025GRFC2

WAT · Water

People without safely managed drinking water

2.1billion

sanitation: 3.4 billion.

Reported2024UN SDG 613

ENE · Energy access

People without electricity

655million

92 percent of people had access.

Reported2024Tracking SDG71112

TRD · Route shock

Fall in tanker traffic after the crisis

>90percent

strait carries about a quarter of seaborne oil.

Reported2026FAO5

FIN · Prices

FAO Food Price Index

133.3points

2.5 percent above August 2025.

Reported2026FAO46

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through food, water and energy, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries food, water and energy risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATAbout 2.1 billion people lack safely managed drinking water; Gulf states rely on desalination.ENE → WATReported EQL 4
ENEEnergy route shock in 2026; 655 million people without electricity in 2024.ENE → allReported EQL 4
FOOAbout 645 million people faced hunger in 2025; 266 million in acute food insecurity.the core systemReported EQL 4
HLTUnsafe water and food shape child nutrition and disease; not consolidated here.WAT, FOO → HLTInferred EQL 2
BIOWetlands and soils buffer water and yield; evidence not consolidated here.BIO → WATExpert input EQL 2
CLIA very strong El Niño was rated likely for northern fall and winter 2026-27 on 10 September 2026.CLI → FOO, WATReported EQL 3
INFPumping, treatment and desalination plants depend on power and fuel.ENE → INF → WATInferred EQL 3
FINFAO Food Price Index at 133.3 in August 2026, 2.5 percent above a year earlier.FIN ↔ FOOReported EQL 3
DATMarket monitoring of shipping and prices supports early warning; no consolidated series here.DAT → FOOExpert input EQL 2
AICNo consolidated link between digital load and water or food here.AIC → ENEExpert input EQL 2
MINFertiliser inputs are mined or made from gas; no consolidated series here.MIN → FOOInferred EQL 2
TRDTanker traffic through the strait fell by more than 90 percent; Black Sea shipping constrained.TRD → ENE, FOOReported EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on food, water and energy, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemone route shock reaches fuel, fertiliser and food5energy and fertiliser route closurePARTIAL
GS-01Water2.1 billion lack safe drinking water13desalination and pumping lossGOOD
GS-02Energy655 million without electricity11route closure and price spikeGOOD
GS-03Food and agrifood645 million faced hunger1input shock and droughtGOOD
GS-04Healthwater and food shape nutrition and diseaseunsafe water in crisesTHIN
GS-05Finance and economyFAO Food Price Index 133.3 in August 202646import bills and remittance loss5PARTIAL
GS-06Developmenthunger concentrates in Africa and conflict settings2weak buffersPARTIAL
GS-07Climatevery strong El Niño likely in northern fall and winter 2026-2748drought and floodGOOD
GS-08Disasterone third of river basins normal in 202417concurrent hazardsPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructureplants and fuel supply for water systems hit23power loss at water plantsPARTIAL
GS-10Citiesdense dependence on piped water and powermulti-service outageTHIN
GS-11Biodiversitywetlands and soils buffer water and yieldloss of buffersTHIN
GS-12Earth observationcrop and water monitoring support early warningdata gapsTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalmarket and shipping monitoring5disinformation on supplyTHIN
GS-14Policywater rights and conflict protections3637implementation gapsPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencenexus science is established3334data at operating scalePARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 12United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  8. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
  9. 17WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2024 (page; one third of river basins with normal conditions; record glacier loss for a third year). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 23POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water systems serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children’s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, resolution 64/292, The human right to water and sanitation, 28 July 2010, cited from memory; the document viewer returned navigation text only. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), articles 54 and 56, 1977, cited from memory; the ICRC page returned no text. Observation year 1977. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bazilian, M. et al., Considering the energy, water and food nexus: towards an integrated modelling approach, Energy Policy 39(12), 7896 to 7906, 2011, cited from memory; the publisher page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hoff, H., Understanding the Nexus: background paper for the Bonn 2011 Conference, The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 2011, cited from memory; the SEI page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Food–Water–Energy Security (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Food, Water and Energy Security.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Water, Energy and Food

Water gives energy cooling water and hydropower (0.6); water gives food irrigation (0.8): the strongest relations between the sectors this subject joins.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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