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Key findings

Twelve findings carry the resilience investment baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables15 notesNR-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Money meets risk
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Energy
    3. 2.3 Infrastructure
    4. 2.4 Climate forcing
    5. 2.5 Finance
    6. 2.6 Development
    7. 2.7 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A loss year that meets tight public budgets
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-007

Developing countries’ adaptation finance needs are put at USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030, while tracked adaptation finance was USD 65 billion in 2023.

Figure 2.1Adaptation finance: need and tracked flow (USD billion a year)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Need to 2030, upper end387
Need to 2030, lower end215
Tracked adaptation finance, 2023, all sources65

Sources: UN climate finance decision7; Climate Policy Initiative6. The need covers developing countries; the tracked flow covers all tracked sources. The bases differ and the bars show scale only.

Implication

The gap is wide on either basis, and tracked adaptation finance is a small part of climate finance. The 2035 goal of USD 300 billion a year covers all climate action, so it is not an adaptation figure67.

What would move it

The adaptation share of the 2035 goal, better tracking of private flows and a revised flow estimate would each move this finding.

2.2Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001

    The IEA estimates global energy investment at about USD 3.4 trillion in 2026, up from USD 2.6 trillion in 2015, with electricity supply and infrastructure at USD 1.6 trillion.1

2.3Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

    The 2025 US report card grades national infrastructure C, with a USD 3.6 trillion ten-year investment gap, energy at D+ and dams at D+.2

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-010

    Japan set a five-year plan of more than 20 trillion yen for fiscal 2026 to 2030, Australia committed AUD 1 billion over five years to June 2028, and the United States opened a USD 1 billion resilience grant round in March 2026.161911

2.4Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    Munich Re puts overall natural disaster losses in 2025 at about USD 224 billion, with about USD 108 billion insured; weather events made up 92% of overall losses.3

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

    The loss and damage fund reported USD 790.24 million pledged and USD 397.74 million received at 23 September 2025, from 27 contributors.8

2.5Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-004

    Swiss Re Institute reporting puts overall natural catastrophe losses in 2025 at USD 220 billion, about 49% insured, and notes that 80 to 90% of losses in emerging economies are typically uninsured.4

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

    Catastrophe bond issuance reached USD 25.6 billion in 2025 across 122 new deals, and the outstanding market reached USD 61.3 billion.5

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

    By end-February 2026 the IMF Board had agreed 27 resilience and sustainability arrangements with commitments of SDR 10.3 billion, about USD 14 billion.9

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

    Germany’s special fund sets EUR 100 billion for a climate fund and EUR 100 billion for the states over twelve years, the UK National Wealth Fund holds GBP 27.8 billion of capital, and the EIB Group Climate Bank Roadmap sets a target of EUR 30 billion for adaptation finance in 2026 to 2030.151344

2.6Development

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-006

    Climate Policy Initiative tracked USD 1.9 trillion of global climate finance in 2023, of which adaptation was USD 65 billion, a figure it says is likely an underestimate.6

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-007

    The 2024 climate finance decision sets a goal of at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035 for developing countries and puts their adaptation finance needs at USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030.7

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading test for 2027 is whether national portfolios fund upkeep and adaptation as well as new build, measured on one common basis. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation (11 pages, Paris, 28 May 2026; global energy investment USD 3.4 trillion in 2026 estimate against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015; electricity supply and infrastructure USD 1.6 trillion). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (overall grade C; ten-year investment gap USD 3.6 trillion; energy D+, drinking water C−, dams D+). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 16Tribune India (ed.), Japan approves 20 trillion yen plan for disaster resilient infrastructure (press agency report of 7 June 2025; more than 20 trillion yen over fiscal 2026 to 2030). Tribune India, Chandigarh. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 19NSW Government (ed.), Disaster Ready Fund (page on the Commonwealth programme; AUD 1 billion nationally over five years from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2028). New South Wales Government, Sydney. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 11FEMA (ed.), Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (programme page updated 3 September 2026; fiscal years 2024 and 2025 funding opportunity of USD 1 billion published 25 March 2026; applications closed 23 July 2026). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 4Artemis (ed.), report on the Swiss Re Institute sigma 1/2026 natural catastrophe figures for 2025 (insured losses USD 107 billion; overall losses USD 220 billion; about 49% insured; 92% of insured losses from secondary perils; 80 to 90% of losses typically uninsured in emerging economies). Read in this trade report, not in the sigma itself. Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 9IMF (ed.), 2026 Update of Resource Adequacy of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Resilience and Sustainability Trust, and Debt Relief Trusts, policy paper, 6 March 2026 (27 RSF arrangements; commitments SDR 10.3 billion, about USD 14 billion; five new RSFs in 2025 for SDR 3.4 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 15Noerr (ed.), Bundestag approves exemption from the debt brake for defence spending and special funds for investments in infrastructure and climate protection (law-firm note; Bundestag vote 18 March 2025, Bundesrat 21 March 2025; EUR 100 billion for the Climate and Transformation Fund and EUR 100 billion for the states; twelve-year term). Noerr, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 13National Wealth Fund (ed.), About us (capital commitment GBP 27.8 billion; mission to drive more than GBP 100 billion of finance; GBP 3 mobilised per GBP 1 invested over the long term). National Wealth Fund, Leeds. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 44EIB (ed.), EIB Group Climate Bank Roadmap Phase 2: 2026-2030 (publication page dated 3 October 2025; new target of EUR 30 billion for climate adaptation finance for 2026 to 2030, doubling 2021 to 2025 volumes). European Investment Bank, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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