- Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
Contents
S.1Abstract
Resilience investment is the money that decides how well systems absorb shocks: grids, assets, adaptation, insurance and recovery funds. The 2025 and 2026 evidence shows large flows and large gaps at the same time. The IEA estimates global energy investment at about USD 3.4 trillion in 2026, with electricity supply and infrastructure at USD 1.6 trillion1. The 2025 US report card grades national infrastructure C with a USD 3.6 trillion ten-year gap2. Natural disasters caused about USD 224 billion of overall losses in 2025, of which about USD 108 billion was insured3. Catastrophe bonds reached a record USD 61.3 billion outstanding5. Adaptation finance tracked for 2023 was USD 65 billion, against costed needs of USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 203067. The loss and damage fund had USD 790.24 million pledged and USD 397.74 million received in September 20258. National portfolios use different units and periods: more than 20 trillion yen over five years in Japan, AUD 1 billion over five years in Australia and EUR 100 billion each for a climate fund and the states in Germany161915. This baseline reads these figures as mechanisms, not as a list. It places no country in a league table, rates no fund and recommends no investment.
S.2Key messages
Six readings that frame the resilience investment baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
Energy investment is estimated at USD 3.4 trillion in 2026; adaptation finance is a small part of climate finance.16
Is resilience investment growing?Reported
Grades are mixed: C overall in the 2025 US report card.2
Is the physical base sound?Reported
About USD 224 billion overall in 2025, about USD 108 billion insured.34
How large are the losses?Reported
Cat bonds stand at USD 61.3 billion; most losses in emerging economies are uninsured.54
How much risk is transferred?Reported
USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030, against USD 65 billion tracked in 2023.67
What do adaptation needs look like?Reported
About half of the pledges to the loss and damage fund had been received by September 2025.8
Does recovery money move fast?Reported
No: units, periods and scopes differ.16191518
Do national portfolios agree on a basis?Reported
The share of national portfolios that funds upkeep and adaptation. SCN-SR14-PRT-01
What will 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-007
Developing countries’ adaptation finance needs are put at USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030, while tracked adaptation finance was USD 65 billion in 2023.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Need to 2030, upper end | 387 | |
| Need to 2030, lower end | 215 | |
| Tracked adaptation finance, 2023, all sources | 65 |
Sources: UN climate finance decision7; Climate Policy Initiative6. The need covers developing countries; the tracked flow covers all tracked sources. The bases differ and the bars show scale only.
The gap is wide on either basis, and tracked adaptation finance is a small part of climate finance. The 2035 goal of USD 300 billion a year covers all climate action, so it is not an adaptation figure67.
S.4At a glance
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading resilience investment as one system.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people resilience investment shows up as a repaired road, a paid claim or a delayed grant.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Losses are large, risk transfer is growing, and adaptation finance is small beside need.
NEXUS
Synthesis
Investment is well described flow by flow and thinly measured as a system.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A baseline: the 2026 state of the world’s resilience investment and national portfolios and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.
What it is not
Not an investment rating, a fund recommendation, a credit view or an assessment of any government, bank or insurer. Budget, borrowing and investment decisions rest with parliaments, ministries, institutions and investors.
What comes next
National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 resilience investment edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation (11 pages, Paris, 28 May 2026; global energy investment USD 3.4 trillion in 2026 estimate against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015; electricity supply and infrastructure USD 1.6 trillion). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (overall grade C; ten-year investment gap USD 3.6 trillion; energy D+, drinking water C−, dams D+). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Tribune India (ed.), Japan approves 20 trillion yen plan for disaster resilient infrastructure (press agency report of 7 June 2025; more than 20 trillion yen over fiscal 2026 to 2030). Tribune India, Chandigarh. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19NSW Government (ed.), Disaster Ready Fund (page on the Commonwealth programme; AUD 1 billion nationally over five years from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2028). New South Wales Government, Sydney. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15Noerr (ed.), Bundestag approves exemption from the debt brake for defence spending and special funds for investments in infrastructure and climate protection (law-firm note; Bundestag vote 18 March 2025, Bundesrat 21 March 2025; EUR 100 billion for the Climate and Transformation Fund and EUR 100 billion for the states; twelve-year term). Noerr, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Artemis (ed.), report on the Swiss Re Institute sigma 1/2026 natural catastrophe figures for 2025 (insured losses USD 107 billion; overall losses USD 220 billion; about 49% insured; 92% of insured losses from secondary perils; 80 to 90% of losses typically uninsured in emerging economies). Read in this trade report, not in the sigma itself. Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Scroll (ed.), Budget 2026-27 proposes capital expenditure of Rs 12.2 lakh crore (report of 1 February 2026; 8.9% above the Rs 11.2 lakh crore budgeted for 2025-26; revised estimate Rs 10.9 lakh crore). Scroll.in, Mumbai. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9IMF (ed.), 2026 Update of Resource Adequacy of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Resilience and Sustainability Trust, and Debt Relief Trusts, policy paper, 6 March 2026 (27 RSF arrangements; commitments SDR 10.3 billion, about USD 14 billion; five new RSFs in 2025 for SDR 3.4 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back