- Food, Water and Energy Security 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Food, water and energy fail together
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 food, water and energy readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading food, water and energy as one coupled system. Common causes recur across the three, shocks spread through fuel, fertiliser and trade, and thresholds such as stocks, plant capacity and famine conditions limit recovery. Evidence is strongest for single series and weakest for cross-system flows.
FOO-007 · FOO-009 · WAT-005 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people the problem arrives as a higher grocery bill, a dry tap or a power cut. The baseline asks that public debate treat food, water and energy as linked, and keep the people who face acute hunger in view.
FOO-001 · FOO-002 · WAT-003
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Price and import-bill stress is visible, and fertiliser and water plants are the exposed assets465. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-008 · FOO-007
NEXUS
Synthesis
Food, water and energy are well described one series at a time and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind fertiliser and water-energy flows, test the route shock and El Niño overlap, and map stock and plant thresholds before the next large shock.
SYS-012 · N-01 · N-03
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for food, water and energy. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Reports strategic desks | food, water and energy chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness | strategic editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Energy grows and moves food, water irrigates it, and power makes water usable. Treating each ministry alone understates how a fault in one becomes a fault in all. This edition reads the system.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
One system, three ministries
World cereal stocks are not thin, yet prices rose and acute crises persist. Global averages hide local shortages, and the buffer that counts is the one near the people at risk.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Buffers matter more than averages
Drinking water, irrigation and desalination all need power and, in conflict, protection. Law protects the objects people need to survive, but reports of damage are still unverified.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Water is a security input
The 2026 shock arrived first in fertiliser and food prices and in import bills. The yield and hunger outcomes follow later, and this edition does not forecast them.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Prices carry the shock
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 food, water and energy readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Global risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN General Assembly resolution 64/292 on the right to water and sanitation36 | United Nations | global | ADOPTED 2010 | right to water |
| Additional Protocol I, articles 54 and 5637 | Geneva Conventions | global | IN FORCE | objects indispensable to survival |
| UN Watercourses Convention 199738 | United Nations | global | IN FORCE | shared waters |
| Helsinki Water Convention 199239 | UNECE | regional | IN FORCE | transboundary waters |
| ISO 14046 water footprint42 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | water footprint |
| Right to Food Guidelines43 | FAO | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | food security policy |
| SDG 2 targets14 | United Nations | global | ADOPTED 2015 | zero hunger |
| SDG 6 targets13 | United Nations | global | ADOPTED 2015 | water and sanitation |
| SDG 7 targets12 | United Nations | global | ADOPTED 2015 | energy access |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers food, water and energy assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about the world’s food, water and energy systems and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- FAO and UN agency reports; indicator databases; market monitors; peer-reviewed nexus and groundwater literature
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bazilian et al.33 | journal article | 2011 | framework | energy, water and food nexus |
| Hoff34 | conference report | 2011 | framework | nexus approach |
| Jasechko et al.35 | journal article | 2024 | supports | groundwater decline |
| IPCC AR6 Working Group II32 | assessment report | 2022 | context | climate impacts on food |
| Zscheischler et al.45 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| Buldyrev et al.44 | journal article | 2010 | framework | cascading failure |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFI 20261 | FAO and partners | 2026 | supports | hunger and diet cost |
| Global Report on Food Crises 20262 | GNAFC | 2026 | supports | acute food insecurity |
| Hunger Hotspots, June to November 20264 | FAO and WFP | 2026 | supports | early warning |
| World Water Development Report 202626 | UNESCO for UN-Water | 2026 | context | water access |
| Turning the Tide28 | Global Commission on the Economics of Water | 2023 | context | water demand gap |
| Progress on household water, sanitation and hygiene27 | WHO and UNICEF | 2025 | context | access series |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDG 6 indicators13 | United Nations | 2026 | supports | water and sanitation |
| SDG 7 indicators12 | United Nations | 2026 | supports | energy access |
| SDG 2 indicators14 | United Nations | 2026 | supports | hunger indicators |
| Tracking SDG711 | IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank, WHO | 2026 | supports | electricity access |
| AQUASTAT water use15 | FAO | 2024 | supports | withdrawal shares |
| FAO Food Price Index, August46 | FAO | 2026 | supports | prices |
| Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, early September47 | trade press report | 2026 | supports | stocks |
| Commodity Markets Outlook8 | World Bank | 2026 | supports | price outlook |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas Market Report, Q3 202625 | IEA | 2026 | context | LNG route disruption |
| Water-energy nexus29 | IEA | 2016 | context | water for energy |
| Today in Energy20 | EIA | 2026 | supports | refinery inputs |
| State of the world’s land and water resources30 | FAO | 2021 | context | land and water |
| Agrifood systems emissions31 | FAO | 2022 | context | emissions share |
| ENSO diagnostic discussion, 10 September4849 | NOAA, secondary reports | 2026 | supports | El Niño outlook |
| Gulf desalination reporting2122 | press and think tanks | 2026 | context | strikes on plants |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, resolution 64/292, The human right to water and sanitation, 28 July 2010, cited from memory; the document viewer returned navigation text only. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), articles 54 and 56, 1977, cited from memory; the ICRC page returned no text. Observation year 1977. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses, United Nations, 1997, cited from memory. Observation year 1997. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Helsinki, 1992), UNECE, cited from memory. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 14046:2014, Environmental management: water footprint, principles, requirements and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), Voluntary Guidelines to Support the Progressive Realization of the Right to Adequate Food in the Context of National Food Security, cited from memory. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 2 facts and figures (page; 8.2 percent undernourished and about 2.3 billion moderately or severely food insecure in 2024; 15.3 percent of countries with moderately to abnormally high food prices in 2024). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Newsroom items of 29 and 30 October 2026 (updated land, soil and water guidance for COP17; El Niño and Rift Valley fever alert). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bazilian, M. et al., Considering the energy, water and food nexus: towards an integrated modelling approach, Energy Policy 39(12), 7896 to 7906, 2011, cited from memory; the publisher page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hoff, H., Understanding the Nexus: background paper for the Bonn 2011 Conference, The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 2011, cited from memory; the SEI page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, chapter 5 on food, fibre and other ecosystem products, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buldyrev, S.V. et al., Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks, Nature 464, 1025 to 1028, 2010, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (page of 17 June 2026; 13 hotspots; highest concern Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen and Palestine). Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNESCO for UN-Water (eds.), United Nations World Water Development Report 2026: Water for All People (women and girls spend about 250 million hours a day collecting water; about 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water), taken from search-result summaries; the UNESCO and UN-Water pages returned errors. UNESCO, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Global Commission on the Economics of Water, Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action (2023; projected 40 percent shortfall in freshwater supply by 2030 without action), taken from press summaries. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000 to 2024: special focus on inequalities (Joint Monitoring Programme, August 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the WHO page returned an error and the report exceeded the size limit. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q3 2026 (about 20 percent of global LNG supply normally passes the Strait of Hormuz; about 110 bcm in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Water-Energy Nexus (World Energy Outlook excerpt), cited from memory; the IEA page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20POST-CLOSE, context only: EIA (ed.), Today in Energy (items to 3 November 2026; crude refinery inputs down 4.8 million barrels a day, or 6 percent, in the second quarter of 2026). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture (SOLAW 2021), cited from memory; the page returned an error; no figure used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems (FAOSTAT analytical brief), cited from memory; the page returned an error; no figure used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back