Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
ENE · Energy
Global energy investment, 2026 estimate
3.4USD trillionelectricity supply and infrastructure 1.6 trillion.
Estimated2026IEA1
INF · Assets
US ten-year infrastructure gap
3.6USD trillionoverall grade C.
Reported2025ASCE2
CLI · Losses
Overall natural disaster losses
224USD billionabout USD 108 billion insured.
Reported2025Munich Re3
FIN · Risk transfer
Catastrophe bonds outstanding
61.3USD billionrecord issuance of 25.6 billion in 2025.
Reported2025Artemis tracker5
DEV · Adaptation
Adaptation finance tracked
65USD billionlikely an underestimate.
Reported2023CPI6
SYS · Cross-system
IMF resilience commitments
10.3SDR billion27 arrangements to end-February 2026.
Reported2026IMF9
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through resilience investment, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries resilience investment risk into each domain.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Water works compete with power for capital; no consolidated series here. | ENE → WAT | Expert input EQL 2 |
| ENE | Energy investment is estimated at USD 3.4 trillion in 2026; electricity supply and infrastructure at USD 1.6 trillion. | ENE → all | Reported EQL 4 |
| FOO | Food systems depend on energy and finance; adaptation finance for them is not consolidated here. | ENE → FOO | Expert input EQL 2 |
| HLT | Hospital upkeep sits in national budgets; not consolidated here. | ENE, WAT → HLT | Inferred EQL 2 |
| BIO | Natural infrastructure can buffer hazards; investment evidence not consolidated here. | BIO → WAT | Expert input EQL 2 |
| CLI | Overall disaster losses of about USD 224 billion in 2025; weather made up 92%. | CLI → INF | Reported EQL 4 |
| INF | US grade C and a USD 3.6 trillion ten-year gap. | INF → FIN | Reported EQL 3 |
| FIN | The core system: cat bonds at USD 61.3 billion and IMF resilience commitments of SDR 10.3 billion. | the core system | Reported EQL 4 |
| DAT | Public and private investment data are not on a common basis. | DAT ↔ FIN | Inferred EQL 2 |
| AIC | Approvals for new gas-fired plants rose to a 25-year high in 2025, in a year of strong power demand growth1. | AIC → ENE | Reported EQL 3 |
| MIN | Grid and storage build-out depends on refined minerals; the evidence sits in the sibling edition on critical minerals. | MIN → INF | Expert input EQL 2 |
| TRD | Investment flows follow trade in equipment; chokepoint data sit in the sibling edition on supply chains. | INF ↔ TRD | Inferred EQL 2 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on resilience investment, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | investment, losses and cover form one loop13 | loss year with tight budgets | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | water works compete for capital | deferred upkeep | THIN |
| GS-02 | Energy | USD 3.4 trillion estimated in 20261 | security-driven shifts in spending | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food and agrifood | adaptation finance for food systems | loss in a heat year | THIN |
| GS-04 | Health | hospital upkeep in national budgets | deferred upkeep | THIN |
| GS-05 | Finance and economy | USD 61.3 billion of cat bonds outstanding5 | cover withdrawal after losses | GOOD |
| GS-06 | Development | adaptation finance of USD 65 billion in 20236 | debt-heavy finance | PARTIAL |
| GS-07 | Climate | losses of about USD 224 billion in 20253 | floods, storms, wildfire | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | recovery fund pledges of USD 790.24 million8 | slow payment | PARTIAL |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | US grade C and USD 3.6 trillion gap2 | ageing assets | GOOD |
| GS-10 | Cities | dense exposure and local budgets | multi-hazard loss | THIN |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | natural buffers for assets | loss of buffers | THIN |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | hazard data underpin pricing and planning | data gaps | THIN |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | investment data systems | poor comparability | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | budget rules and climate finance goals715 | implementation gaps | PARTIAL |
| GS-15 | Science | adaptation economics is mature223839 | data at portfolio scale | PARTIAL |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation (11 pages, Paris, 28 May 2026; global energy investment USD 3.4 trillion in 2026 estimate against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015; electricity supply and infrastructure USD 1.6 trillion). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (overall grade C; ten-year investment gap USD 3.6 trillion; energy D+, drinking water C−, dams D+). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9IMF (ed.), 2026 Update of Resource Adequacy of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Resilience and Sustainability Trust, and Debt Relief Trusts, policy paper, 6 March 2026 (27 RSF arrangements; commitments SDR 10.3 billion, about USD 14 billion; five new RSFs in 2025 for SDR 3.4 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15Noerr (ed.), Bundestag approves exemption from the debt brake for defence spending and special funds for investments in infrastructure and climate protection (law-firm note; Bundestag vote 18 March 2025, Bundesrat 21 March 2025; EUR 100 billion for the Climate and Transformation Fund and EUR 100 billion for the states; twelve-year term). Noerr, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22World Resources Institute (ed.), 4 things to know about the global adaptation challenge (commentary of 10 September 2019 on the Global Commission on Adaptation; USD 1.8 trillion invested 2020 to 2030 could yield USD 7.1 trillion net benefits; benefit-cost ratios about 2 to 1 to 10 to 1). World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Walsh, B., Building Back Better: Achieving Resilience through Stronger, Faster, and More Inclusive Post-Disaster Reconstruction. World Bank, Washington, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rozenberg, J. and Fay, M., Beyond the Gap: How Countries Can Afford the Infrastructure They Need while Protecting the Planet. World Bank, Washington, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back