Data appendix
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Food, water and energy fail together
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
B.1The indicator set
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| People facing hunger | 645 | million | 2025 | Reported | 1 |
| People unable to afford a healthy diet | 2.7 | billion | 2025 | Reported | 1 |
| People in acute food insecurity | 266 | million | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| Countries and territories in the GRFC | 47 | count | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| People without safely managed drinking water | 2.1 | billion | 2024 | Reported | 13 |
| People without safely managed sanitation | 3.4 | billion | 2024 | Reported | 13 |
| People without electricity | 655 | million | 2024 | Reported | 11 |
| Agriculture share of withdrawals | 69 to 72 | percent | not stated | Reported | 1516 |
| Fall in tanker traffic after the crisis | >90 | percent | 2026 | Reported | 5 |
| Urea price rise, United States | 52 | percent | 2026 | Reported | 5 |
| Urea price rise, Brazil | 60 | percent | 2026 | Reported | 5 |
| FAO Food Price Index, August | 133.3 | points | 2026 | Reported | 46 |
| World cereal stocks, 2026/27 forecast | 947.2 | million tonnes | 2026 | Reported | 47 |
| GCC desalination share of municipal water | 76 | percent | 2023 | Reported | 22 |
| Chance of a very strong El Niño, northern fall and winter 2026-27 | >90 | percent | 2026 | Reported | 4849 |
B.2Global source register
The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.
Domains bound by the register
- FOO
- WAT
- ENE
- CLI
- FIN
- TRD
- CON
- HLT
- MIN
- INF
| Source | Category | Coverage | Period | Cadence | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAO SOFI 20261 | UN agency | global | 2025 | annual | hunger |
| GRFC 20262 | multi-agency network | 47 countries and territories | 2025 | annual | acute food insecurity |
| FAO Hormuz statement5 | UN agency | global | 2026 | one-off | route shock |
| FAO Food Price Index, August46 | UN agency | global | 2026 | monthly | prices |
| FAO cereal brief, September47 | trade press | global | 2026 | monthly | stocks |
| Tracking SDG711 | multi-agency | global | 2024 | annual | electricity access |
| UN SDG 613 | UN statistics | global | 2024 | annual | water access |
| FAO AQUASTAT15 | UN agency | global | not stated | periodic | water use |
| NOAA ENSO discussion, 10 September4849 | secondary reports | global | 2026 | monthly | climate state |
| Arab Center analysis22 | think tank | Gulf | 2023 | one-off | desalination share |
B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters
Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.
| Region | Principal hazards | Systems most exposed | Baseline evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | fertiliser prices; hurricane-season energy exposure | fuel, fertiliser, grain | FAO5; EIA20 |
| South America | fertiliser import costs; El Niño drought and flood | fertiliser, rain-fed crops | FAO5; NOAA48 |
| Europe | gas prices and energy costs | energy, fertiliser | World Bank8; IEA25 |
| Eurasia | Black Sea shipping constraints | grain trade | trade press47 |
| Middle East and North Africa | desalination reliance; strikes on plants; import dependence of 70 to 90 percent for staples | water, power, food imports | Arab Center22; FAO5 |
| Africa | largest number of people facing hunger; El Niño food assistance needs | food, rain-fed farming | FAO1; World Bank9 |
| South Asia | fertiliser imports from the Gulf; remittance loss | fertiliser, remittances | FAO5 |
| East Asia | energy import exposure; rice trade | energy, rice | IEA25; FAO7, post-close, context only |
| ASEAN | rice trade and El Niño exposure | rice, water | FAO7, post-close, context only; NOAA48 |
| Oceania-Pacific | El Niño rainfall changes; island water supply | water, rain-fed crops | WMO19; WMO17 |
B.4Regional card: Gulf coast water and power
- region
- desalination
- power
- food imports
- Systems in view
- desalination, power, staple imports
- Defining events
- strikes and damage reports at Gulf plants from March 20262122
- Couplings
- ENE → WAT; TRD → FOO
- Capability evidence
- FAO route and reserve coordination work5
- Gaps
- verified plant damage; storage days of supply
- Agenda items
- N-01 · N-04
Desalination supplies about 76 percent of municipal drinking water across the Gulf Cooperation Council states [22].
WATER
Reliance on desalination
Gulf states import 70 to 90 percent of their staple food, and FAO is coordinating reserves with them [5].
FOOD
Import dependence
Responsibility for plant strikes is disputed between the parties and is not assessed here [21] [22].
LEARNING
Disputed reports
B.5How countries appear in the global edition
Countries enter the food, water and energy edition through the chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.
| Card field | What it shows | Source |
|---|---|---|
| WEFH+B state | each core system against peer distribution bands | national edition |
| Couplings | the national dependency matrix | national edition |
| Risk objects | the national risk portfolio | national edition |
| Capability rungs | the national capability ladder | national edition |
| Evidence age | oldest and newest source dates | national source register |
Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme
26national
countries and unions
10regional
clusters
16global
flagship and sector
20frontier
technology reports
How to read a country card
- Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
- Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
- Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
- Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
| Wave | Countries and unions | State |
|---|---|---|
| W0 | Canada | ISSUED |
| W1 | United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland | PLANNED |
| W2 | Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia | PLANNED |
B.6Licences
| Material | Licence |
|---|---|
| Text | CC BY 4.0 |
| Data | on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0 |
| Figures | Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited |
| Maps | boundary source and licence printed on each plate |
| Metadata | CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it |
| Third-party data, figures and text | The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed |
| Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence. | |
B.7Formats and provenance
| Format | Kind | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Web edition | HTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print edition | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | |
| Indicator data | CSV · JSON | On this site | 15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| Figures | SVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-* |
| Slides | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | ||
| Evidence brief | HTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOI | DataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
- Edition pack
- The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
- Evidence cut
- DC-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
- Reproducibility
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Self-check
- 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
- Review
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
- Corrections
- Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
- 20POST-CLOSE, context only: EIA (ed.), Today in Energy (items to 3 November 2026; crude refinery inputs down 4.8 million barrels a day, or 6 percent, in the second quarter of 2026). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q3 2026 (about 20 percent of global LNG supply normally passes the Strait of Hormuz; about 110 bcm in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 edition (real food prices above headline inflation in about 22 percent of 150 countries, up from 14 percent; Yemen more than 18 million in acute food insecurity; El Niño very strong through early 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (release of 2 October 2026; 2026 production 2,979 million tonnes; stocks 950.0 million tonnes; stocks-to-use 31.7 percent). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19POST-CLOSE, context only: WMO (ed.), Media centre releases on El Niño, 3 July to 8 October 2026 (titles only, including El Niño set to become very strong, 3 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2024 (page; one third of river basins with normal conditions; record glacier loss for a third year). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back