Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Food, water and energy fail together
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Gap between the two FAO withdrawal shares for agriculture | 72 − 69 | 3 percentage points |
| (2) | Share of people with access to electricity | 100 − 8 | 92 percent as published |
| (3) | Hunger count relative to acute food insecurity | 645 ÷ 266 | ≈ 2.4 |
| (4) | Urea rise gap between Brazil and the United States | 60 − 52 | 8 percentage points |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Food-Water-Energy Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-SR07-FWE · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent food, water and energy as a coupled system and the mechanisms by which stress spreads between fuel, fertiliser, irrigation, drinking water and staple food
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
5strong
documented within one season
3moderate
documented, buffered
12weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 49 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 food, water and energy annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Food-Water-Energy Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunger estimate | 2025 | Jul 2026 | annual | SOFI 2027 |
| Acute food insecurity | 2025 | Apr 2026 | annual | GRFC 2027 |
| Route shock statement | to Apr 2026 | 28 Apr 2026 | one-off | FAO updates |
| Food Price Index | Aug 2026 | 4 Sep 2026 | monthly | next monthly release |
| Cereal brief | 2026/27 | Sep 2026 | monthly | next monthly release |
| Electricity access | 2024 | Jun 2026 | annual | Tracking SDG7 2027 |
| Water access | 2024 | 2026 | annual | next SDG update |
| El Niño outlook | Oct 2026 | 8 Oct 2026 | monthly | 12 Nov 2026 |
| Price outlook | Oct 2026 | Oct 2026 | twice a year | Apr 2027840 |
| Gulf plant damage | 2026 | Mar to Apr 2026 | per event | not verified |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Food | GOOD | trend on a common basis |
| Water | PARTIAL | groundwater on one scale |
| Energy | GOOD | clean cooking, current count |
| Fertiliser | THIN | stocks and trade |
| Trade routes | PARTIAL | flows by commodity |
| Climate state | GOOD | yield outcomes |
| Conflict and water | THIN | verified plant damage |
| Finance of resilience | THIN | import-bill estimates |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Fertiliser trade volumes and stocks, current, on a common basis | FAO, IFA and national statistics | not retrieved; the FAO statement gives a delayed range only5 |
| Base month and price series behind the urea price rises | FAO and market reporters | the FAO statement gives percentages only; two markets are named |
| World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook fertiliser forecast for 2026 | World Bank, October 202640 | the page opened gives no fertiliser figure and search summaries disagree (14 percent and about 31 percent) |
| SOFI 2026 prevalence and 2030 projection | FAO SOFI 2026 full report41 | only the landing page was opened; the prevalence and projection come from search summaries |
| Revision of the 2024 hunger estimate between SOFI editions | FAO SOFI 2025 and 20261441 | the UN SDG page gives 8.2 percent for 2024; a search summary of SOFI 2026 gives 8.1 percent |
| GRFC 2026 share of analysed population in 2024 | GRFC 2026 report2 | the page opened gives 22.3 percent; search summaries give 22.7 percent |
| Verified damage to Gulf power and desalination plants | national authorities and independent assessments2122 | press and think-tank reports only; strikes are disputed between parties |
| Desalination share of drinking water for the UAE | national statistics and DesalData | the think-tank page gives 42 percent while other reports give about 90 percent |
| Clean cooking count for 2024 | Tracking SDG7 2026 report1112 | the UN page gives 75 percent access but no count; the report PDF returned an access error |
| Groundwater depletion on one scale across food-producing regions | peer-reviewed series35 | the paper was not opened |
| Water used for energy and energy used for water, current values | IEA and national statistics29 | the IEA page returned an access error |
| Crop yield outcomes of the 2026 input shock and El Niño | FAO, USDA and national agencies | not yet observed; the USDA WASDE page gave no figures |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the FAO Director-General on 28 April 2026. One-off. Role: binds FOO-007 and TRD-006. Coverage: global. The page was read in full; it gives percentages and ranges only.
EVD-SR07-001
FAO statement on the Strait of Hormuz crisis5
Issued by the Global Network Against Food Crises. Annual. Role: binds FOO-002. Coverage: 47 countries and territories. The landing page was read; the full report was not opened.
EVD-SR07-002
Global Report on Food Crises 2026 landing page2
| Dimension | EVD-SR07-001 | EVD-SR07-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | two markets and a delay range | countries with analysed data only |
| Timeliness | about 2 weeks after mid-April | about 4 months after the year |
| Revision | no revision noted | year-on-year share differs across summaries |
| Method transparency | base month not stated | IPC and CH classification |
| External validation | not assessed | multi-agency review |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| AQUASTAT | FAO global information system on water and agriculture |
| ENSO | El Niño Southern Oscillation |
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |
| GCC | Gulf Cooperation Council |
| GRFC | Global Report on Food Crises |
| IPC | Integrated Food Security Phase Classification |
| LNG | liquefied natural gas |
| SDG | Sustainable Development Goal |
| SOFI | The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World |
| WFP | World Food Programme |
| WMO | World Meteorological Organization |
| NOAA | US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-SR07-FWE-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Regional notes | regional food, water and energy cards | WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: stocks-to-use ratio
- Construct
- world cereal ending stocks as a share of annual utilisation
- Unit
- percent
- Method
- supply and demand balance compiled by FAO
- Source
- FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief7, post-close, context only
- Uncertainty
- revised monthly; regional distribution of stocks differs
- Known limits
- a global ratio does not show stocks near people at risk
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 8POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, fertiliser forecast (search summaries give a rise of 14 percent in 2026 and, in two Ghana outlets, about 31 percent), taken from search-result summaries; the page opened gives no fertiliser figure. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), SOFI 2026 headline statistics (prevalence of hunger 7.8 percent in 2025, 8.1 percent in 2024; 2.1 billion moderately or severely food insecure; 510 to 520 million facing hunger in 2030), taken from search-result summaries; the full report was not opened. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 2 facts and figures (page; 8.2 percent undernourished and about 2.3 billion moderately or severely food insecure in 2024; 15.3 percent of countries with moderately to abnormally high food prices in 2024). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Water-Energy Nexus (World Energy Outlook excerpt), cited from memory; the IEA page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (release of 2 October 2026; 2026 production 2,979 million tonnes; stocks 950.0 million tonnes; stocks-to-use 31.7 percent). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back