- Food, Water and Energy Security 2026
- Chapter 5
Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Food, water and energy fail together
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
5.1Assumptions
Scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.
- Baseline
- the 2026 reference state in this edition
- Drivers
- a prolonged closure of a major energy and fertiliser route in a planting season that coincides with a strong El Niño
- Analogues
- the 2026 route closure; the El Niño outlook for 2026 and 2027548
- Interventions
- none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
- Run state
- narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027
5.2The cascade, step by step
- 1
TRD → ENE
tanker traffic collapses; fuel and gas prices rise
2026
- 2
ENE → FOO
fertiliser prices rise and shipments are delayed before planting
2026
- 3
CLI → FOO
El Niño disturbs rainfall in rain-fed regions
2026 · 2027
- 4
ENE → WAT
fuel and power shortages reduce pumping and desalination
2026
- 5
FIN → FOO
import bills rise and remittances fall; staple costs rise
2026
- 6
FOO → HLT
hunger rises in conflict and import-dependent settings
2027
5.3The scenario as a table of steps
How the shock in scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01 would travel through Food, Water and Energy Security’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Trade to energy | Tanker traffic collapses; fuel and gas prices rise. Analogue or source: 2026. | Edition SR-07, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01, step 1 |
| 02 Energy to food | Fertiliser prices rise and shipments are delayed before planting. Analogue or source: 2026. | Edition SR-07, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01, step 2 |
| 03 Climate to food | El Niño disturbs rainfall in rain-fed regions. Analogue or source: 2026 · 2027. | Edition SR-07, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01, step 3 |
| 04 Energy to water | Fuel and power shortages reduce pumping and desalination. Analogue or source: 2026. | Edition SR-07, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01, step 4 |
| 05 Finance to food | Import bills rise and remittances fall; staple costs rise. Analogue or source: 2026. | Edition SR-07, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01, step 5 |
| 06 Food to health | Hunger rises in conflict and import-dependent settings. Analogue or source: 2027. | Edition SR-07, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01, step 6 |
A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Food, Water and Energy Security 2026, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01 (2026); Food, Water and Energy Security 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back