Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 resilience investment agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 resilience investment edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Money meets risk
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A loss year that meets tight public budgets
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the resilience investment candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. P-01

    What share of each national portfolio funds upkeep and adaptation rather than new build, and can it be measured on one basis?

    INI-SR14-PRT-01 · portfolio resilience share; first output: common-basis table for national portfolios.

  2. P-02

    How much of tracked adaptation finance reaches national priorities, and how much is debt?

    INI-SR14-ADP-02 · adaptation finance tracking; first output: adaptation flow table.

  3. P-03

    Which assets need upkeep first, and where do asset condition and hazard exposure overlap?

    INI-SR14-MNT-03 · upkeep and exposure; first output: exposure overlay.

  4. P-04

    How much of disaster loss is covered by public or private cover, and how fast does cover pay?

    INI-SR14-RSK-04 · risk transfer and public cover; first output: cover and payout table.

  5. P-05

    How quickly does recovery money move from pledge to project?

    INI-SR14-LAD-05 · recovery finance flows; first output: pledge-to-payment chart.

  6. P-06

    Which governments publish resilience spending on a comparable basis?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.

  7. P-07

    How do energy security priorities change the resilience share of investment?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. P-08

    Which investment capabilities have been tested in real loss years, and which are only planned?

    Resilience investment capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 resilience investment portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-SR14-PRT-01Portfolio resilience shareInitiativeP-01PROPOSED
INI-SR14-ADP-02Adaptation finance trackingInitiativeP-02PROPOSED
INI-SR14-MNT-03Upkeep and exposureInitiativeP-03PROPOSED
INI-SR14-RSK-04Risk transfer and public coverInitiativeP-04PROPOSED
INI-SR14-LAD-05Recovery finance flowsInitiativeP-05PROPOSED
MSN-SR14-2027-01Loss-year Universe missionMissionP-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The resilience investment edition reads national portfolio chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National portfolio chapters

    investment reading in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector editions

    energy, finance, disaster, infrastructure

    PLANNED · sector Baseline Editions

  3. 03

    Resilience investment model

    the global system of investment and risk

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-02 lifelines · SR-05 fiscal resilience · SR-06 insurance and protection gaps

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    Resilience Investment Report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the resilience investment candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the resilience investment candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 resilience investment annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-SR14-2027-01 · Loss-year Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
ENE-001 · energy investmentsector editionsenergy investment tablesPUBLIC
INF-002 · asset conditionINI-SR14-MNT-03upkeep and exposurePUBLIC
CLI-003 · disaster lossesINI-SR14-RSK-04risk transfer and public coverPUBLIC
FIN-005 · cat bondsINI-SR14-RSK-04risk transfer and public coverPUBLIC
DEV-006 · adaptation financeINI-SR14-ADP-02adaptation finance trackingPUBLIC
CLI-008 · recovery fundsINI-SR14-LAD-05recovery finance flowsPUBLIC
INF-010 · national plansINI-SR14-PRT-01 · key F reviewportfolio resilience sharePUBLIC
SYS-012 · loss-year testMSN-SR14-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Energy investment reportIEAannualENE-001
Disaster loss figuresMunich Re and Swiss Re InstituteannualCLI-003
Cat bond market dataArtemis trackerquarterlyFIN-005
Climate finance landscapeClimate Policy InitiativebiennialDEV-006
Loss and damage fund reportsUNFCCC and the fundper Board meetingCLI-008
Resource adequacy papersIMFannualFIN-009
Grant round noticesnational agenciesper roundINF-010

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-SR14-001Record cat bond issuance in 20255CORROBORATEDFIN · CLIrisk object RSK-SR14-FIN-001
SIG-SR14-002Adaptation finance far below need67CORROBORATEDDEV · FINresearch question P-02
SIG-SR14-003Slow conversion of recovery pledges8PARTIALCLI · DEVresearch question P-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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